Let me clarify that there is no intention on my part to suggest that the ULFA's demands have some other angles or slants. In fact, I am in no position to know what angles they have or what they think save what is publicly professed in their publications. I truly doubt anyone on this net does.
However, it is empirically proven that there is a big difference between what any organization demands and what it settles for. The AASU demanded deportation of all people from former East Pakistan who could not be traced to the voter's list and NRC of 1951-52. What they settled for is known to us all. The initial demand and the strength with which an organization holds it are vital bargaining chips. This is a fact of life. You are probably tempted to suggest again that my statement above means that I (or others) think that the ULFA are willing to accept much less than sovereignty and they have misled people all along. That would be incorrect. Whatever I say or think has nothing to do with what the ULFA thinks. And in fact, a second order negation is also true - nothing of what I have said has anything to do with what I think the ULFA thinks... To suggest that "political and economic autonomy is a desirable goal for Assam" is not to suggest that the "ULFA has changed its mind". There is a vast difference between these two statements. And yet, people who believe in the former can gain from the process of ULFA-GOI negotiations (even if they think really badly of the ULFA) and ensure that it leads at least to some form of concrete autonomy gain by creating parallel popular public opinion and pressures. This is the collective opportunism that I suggested (as some others like Rajib seem to have correctly understood). Santanu. > -----Original Message----- > From: Ram Sarangapani [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Friday, June 03, 2005 2:39 PM > To: Roy, Santanu > Cc: [email protected] > Subject: Re: [Assam] GOI-ULFA Negotiations II > > > Santanu, > > > I could see that it was laced with unwarranted sarcasm in > different directions > >(which is unpleasant but perfectly fine with me.) > > It was not my intention to sarcasm (if any) on you per se. It was > directed more toward what I discerned from your posting (and from C'da > response in trying to show a different slant to ULFA's demands) > > > The implication is that securing meaningful autonomy is > going to take much >stronger pressure than the ULFA can exert > through its militant activities. A >broadbased people's > movement will be needed. Formation of public opinion will >be crucial. > > With that I can agree. Whether it actually comes about in some fashion > will depend on how much public opinionis there for autonomy and how > much the GOI is agreeable. > > --Ram > > > > On 6/3/05, Roy, Santanu <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > I am not sure what you meant to actually say in your response. > > I could see that it was laced with unwarranted sarcasm in > different directions (which is unpleasant but perfectly fine with me.) > > The purpose of my original message was to point out that > the difficulties of a negotiated settlement are not simply > abut getting ULFA to the table; that even if one were to go > to the GOI with a demand for limited autonomy, it might be > met with no less disdain and even brutal force, for reasons > of political economy. The Indian state does not suffer > certain forms of dissent such as ones that call into question > the terms of the union, priveleges of the political and > administrative elite, the power linkages that sustain it. > (And to be fair, the elite of no state would suffer such > dissent easily.) > > The implication is that securing meaningful autonomy is > going to take much stronger pressure than the ULFA can exert > through its militant activities. A broadbased people's > movement will be needed. Formation of public opinion will be crucial. > > > > > > Santanu. > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: Ram Sarangapani [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > Sent: Friday, June 03, 2005 12:34 PM > > > To: Roy, Santanu > > > Cc: [email protected] > > > Subject: Re: [Assam] GOI-ULFA Negotiations II > > > > > > > > > >There is a presumption that the main obstacle to a negotiated > > > settlement >between the ULFA and the Govt. Of india is > the question of > > > absolute sovereignty >for Assam > > > > > > That is a new twist. Sure had a lot of us fooled. And all > this time, > > > we were under the impression that ULFA was all about the issue of > > > sovereignty. > > > Why, in fact, the last time they backed out of > negotiations because > > > 'sovereignty' wasn't on the table. > > > > > > >Indeed, it as been suggested by many that but for the demand for > > > sovereignty, it >would be easy to arrive at settlement where, for > > > example > > > > > > Maybe some do, but most just want the two parties at the > discussion > > > table first, then maybe something beneficial could be > hammared out. > > > Then there is feeling that Assam may after all have peace. > > > > > > >and the impression is that in fact, the government of India is > > > actually quite willing >to grant that. > > > > > > The GOI has on occassion talked about autonomy for Kasmir > with some > > > caveats. Then there are several states that have been expressing > > > interest in autonomy. > > > > > > There is a higher degree of success for some kind of > autonomy, then > > > for a hubris- loaded demand for sovereignty. > > > > > > IMHO, if a number of states (not just NE) formed a > coalition of sorts > > > to demand for more autonomy, there are better chances for success. > > > > > > >The history of India in the last 50 years is one of > moving towards > > > greater >centralization of powers. It is the centralization which > > > provides the economic and >political rents that the civil > servants and > > > politicians make in Delhi - and distribute >to their > lower fiefs in > > > the states. Rivers of blood will have to flow before they > give >even > > > one bit of it.