It is good to discuss opinion polls and to treat them with skepticism, Cde Mpho, but I wonder if you are doing so?
You seem to be saying that the poll would be fine if it was taken today, and that the only thing wrong with it is that it was done prior to the Shikota jive (which is not yet a party and may never achieve that status, because it is primarily a negative, nuisance operation). Actually, opinion polls are full of statistical approximations and downright biased assumptions. Reading the fuller report (follow the link to Politicsweb for a longer version and from there to an even longer one on PDF if you wish) gives you some idea of Schlemmer's biasness. It seems that he bent over backwards to make the thing look optimistic for the right wing and bad for the ANC, but was not able to do so (other than to claim a massive increase for the DA). This is what gives it some credibility in my eyes. The sample was of about 2400 individuals, and is supposed to represent an electorate of tens of millions. Nevertheless, the fact that people are going out asking questions of people and reporting the results is a good thing, so long as it is done with a little bit of professional integrity. I don't agree with you that the internal unity of the ANC is the most important factor in the election contest. The most important factor for the time being is organization at local level, which none of the other parties have to anything like the extent of the ANC. Preserving and improving the local organization of the ANC is where YCLers should be contributing right now, in my opinion. In struggle! Domza, VC From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mpho Tabane Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 4:36 PM To: LINDA SCHALK; [email protected] Subject: [YCLSA Discussion] Re: Report on voter preferences Comrade Linda Your point in understood but what I was bringing across is that that report did not predict any breakaway activities nor did it predict a possible new party formation hence I saw lets use the report merely as a benchmark for impact anaylsis post July 08 and draw action plan from that point onward on impact management. I will not comment on whether the movement in "bleeding or not" but one thing I have learned over the years is ANC draws it strength from its internal unity,unshakable trust within which has got as this far and has taken ANC through the worse times than current one. on a lighter note I made a joke to couple of friends and said: " The South African Liberation struggle movement is pregnant and is about to give birth soon to Jnr called new party" Hahhahaa,this is a joke comrades I just hope your sense of humur can accommodate this we need more laughter these day in this trying times. On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 6:08 PM, LINDA SCHALK <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Mpho, the report was indeed compiled in july08 according to schlemer survey predicting where the mass movement will be standing post 2009 general elections,it revealed that the ANC will top,youre' comrade by saying that a lot has happened in our country politics,but it sounds like u're part sum people who believe tht the movement is bleeding and shud butt out whilst early,what i was bringing across is dat the party is firm. Mpho Tabane wrote: > Linda you are misleading Cdes this report !! It was compiled end of July and alot has happened politically between July and todate we cannot use this report wrt to current political affairs the only thing that can be done is the impact analysis of the current political status with reference to this report and work on that but bottomline this is not a true reflection of where politics are in SA at the current moment. > On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 2:58 PM, LINDA SCHALK < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > dear fellow cadres > i fully agree with dominic statements that new shikotas party will be @the bottom level/gutter along with all other opposition party--point of correction i dont think the movement has had any strong opposition, even if the shikotas can sleep in the same bed with helen zille or holomisa which i suspect,, the movement stands undefeated,,we as comrades should united and mobilise,,,,the survey results speak for its self > > AMANDLA MAQABANE --- On Tue, 11/4/08, Dominic Tweedie < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > From: Dominic Tweedie < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [YCLSA Discussion] Report on voter preferences > To: [email protected] Date: Tuesday, November 4, 2008, 10:51 AM > Schlemmer is an anti-communist liberal who hi-jacked his opinion-poll unit by privatisation from the HSRC. The full report is laced with his own opinions but the facts cannot so easily be hidden. ANC support is high enough to deliver a two-thirds majority and a three-quarters majority is within reach. So-called "voter apathy" has gone DOWN to 15% from 29%. There is no space for the Shikotas except at the expense of the DA. In my opinion the Shikotas have no chance and only exist to make short-term problems for the Alliance. Long-term, they