Dear Cde Mpho,
Thanks for keeping the dialogue going and for the interesting points you make. I can tell you that I heard Prof Schlemmer on SAFM this evening (business program after the 18h00 news) and he was asked what did he think would be the outcome, now that the Shikotas are in the race (actually they are not in the race because they have not even formed their party yet)? Schlemmer waffled a bit and then said that the Shikotas could get 20%, leaving the ANC with only 50% and perhaps without a majority! Therefore needing a coalition with one or more smaller parties, in order to form a government! Of course this is shameless, unprincipled speculation based on absolutely nothing. It’s a professorial thumbsuck. What you can get out of these opinion-poll exercises is limited. Opinion polls cannot predict subjective actions like the resignation of individuals. In fact the figures predict nothing. Only the interpretation of the figures predicts. Opinion polls are empirical if they are genuine, and simply useless if they are not genuine. What I like best in this one is that the “apathy” count has gone down to almost half what it was. “Analysts” such as Adam Habib were going on about the ANC losing support because of “squabbles”, even before the Shikota bolted. The analysts never had any basis for such an assertion and now they must see that empirically and statistically there is no basis for this idea. Actually, more public debate means more public interest, not less. If you are suggesting that the decision to recall TM was “emotional”, then I think you are completely wrong. The emotional part was in leaving him in office after Polokwane, for sentimental reasons. The decision to recall him was taken after a debate of many hours, as we all know. It was not done in a rush or done in anger. The contrary is true. He was given every respect and consideration, and the decision was a sober one. Yet TM still felt sore and sulked, and is still sulking. We can’t all be hostages of one man’s bruised ego. You write: “we cannot be naive to say because of that macro-decision ANC has now more supporters”. Why is it naïve? The problem about it is only that we don’t know yet. We will finally know when people cast their votes, next year. In the mean time, it is as likely as anything else that support has grown since TM has been recalled. TM never had a personal mass following. He is just not the type to have a relationship with the masses, whereas JZ is that type and maybe that is why TM disliked JZ so much that he would have JZ tormented by constant law-suits and endless “investigations”. In struggle, Domza From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mpho Tabane Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 6:12 PM To: [email protected] Subject: [YCLSA Discussion] Re: Report on voter preferences Comrade Domza When I said ANC draws its strength from internal unity I was not saying that in the context of up coming election I was merely pointing out we have been through alot as a movement and our internal unity has kept us focused over the years. Please dont get me wrong I am not shooting the report down I was merely stating it needs to be read and analysed in the correct context. Bottomline after the Polokwane conference ANC gain support of majority in the effort that ANC needed internal chage BUT recent macro-management decision that was made by NEC to recall Cmrd T.K from the highiest office of the State has created a major mix feelings amoungs Cdrs at all levels and people of SA at large and we cannot be naive to say because of that macro-decision ANC has now more supporters than immediately after the Polokwane conference. If you speak to MKVA members they will tell you that this is not knew to ANC when individuals internally break ranks by acting on emotions and breakaway,to be more specific prior 1990 during the struggle when MK camps received bad news of fallen cmdrs in the line of duty some of the MK members in the camps could not contain their anger and made demands to be released to go on the front line and fight acting out of emotions with no rational thinking of such actions in some cases it was very difficult for MK to mourn fallen members and still keep a cool head and keep to tactical discipline and some did breakway unfortunetly by acting on emotions when decisions where not going in their favour at the moment. On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 6:55 PM, Dominic Tweedie <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: It is good to discuss opinion polls and to treat them with skepticism, Cde Mpho, but I wonder if you are doing so? You seem to be saying that the poll would be fine if it was taken today, and that the only thing wrong with it is that it was done prior to the Shikota jive (which is not yet a party and may never achieve that status, because it is primarily a negative, nuisance operation). Actually, opinion polls are full of