Allan,
I've had that caption on my home office notice board ever since I
developed
an interest in aviation - long before gliding. The full version is:
"Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous but, to an even greater
extent than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness,
incapacity or neglect".
I don't know who wrote those impressive words but it remains as true
as ever.
Geoff V
At 03:58 PM 20/04/2007 +1000, you wrote:
>
>
>Gliding fatalities are a bit like the ACT road toll. The overall
number is
>so small that it just takes a slight hiccup to apparently "blow out"
really
>badly in any one year. One mini-bus which hits a tree and wipes out
everyone
>on board would double our road toll from 10 to 20, the pollies and
police
>would wring their hands and introduce a few more speed cameras, the
next
>year wouldn't involve a similar crash and the pollies would all say
what a
>good job we did.
>
>Many years ago I was in the Sydney office of the Dept of (whatever
aviation
>was called that year) renewing my licence. There was a poster on the
wall,
>and I wish I could remember the exact words but I can't so I'll
paraphrase,
>and the poster showed a big paddock with but a single tree in it, and a
>biplane was stuffed in the top of the tree. The caption was along
the lines
>of "the air, like the sea, is not inherently dangerous, but it is
totally
>unforgiving of those who are unskilled, ill equipped, or unprepared".
>
>Just about sums it up, really.
>
>
>
>Allan Armistead
>ph (02) 6249 6470, mobile 0413 013 911
>PO Box 908, Dickson ACT 2602, Australia
>
>"When once you have tasted flight, you will always walk with your eyes
>turned skyward, for there you have been and there you always will be."
>Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Anthony
>Smith
>Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 15:28
>To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
>Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
>
>
>I did, based on some really simple stats (someone better at
>it can have a go).
>
>The average is ~1.8 per year.
>The standard deviation is ~1.6 per year.
>
>What it means is that a couple of years at 0 is not
>statistically meaningfull.
>
>I think we need to go for 3 years with 0 deaths to start to
>be meaningfull.
>
>It also means we need to kill off 7 of us to be a
>meaningfully bad year (ie a trend getting significantly
>worse).
>
>
>
>> I wouldn't be surprised if you analysed the figures to
>> find the variations are not statistically significant so
>> 2001-03 not an anomaly at all.
>>
>>
>>
>> On 20/04/2007, at 3:17 PM, Robinson, Peter B wrote:
>>
>> > Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents
>> per yr >
>> > The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this
>> > just a statistical
>> > anomaly or did we do something right without realising
>> it? >
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
>> > Behalf Of Texler,
>> > Michael
>> > Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
>> > To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in
>> > Australia. Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for
>> gliders in Australia >
>> > Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some
>> > of my numbers were in error:
>> >
>> > These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers
>> > killed) since 1991, any corrections (preferably off
>> list)? >
>> > 1991 3
>> > 1992 1
>> > 1993 1
>> > 1994 3
>> > 1995 2
>> > 1996 0
>> > 1997 6
>> > 1998 3
>> > 1999 2
>> > 2000 2
>> > 2001 0
>> > 2002 0
>> > 2003 0
>> > 2004 1
>> > 2005 3
>> > 2006 3
>> > 2007 1
>> >
>> > At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
>> >
>> > Again the problem is what to use as the denominator
>> > (i.e.fatalities versus hours flown, number of flights,
>> > number of active GFA members, km's flown etc.) Also note
>> > that some of the accidents killed more than one person,
>> hence the numerator may be rubbery too. >
>> > Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful
>> stats. >
>> > The other problem is that we are dealing with a low
>> > frequency event, so
>> > again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
>> >
>> > Regards,
>> >
>> > M.T.
>> >
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