Trent Shipley wrote: > >>> >>> If there are 2M inhabited planets then there are 14M fallow planets. >>> At any given time there must be a total of 16M habitable planets. >> >> Ok, 700ky, or 1My, don't change the final numbers very much > > Nope. > > Look. I want to write about Clan Tothtoon. To do that it would be helpful > to pin down some numbers, namely: > > -Total number of races in O-2 Civilization "now". > (total number of individuals or biomass would be interesting but not > critical) > I think we already came to that number, didn't we? Something around 200k.
> -Average number of clients per patron (obviously slightly more than 1) > Slightly higher than 1, but not even close to 2. More likely some number like (1 + 1/n), for n > 4 > -- Distribution of access to clients among potential patrons (Members of > Clan Tothtoon tend to be priviledged, the question is how priviledged.) > Find it, uplift it. Wise and non-expansionist patrons will trade found clients for other benefits. > -Total O-2 habitable planets now > --- leased:fallow > --- natural:terraformed > --- proportion of A, B, C and homeworld leases. > --- Mean number of planets per citizen race > --- fairness in distributing leases. > I also think we came to some figures here. > With regard to planets I visit: > http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html > Some of the factors in Drake's equation are still _extremely_ innacurate. > N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL > > N: communicating life. > N*: number of stars, site suggests 100 * 10^9 for Milky Way alone > fp: fraction of stars with planets Seems close to 1 :-) > ne: number of planets where life can exist Seems close to 1/10^11 :-) > fl: fraction where life evolves > fi: fraction were intelligent life evolves > fc: fraction that can and do communicate > fL: fraction of timewhere communicating civilization exists > > Galactics will colonize any planet where life evolves. fi, fc, and fL are > irrelevant for calculating planets under GIM control. > In fact, these numbers _do_ apply to Uplift. fl is 1, because the Progenitors fed the planets with life. fi is 2/[total number of species that ever existed] if you accept Earthclan's supersticions, or 1/[total] if you are an Awaiter. Otherwise, this question is anathema. > (Alternatively fi=1, all planets with life get infested with intelligent > life. fc=1, all inhabited planets participate in Galcatic Civilization. > 0.12 > fL >.1 since inhabitable planets spend most of their > existence in fallow.) > Ok. > Ngim = N* fp ne fl > N* = 100*10^9 per SETI > fp = 0.2 (conservative per SETI) > ne = 1 (conservative per SETI) > SETIst are optmistic fanatics :-) > fl = 0.0001 (pretty conservative, but then the GIM is only interested in > planets with *complex* life.) > fl can be any number :-) > That gives us 2M *naturally* existing planets in the Milky Way controled by > the GIM and 10M naturally occuring planets under GIM control through five > galaxies. If 4/5 of all GIM controlled planets are terrformed then we wind > up with 50M GIM planets in five galaxies. > Ok. But it's better to go back and set the Drake factors based on what we want to get in the end. Alberto Monteiro _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