statistical approximations and downright biased assumptions. Reading the fuller report (follow the link to Politicsweb for a longer version and from there to an even longer one on PDF if you wish) gives you some idea of Schlemmer's biasness. It seems that he bent over backwards to make the thing look optimistic for the right wing and bad for the ANC, but was not able to do so (other than to claim a massive increase for the DA). This is what gives it some credibility in my eyes. The sample was of about 2400 individuals, and is supposed to represent an electorate of tens of millions. Nevertheless, the fact that people are going out asking questions of people and reporting the results is a good thing, so long as it is done with a little bit of professional integrity. I don't agree with you that the internal unity of the ANC is the most important factor in the election contest. The most important factor for the time being is organization at local level, which none of the other parties have to anything like the extent of the ANC. Preserving and improving the local organization of the ANC is where YCLers should be contributing right now, in my opinion. In struggle! Domza, VC From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mpho Tabane Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 4:36 PM To: LINDA SCHALK; [email protected] Subject: [YCLSA Discussion] Re: Report on voter preferences Comrade Linda Your point in understood but what I was bringing across is that that report did not predict any breakaway activities nor did it predict a possible new party formation hence I saw lets use the report merely as a benchmark for impact anaylsis post July 08 and draw action plan from that point onward on impact management. I will not comment on whether the movement in "bleeding or not" but one thing I have learned over the years is ANC draws it strength from its internal unity,unshakable trust within which has got as this far and has taken ANC through the worse times than current one. on a lighter note I made a joke to couple of friends and said: " The South African Liberation struggle movement is pregnant and is about to give birth soon to Jnr called new party" Hahhahaa,this is a joke comrades I just hope your sense of humur can accommodate this we need more laughter these day in this trying times. On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 6:08 PM, LINDA SCHALK <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Mpho, the report was indeed compiled in july08 according to schlemer survey predicting where the mass movement will be standing post 2009 general elections,it revealed that the ANC will top,youre' comrade by saying that a lot has happened in our country politics,but it sounds like u're part sum people who believe tht the movement is bleeding and shud butt out whilst early,what i was bringing across is dat the party is firm. Mpho Tabane wrote: > Linda you are misleading Cdes this report !! It was compiled end of July and alot has happened politically between July and todate we cannot use this report wrt to current political affairs the only thing that can be done is the impact analysis of the current political status with reference to this report and work on that but bottomline this is not a true reflection of where politics are in SA at the current moment. > On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 2:58 PM, LINDA SCHALK < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > dear fellow cadres > i fully agree with dominic statements that new shikotas party will be @the bottom level/gutter along with all other opposition party--point of correction i dont think the movement has had any strong opposition, even if the shikotas can sleep in the same bed with helen zille or holomisa which i suspect,, the movement stands undefeated,,we as comrades should united and mobilise,,,,the survey results speak for its self > > AMANDLA MAQABANE --- On Tue, 11/4/08, Dominic Tweedie < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > From: Dominic Tweedie < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [YCLSA Discussion] Report on voter preferences > To: [email protected] Date: Tuesday, November 4, 2008, 10:51 AM > Schlemmer is an anti-communist liberal who hi-jacked his opinion-poll unit by privatisation from the HSRC. The full report is laced with his own opinions but the facts cannot so easily be hidden. ANC support is high enough to deliver a two-thirds majority and a three-quarters majority is within reach. So-called "voter apathy" has gone DOWN to 15% from 29%. There is no space for the Shikotas except at the expense of the DA. In my opinion the Shikotas have no chance and only exist to make short-term problems for the Alliance. Long-term, they are going to be down there with the UDM, Azapo, ACDP and PAC. What do you think, comrades? > Report on voter preferences > > Politicsweb, 3 November 2008 > > Extract from survey by Lawrence Schlemmer Markdata, July 