On Sunday, March 29, 2026, at 9:46 AM, Matt Mahoney wrote: > I say luck, because markets are intrinsically random. If there was an > algorithm for predicting prices, then everyone would use it. Obviously this > is not possible in a zero sum game. Therefore no such algorithm exists. But > markets can only exist when they has members who think they are smarter than > the market as a whole. The only difference between today and the market crash > of 1929 or the tulip bulb crash of 1637 is that panic was limited by the > speed of human communication. Now it is only limited by the speed of light.
They are not a zero-sum game, that’s the point. The markets are very predictable. Part of the reason people loose money trading is they think it’s zero-sum and they don’t understand how they are manipulated. Successful traders watch the Fed and the network of central banks. I think of it as semi-cyclic manipulated waves of liquidity, then the central central bank, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), essentially an independent sovereign entity, coordinates the world central banks. Along with that you have commodity suppression, like precious metals, the banks suppress using naked shorts since they want everyone in paper while they buy up all the gold with monopoly money. They don’t care if a country is socialist or religion ruled, socialist is probably easier for them. If a country is one of the few that isn’t in the central bank system or threatens to leave they get attacked, like Venezuela, and now Iran with Cuba next. The US military protects the dollar not the border. They don't like crypto because they want to monopolize all illegal activity umbrellaed over their giant Ponzi scheme but lately it's getting integrated to their benefit. ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tc2616dc0a8577813-Mfdcd0ef5257f8adead699117 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
