On Tue, Sep 23, 2008 at 9:28 PM, Pei Wang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> On Tue, Sep 23, 2008 at 7:26 PM, Abram Demski <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> > Wow! I did not mean to stir up such an argument between you two!!
>
> Abram: This argument has been going on for about 10 years, with some
> "on" periods and "off" periods, so don't feel responsible for it ---
> you just raised the right topic in the right time to turn it "on"
> again. ;-)



Correct ... Pei and I worked together on the same AI project for a few years

(1998-2001) and had related arguments in person many times during that
period,
and have continued the argument off and on over email...

It has been an interesting and worthwhile discussion, from my view any way,
but neither of us has really convinced the other...

I remain convinced that probability theory is a proper foundation for
uncertain
inference in an AGI context, whereas Pei remains convinced of the opposite
...

So, this is really the essential issue, rather than the particularities of
the
algebra...

The reason this is a subtle point is roughly as follows (in my view, Pei's
surely differs).

I think it's mathematically and conceptually clear that for a system with
unbounded
resources probability theory is the right way to reason.   However if you
look
at Cox's axioms

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox%27s_theorem

you'll see that the third one (consistency) cannot reasonably be expected of
a system with severely bounded computational resources...

So the question, conceptually, is: If a cognitive system can only
approximately
obey Cox's third axiom, then is it really sensible for the system to
explicitly
approximate probability theory ... or not?  Because there is no way for the
system
to *exactly* follow probability theory....

There is not really any good theory of what reasoning math a system should
(implicitly or explicitly) emulate given limited resources... Pei has his
hypothesis,
I have mine ... I'm pretty confident I'm right, but I can't prove it ... nor
can he
prove his view...

Lacking a comprehensive math theory of these things, the proof is gonna be
in the pudding ...

And, it is quite possible IMO that both approaches can work, though they
will
not fit into the same AGI systems.  That is, an AGI system in which NARS
would
be an effective component, would NOT necessarily
look the same as an AGI system in which PLN would be an effective
component...

Along these latter lines:
One thing I do like about using a reasoning system with a probabilistic
foundation
is that it lets me very easily connect my reasoning engine with other
cognitive
subsystems also based on probability theory ... say, a Hawkins style
hierarchical
perception network (which is based on Bayes nets) ... MOSES for
probabilistic
evolutionary program learning etc.   Probability theory is IMO a great
"lingua
franca" for connecting different AI components into an integrative whole...

-- Ben G



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agi
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