2008 > > The Survey > > MarkData, an opinion polling and strategic research company that has operated as an independent private sector organisation since its separation from the statutory Human Sciences Research Council in 1996-1997, regularly undertakes surveys of political support patterns in South Africa and other African countries. Its political opinion surveys are based on two-stage stratified probability samples of adult voters in households in all communities throughout the country in both rural and urban areas, using census enumerator areas as a sampling frame. > > The current survey, which covers 2415 adult South Africans, is slightly larger than the 2250 of previous surveys and also incorporates a modified design intended to strengthen the sample size and reliability of results in opposition constituencies without sacrificing the relevance of results for the electorate as a whole. Hence, in the first stage of sampling, constituencies more likely to include opposition voters were given a slightly higher chance of being randomly selected than those that typically contain dominant majorities of governing party supporters, but subsequent to the completion of fieldwork the sampling results were re-weighted using appropriate post-weighting software in order to provide estimates of the overall national support patterns of political parties. > > > The Results: weighted and rectified > Party Support Patterns > > The following breakdown of party strengths emerged from the standard open-ended question posed: "Which political party will you vote for in the general election in 2009?" The results are presented in the table below compared with results in two previous surveys by MarkData. > > Table 1. Current strength of political parties compared with two previous surveys > > (The percentages in parenthesis exclude respondents not intending to vote or not responding in order to approximate an election outcome) > > Political party supported > May > 2008 > March > 2007 > March > 2004 > > % > (%) > % > (%) > % > (%) > ANC/SACP > 59,6 > (70,5) > 62,0 > (76,8) > 52,3 > (73,7) > PAC > 0,6 > (0,7) > 0,7 > (0,9) > 0,9 > (1,3) > NNP > - > - > 0,6 > (0,7) > 2,0 > (2,8) > DA > 17,4 > (20,6) > 9,9 > (12,3) > 7,9 > (11,2) > ID > 2,0 > (2,4) > 1,4 > (1,7) > 3,3 > (4,7) > UDM > 1,0 > (1,2) > 0,5 > (0,6) > 0,7 > (1,0) > IFP > 2,1 > (2,5) > 3,2 > (4,0) > 2,7 > (3,8) > FF+ > 0,5 > (0,6) > 0,4 > (0,5) > 0,2 > (0,3) > ACDP > 0,9 > (1,0) > 0,5 > (0,6) > 0,7 > (1,0) > Right wing parties > - > - > 0,2 > (0,2) > - > - > AZAPO > 0,4 > (0,5) > 0,3 > (0,4) > - > - > Other > 0,4 > (0,4) > 1,1 > (1,3) > 0,2 > (0,2) > (Total of party choices) > (100,4) > (100,0) > (100,0) > No choice (undecided, will not vote, not registered, not interested in politics, refuse) > 15,5 > - > 19,2 > 29,1 > TOTAL > 100,1 > 100,0 > 100,0 > Deviations from 100 due to rounding > > Comparisons of party strength have to be based on the second set of estimates for each year (the figures in brackets) that allow standardised comparisons with the uncertain voters removed. These figures also approximate election outcomes (it is a common procedure in electoral research to remove the uncertain voters and those who refuse to give a choice in order to estimate election outcomes). > > Hence, as voter attitudes stand at the moment, what may be predicted from these results is that the ANC majority in the next election will decline slightly to just over 70% and that the DA will consolidate its position as the major opposition to government, with results like the following: > > Party outcomes 2009: > > ANC/SACP > 70-71% > DA > 20-21% > ID > 2-3% > IFP > 2-3% > UDM > +/- 1% > ACDP > +/- 1% > PAC > < 1% > FF+ > < 1% > AZAPO > < 1% > Others > < 1% > > Broadly what the results in table 1 show is that the level of uncertainty among voters has declined from 2004. Currently only some 16% of the electorate does not make choices between parties in the survey interviews. There is a challenge for opposition parties, however, in that the motivation to vote among their supporters is slightly lower than that among ANC supporters: > > Table 2. Motivation to vote among party supporters > > Party > Voter motivation: > Will definitely/probably vote* > Total % of party > Supporters > ANC > 80% + 13% > 93% > ID > 52% + 37% > 89% > DA > 67% + 20% > 87% > ACDP > 67% + 19% > 86% > UDM > 74% + 7% > 81% > Other parties > 54% + 21% > 75% > IFP > 55% + 18% > 73% > FF+ > 29% + 41% > 70% > > * "Definitely" or "probably" is taken as a firmer intention to vote than other responses like will "possibly" vote or will probably or possibly not vote > > From Politicsweb at: > > http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=1 08653 <http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid= 108653&sn=Detail> &sn=Detail > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You are subscribed. This footer can help you. 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