>There is a presumption that the main obstacle to a negotiated
settlement >between the ULFA and the Govt. Of india is the question of
absolute sovereignty >for Assam

That is a new twist. Sure had a lot of us fooled. And all this time,
we were under the impression that ULFA was all about the issue of
sovereignty.
Why, in fact, the last time they backed out of negotiations because
'sovereignty' wasn't on the table.

>Indeed, it as been suggested by many that but for the demand for
sovereignty, it >would be easy to arrive at settlement where, for
example

Maybe some do, but most just want the two parties at the discussion
table first, then maybe something beneficial could be hammared out.
Then there is feeling  that Assam may after all have peace.

>and the impression is that in fact, the government of India is
actually quite willing >to grant that.

The GOI has on occassion talked about autonomy for Kasmir with some
caveats. Then there are several states that have been expressing
interest in autonomy.

There is a higher degree of success for some kind of autonomy, then
for a hubris- loaded demand for sovereignty.

IMHO, if a number of states (not just NE) formed a coalition of sorts
to demand for more autonomy, there are better chances for success.

>The history of India in the last 50 years is one of moving towards
greater >centralization of powers. It is the centralization which
provides the economic and >political rents that the civil servants and
politicians make in Delhi - and distribute >to their lower fiefs in
the states. Rivers of blood will have to flow before they give >even
one bit of it.> By a negotiated settlement with insurgents, govt of
India >means two things: i) handing out more doles - as grants, as
bridges, roads and >universities
> ii) handing over political power (along with slush funds) at the state level 
> to >former leaders of insurgencies.

If all this true and tested, then why all the fuss about 'negotiation'
when we know the GOI will ONLY give up the 2 listed above. If rivers
of blood have to flow before the GOI gives up the ghost, then in the
practical sense, there are only 2 options:

a)Set the country aflame by insurgency & mayhem or whatever
b)Negotiate so that the 2 listed above is handed out by the GOI.

> This is not a matter of opinion - its the construction of every agreement 
> that the >GOI has signed

The keyword is "agreement". Didn't the other parties sign on the
dotted line. If these are sham agreements, then all parties are
culpable. Why blame only the GOI. Were the other parties sleeping
during the negotiations?

> The GOI's strategy is to wait and hope that all militancy will eventually 
> tire and >get corrupted to a degree that doles and state level ministries can 
> buy out. Then >it can just do another Assam accord of 1985.

Whose fault is that? If the militancy don't tire and don't get
corrupted, and be bought, the GOI's strategy would fail, wouldn't it?

--Ram






On 6/3/05, Roy, Santanu <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> There is a presumption that the main obstacle to a negotiated settlement 
> between the ULFA and the Govt. Of india is the question of absolute 
> sovereignty for Assam. Indeed, it as been suggested by many that but for the 
> demand for sovereignty, it would be easy to arrive at settlement where, for 
> example, Assam could easily gain a high degree of autonomy - and the 
> impression is that in fact, the government of India is actually quite willing 
> to grant that.
> 
> Nothing could be further from truth.
> 
> Let me suggest that on its own, the government of India is absolutely not 
> willing and has never - since 1950 - granted one additional iota of autonomy 
> or transferred one iota of actual power to the states or carried out a single 
> constitutional amendment that transfers functions to the states. The history 
> of India in the last 50 years is one of moving towards greater centralization 
> of powers. It is the centralization which provides the economic and political 
> rents that the civil servants and politicians make in Delhi - and distribute 
> to their lower fiefs in the states. Rivers of blood will have to flow before 
> they give even one bit of it.
> 
> By a negotiated settlement with insurgents, govt of India means two things:
> i) handing out more doles - as grants, as bridges, roads and universities
> ii) handing over political power (along with slush funds) at the state level 
> to former leaders of insurgencies.
> 
> This is not a matter of opinion - its the construction of every agreement 
> that the GOI has signed. From the point of the rulers in Delhi, the issue is 
> very clear. Giving one additional degree of autonomy to one state is going to 
> open the floodgates and unravel the nature of power structure of the Indian 
> "union". As it is, economic liberalization has made many of the states more 
> powerful than ever imaginable in a socialist economy.
> 
> The GOI's strategy is to wait and hope that all militancy will eventually 
> tire and get corrupted to a degree that doles and state level ministries can 
> buy out. Then it can just do another Assam accord of 1985.
> 
> For the people of Assam, short of a fundamental restucturing of 
> constitutional power, every other accord will just as meaningless as the 
> accord of 1985.
> 
> Santanu.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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