Mike,
You will probably find what you are looking for on this web site.
http://www.skygod.com/quotes/
SDF
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mike
Cleaver
Sent: Sunday, 22 April 2007 10:20 PM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
I will do a little more research - but the person who wrote those
words was Sir Francis Chichester - already an accomplished yachtsman
when he made several pioneering flights in the 1930s involving
long-range navigation using novel methods to locate his goal (often a
small island in a large ocean).
Later he returned to yachting, and made the first single-handed
non-stop circumnavigation of he globe when well into his 60s.
Wombat
At 17:23 20/04/2007, you wrote:
>Allan,
>
>I've had that caption on my home office notice board ever since I developed
>an interest in aviation - long before gliding. The full version is:
>
>"Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous but, to an even greater
>extent than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness,
>incapacity or neglect".
>
>I don't know who wrote those impressive words but it remains as true as
ever.
>
>Geoff V
>
>At 03:58 PM 20/04/2007 +1000, you wrote:
> >
> >
> >Gliding fatalities are a bit like the ACT road toll. The overall number
is
> >so small that it just takes a slight hiccup to apparently "blow out"
really
> >badly in any one year. One mini-bus which hits a tree and wipes out
everyone
> >on board would double our road toll from 10 to 20, the pollies and police
> >would wring their hands and introduce a few more speed cameras, the next
> >year wouldn't involve a similar crash and the pollies would all say what
a
> >good job we did.
> >
> >Many years ago I was in the Sydney office of the Dept of (whatever
aviation
> >was called that year) renewing my licence. There was a poster on the
wall,
> >and I wish I could remember the exact words but I can't so I'll
paraphrase,
> >and the poster showed a big paddock with but a single tree in it, and a
> >biplane was stuffed in the top of the tree. The caption was along the
lines
> >of "the air, like the sea, is not inherently dangerous, but it is totally
> >unforgiving of those who are unskilled, ill equipped, or unprepared".
> >
> >Just about sums it up, really.
> >
> >
> >
> >Allan Armistead
> >ph (02) 6249 6470, mobile 0413 013 911
> >PO Box 908, Dickson ACT 2602, Australia
> >
> >"When once you have tasted flight, you will always walk with your eyes
> >turned skyward, for there you have been and there you always will be."
> >Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Anthony
> >Smith
> >Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 15:28
> >To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
> >Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
> >
> >
> >I did, based on some really simple stats (someone better at
> >it can have a go).
> >
> >The average is ~1.8 per year.
> >The standard deviation is ~1.6 per year.
> >
> >What it means is that a couple of years at 0 is not
> >statistically meaningfull.
> >
> >I think we need to go for 3 years with 0 deaths to start to
> >be meaningfull.
> >
> >It also means we need to kill off 7 of us to be a
> >meaningfully bad year (ie a trend getting significantly
> >worse).
> >
> >
> >
> >> I wouldn't be surprised if you analysed the figures to
> >> find the variations are not statistically significant so
> >> 2001-03 not an anomaly at all.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> On 20/04/2007, at 3:17 PM, Robinson, Peter B wrote:
> >>
> >> > Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents
> >> per yr >
> >> > The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this
> >> > just a statistical
> >> > anomaly or did we do something right without realising
> >> it? >
> >> > -----Original Message-----
> >> > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >> > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> >> > Behalf Of Texler,
> >> > Michael
> >> > Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
> >> > To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in
> >> > Australia. Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for
> >> gliders in Australia >
> >> > Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some
> >> > of my numbers were in error:
> >> >
> >> > These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers
> >> > killed) since 1991, any corrections (preferably off
>
> >> list)? >
> >> > 1991 3
> >> > 1992 1
> >> > 1993 1
> >> > 1994 3
> >> > 1995 2
> >> > 1996 0
> >> > 1997 6
> >> > 1998 3
> >> > 1999 2
> >> > 2000 2
> >> > 2001 0
> >> > 2002 0
> >> > 2003 0
> >> > 2004 1
> >> > 2005 3
> >> > 2006 3
> >> > 2007 1
> >> >
> >> > At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
> >> >
> >> > Again the problem is what to use as the denominator
> >> > (i.e.fatalities versus hours flown, number of flights,
> >> > number of active GFA members, km's flown etc.) Also note
> >> > that some of the accidents killed more than one person,
> >> hence the numerator may be rubbery too. >
> >> > Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful
> >> stats. >
> >> > The other problem is that we are dealing with a low
> >> > frequency event, so
> >> > again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
> >> >
> >> > Regards,
> >> >
> >> > M.T.
> >> >
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