Sure, markets always go up long term. At least they have for centuries. So I think that is a safe bet. But short term, you are betting against algorithms that can make trades in nanoseconds.
-- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] On Mon, Mar 30, 2026, 3:23 PM John Rose via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > On Sunday, March 29, 2026, at 9:46 AM, Matt Mahoney wrote: > > I say luck, because markets are intrinsically random. If there was an > algorithm for predicting prices, then everyone would use it. Obviously this > is not possible in a zero sum game. Therefore no such algorithm exists. But > markets can only exist when they has members who think they are smarter > than the market as a whole. The only difference between today and the > market crash of 1929 or the tulip bulb crash of 1637 is that panic was > limited by the speed of human communication. Now it is only limited by the > speed of light. > > > They are not a zero-sum game, that’s the point. The markets are very > predictable. Part of the reason people loose money trading is they think > it’s zero-sum and they don’t understand how they are manipulated. > Successful traders watch the Fed and the network of central banks. I think > of it as semi-cyclic manipulated waves of liquidity, then the central > central bank, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), essentially an > independent sovereign entity, coordinates the world central banks. Along > with that you have commodity suppression, like precious metals, the banks > suppress using naked shorts since they want everyone in paper while they > buy up all the gold with monopoly money. They don’t care if a country is > socialist or religion ruled, socialist is probably easier for them. If a > country is one of the few that isn’t in the central bank system or > threatens to leave they get attacked, like Venezuela, and now Iran with > Cuba next. The US military protects the dollar not the border. They don't > like crypto because they want to monopolize all illegal activity umbrellaed > over their giant Ponzi scheme but lately it's getting integrated to their > benefit. > > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tc2616dc0a8577813-Mfdcd0ef5257f8adead699117> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tc2616dc0a8577813-M3d1f7dfad483dd065c5d4129 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