are going to be down there with the UDM, Azapo, ACDP and PAC. What do you think, comrades? > Report on voter preferences > > Politicsweb, 3 November 2008 > > Extract from survey by Lawrence Schlemmer Markdata, July 2008 > > The Survey > > MarkData, an opinion polling and strategic research company that has operated as an independent private sector organisation since its separation from the statutory Human Sciences Research Council in 1996-1997, regularly undertakes surveys of political support patterns in South Africa and other African countries. Its political opinion surveys are based on two-stage stratified probability samples of adult voters in households in all communities throughout the country in both rural and urban areas, using census enumerator areas as a sampling frame. > > The current survey, which covers 2415 adult South Africans, is slightly larger than the 2250 of previous surveys and also incorporates a modified design intended to strengthen the sample size and reliability of results in opposition constituencies without sacrificing the relevance of results for the electorate as a whole. Hence, in the first stage of sampling, constituencies more likely to include opposition voters were given a slightly higher chance of being randomly selected than those that typically contain dominant majorities of governing party supporters, but subsequent to the completion of fieldwork the sampling results were re-weighted using appropriate post-weighting software in order to provide estimates of the overall national support patterns of political parties. > > > The Results: weighted and rectified > Party Support Patterns > > The following breakdown of party strengths emerged from the standard open-ended question posed: "Which political party will you vote for in the general election in 2009?" The results are presented in the table below compared with results in two previous surveys by MarkData. > > Table 1. Current strength of political parties compared with two previous surveys > > (The percentages in parenthesis exclude respondents not intending to vote or not responding in order to approximate an election outcome) > > Political party supported > May > 2008 > March > 2007 > March > 2004 > > % > (%) > % > (%) > % > (%) > ANC/SACP > 59,6 > (70,5) > 62,0 > (76,8) > 52,3 > (73,7) > PAC > 0,6 > (0,7) > 0,7 > (0,9) > 0,9 > (1,3) > NNP > - > - > 0,6 > (0,7) > 2,0 > (2,8) > DA > 17,4 > (20,6) > 9,9 > (12,3) > 7,9 > (11,2) > ID > 2,0 > (2,4) > 1,4 > (1,7) > 3,3 > (4,7) > UDM > 1,0 > (1,2) > 0,5 > (0,6) > 0,7 > (1,0) > IFP > 2,1 > (2,5) > 3,2 > (4,0) > 2,7 > (3,8) > FF+ > 0,5 > (0,6) > 0,4 > (0,5) > 0,2 > (0,3) > ACDP > 0,9 > (1,0) > 0,5 > (0,6) > 0,7 > (1,0) > Right wing parties > - > - > 0,2 > (0,2) > - > - > AZAPO > 0,4 > (0,5) > 0,3 > (0,4) > - > - > Other > 0,4 > (0,4) > 1,1 > (1,3) > 0,2 > (0,2) > (Total of party choices) > (100,4) > (100,0) > (100,0) > No choice (undecided, will not vote, not registered, not interested in politics, refuse) > 15,5 > - > 19,2 > 29,1 > TOTAL > 100,1 > 100,0 > 100,0 > Deviations from 100 due to rounding > > Comparisons of party strength have to be based on the second set of estimates for each year (the figures in brackets) that allow standardised comparisons with the uncertain voters removed. These figures also approximate election outcomes (it is a common procedure in electoral research to remove the uncertain voters and those who refuse to give a choice in order to estimate election outcomes). > > Hence, as voter attitudes stand at the moment, what may be predicted from these results is that the ANC majority in the next election will decline slightly to just over 70% and that the DA will consolidate its position as the major opposition to government, with results like the following: > > Party outcomes 2009: > > ANC/SACP > 70-71% > DA > 20-21% > ID > 2-3% > IFP > 2-3% > UDM > +/- 1% > ACDP > +/- 1% > PAC > < 1% > FF+ > < 1% > AZAPO > < 1% > Others > < 1% > > Broadly what the results in table 1 show is that the level of uncertainty among voters has declined from 2004. Currently only some 16% of the electorate does not make choices between parties in the survey interviews. There is a challenge for opposition parties, however, in that the motivation to vote among their supporters is slightly lower than that among ANC supporters: > > Table 2. Motivation to vote among party supporters > > Party > Voter motivation: > Will definitely/probably vote* > Total % of party > Supporters > ANC > 80% + 13% > 93% > ID > 52% + 37% > 89% > DA > 67% + 20% > 87% > ACDP > 67% + 19% > 86% > UDM > 74% + 7% > 81% > Other parties > 54% + 21% > 75% > IFP > 55% + 18% > 73% > FF+ > 29% + 41% > 70% > > * "Definitely" or "probably" is taken as a firmer intention to vote than other responses like will "possibly" vote or will probably or possibly not vote > > From Politicsweb at: > > http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?o id=108653&sn=Detail > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You are subscribed. This footer can help you. Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this message. 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