On Wednesday 2003-12-24 06:22, Alberto Monteiro wrote: > >>> If we want 1MY mean life-spans, then 11% clients and 5% patrons might > >>> provide for interesting but not grossly inequitble politics consistent > >>> with existing sources on the Uplift Universe. > >> > >> Uh? > > > > I picked 11% > > I got the 11%. I didn't get the "provide for interesting but not grossly > inequitble politics consistent with existing sources on the Uplift > Universe." > > > because there will be some mortality among uplift projects. > > With current medical technology the replacement birthrate is > > something like 2.1 births per couple. 1.1 is a convenient > > (if not totally convincing) replacement rate for the > > population of O-2 species > > Ok, but I am not (yet) worried about this precision :-) > > > My other point is that if there are X uplift minors and X uplifters then > > the system is egalitarian. The Uplift Universe is *VERY* fair. Even if > > there are 10 uplift projects for 9 uplifters the system is still pretty > > darn fair. We get what economists would call a flat wealth curve. The > > implication is that there is little class warfare -- most (almost all) > > races are middle class and equal. It implies that even powerful clans, > > like the Soro or Thennanin are not too powerful. Democratic and > > egalitarian socio-political dynamics keep them in check. > > > > This is bad for literature. > > No - the system may be fair, but some clans might twist it a little > bit. So, most of the 200k races would be egalitarian, except a small > minority of powerful clans. > > > If there are 10 clients being uplifted then we need fewer than 10 > > patrons. If there are 2 or 3 patrons per 10 clients things are ripe for > > revolution. > > But then things would be quite unstable. Most of the lines would quickly > extinguish - at the fast rate of 50% to 66% each "generation"!
There are two sorts of instability. One level of instability is at the level of the lineage. The other is the stablity of the inter-species political order. Moderate or serious disparities in wealth curves mean that a lot of lineages die out. Having lineages die out is not necessarily a problem for Galactic political stability. In real life lineages are usually short lived--even in lineage oriented societies like the middle east or in Samoa. Political instability results when MAJOR lines die out. When the King dies without issues you get wars of succession. With enough repression *very* repressive regimes can last a long time--but usually dont. Moderately unfair regimes can be very stable, look at the wealth curve for the USA. > > 4 to 6 to 10 and things are noticibly unfair, but we can claim there is > > equal opportunity. Social Darwinism is good say Dr. Pangloss. 7 or 8 > > and we have some sort of dialectic between fair distribution and rewards > > to cummulative advantage. > > > > The wealth curves that involve 4 to 8 patrons per 10 clients probably > > make for good story backgrounds. > > But it is _very_ unstable. I claim that the rate should be quite close to > 1 client : 1 patron, so that _most_ lines would be mantained for long > periods of time. Lets talk in terms of total clients uplifted during a patron's main sequence existence. In that case a replacement rate of one under total fairness gives this histogram. 0| 1 1| 1 2| 1 3| 1 4| 1 5| 1 6| 1 7| 1 8| 1 9| 1 With a replacement rate of 1.1 total fairness gives: 0| 1 1| 1 2| 1 3| 1 4| 1 5| 1 6| 1 7| 1 8| 1 9| #2 If 10% of species don't want to uplift clients then we get a totally fair system with: 0| . 1| 1 2| 1 3| 1 4| 1 5| 1 6| 1 7| 1 8| #2 9| #2 With 10% opting not to have clients, 10% prevented from having clients and some minimal unfairness we might have 0| . 1| . 2| 1 3| 1 4| 1 5| 1 6| 1 7| 1 8| #2 9| ##3 > This doesn't prevent a few lines to "usurp" clients from extinguished > lines, and growing at the expense of others. These expansionist > lines should be just a few, otherwise the system would be too > unstable. > > Literature is saved: the famous fanatical races of the Canon are those > expansionist clans, eager to expand by taking Terra's 3 unfinished races. No. I dont like it. You are saying that the system is so fair only the powerful would want to change it. > > (These ratios assume that patrons are assigned their clients all at once, > > instead of finishing a project and starting the next.... Still you see my > > point.) I propose: 00| . 01| . 02| . 03| . 04| . 05| . 06| . 07| . 08| . 09| . 10| . 11| . 12| . 13| . 14| . 15| . 16| . 17| . 18| . 19| . 20| . 21| . 22| . 23| . 24| . 25| . 26| . 27| . 28| . 29| . 30| . 31| . 32| . 33| . 34| . 35| 1 36| 1 37| 1 38| 1 39| 1 40| 1 41| 1 42| 1 43| 1 44| 1 45| 1 46| 1 47| 1 48| 1 49| 1 50| 1 51| 1 52| 1 53| 1 54| 1 55| 1 56| 1 57| 1 58| 1 59| 1 60| 1 61| 1 62| 1 63| 1 64| 1 65| 1 66| 1 67| 1 68| 1 69| 1 70| 1 71| 1 72| 1 73| 1 74| 1 75| 1 76| 1 77| 1 78| 1 79| 1 80| #2 81| #2 82| #2 83| #2 84| #2 85| #2 86| #2 87| #2 88| #2 89| #2 90| ##3 91| ##3 92| ##3 93| ##3 94| ##3 95| ###4 96| ###4 97| ####5 98| #####6 99| ######7+ With 200K species the odds of having more than, say, 12 clients would be vanishingly small. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