> By a negotiated settlement with > insurgents, govt of > > > India >means two things: i) handing out more doles - as grants, as > > > bridges, roads and >universities > > > > ii) handing over political power (along with slush funds) > > > at the state level to >former leaders of insurgencies. > > > > > > If all this true and tested, then why all the fuss about > 'negotiation' > > > when we know the GOI will ONLY give up the 2 listed > above. If rivers > > > of blood have to flow before the GOI gives up the ghost, > then in the > > > practical sense, there are only 2 options: > > > > > > a)Set the country aflame by insurgency & mayhem or whatever > > > b)Negotiate so that the 2 listed above is handed out by the GOI. > > > > > > > This is not a matter of opinion - its the construction of > > > every agreement that the >GOI has signed > > > > > > The keyword is "agreement". Didn't the other parties sign on the > > > dotted line. If these are sham agreements, then all parties are > > > culpable. Why blame only the GOI. Were the other parties sleeping > > > during the negotiations? > > > > > > > The GOI's strategy is to wait and hope that all militancy > > > will eventually tire and >get corrupted to a degree that > > > doles and state level ministries can buy out. Then >it can > > > just do another Assam accord of 1985. > > > > > > Whose fault is that? If the militancy don't tire and don't get > > > corrupted, and be bought, the GOI's strategy would fail, > wouldn't it? > > > > > > --Ram > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On 6/3/05, Roy, Santanu <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > There is a presumption that the main obstacle to a > > > negotiated settlement between the ULFA and the Govt. Of india > > > is the question of absolute sovereignty for Assam. Indeed, it > > > as been suggested by many that but for the demand for > > > sovereignty, it would be easy to arrive at settlement where, > > > for example, Assam could easily gain a high degree of > > > autonomy - and the impression is that in fact, the government > > > of India is actually quite willing to grant that. > > > > > > > > Nothing could be further from truth. > > > > > > > > Let me suggest that on its own, the government of India is > > > absolutely not willing and has never - since 1950 - granted > > > one additional iota of autonomy or transferred one iota of > > > actual power to the states or carried out a single > > > constitutional amendment that transfers functions to the > > > states. The history of India in the last 50 years is one of > > > moving towards greater centralization of powers. It is the > > > centralization which provides the economic and political > > > rents that the civil servants and politicians make in Delhi - > > > and distribute to their lower fiefs in the states. Rivers of > > > blood will have to flow before they give even one bit of it. > > > > > > > > By a negotiated settlement with insurgents, govt of India > > > means two things: > > > > i) handing out more doles - as grants, as bridges, roads > > > and universities > > > > ii) handing over political power (along with slush funds) > > > at the state level to former leaders of insurgencies. > > > > > > > > This is not a matter of opinion - its the construction of > > > every agreement that the GOI has signed. From the point of > > > the rulers in Delhi, the issue is very clear. Giving one > > > additional degree of autonomy to one state is going to open > > > the floodgates and unravel the nature of power structure of > > > the Indian "union". As it is, economic liberalization has > > > made many of the states more powerful than ever imaginable in > > > a socialist economy. > > > > > > > > The GOI's strategy is to wait and hope that all militancy > > > will eventually tire and get corrupted to a degree that doles > > > and state level ministries can buy out. Then it can just do > > > another Assam accord of 1985. > > > > > > > > For the people of Assam, short of a fundamental > > > restucturing of constitutional power, every other accord will > > > just as meaningless as the accord of 1985. > > > > > > > > Santanu. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > > > Assam mailing list > > > > [email protected] > > > > http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/mailman/listinfo/assam > > > > > > > > Mailing list FAQ: > > > > http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/assam/assam-faq.html > > > > To unsubscribe or change options: > > > > http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/mailman/options/assam > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ Assam mailing list [email protected] http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/mailman/listinfo/assam Mailing list FAQ: http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/assam/assam-faq.html To unsubscribe or change options: http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/mailman/options/assam
