On Thursday 2004-01-08 06:00, Alberto Monteiro wrote: > Trent Shipley wrote: > >> No. I propose that there are 2M planets _with_ galactic > >> civilization settled on them. But they could be 20M or 200k. > > > > Good. So 2M is a _reasonable_ statistical expectiation for planets that > > could support civilzation across 5 galaxies. > > As a side note, Asimov's Galactic Empire includes 25M planets in a > single Galaxy, all of them terraformed in the past 22,000 years. But > Asimov was optimist about the existence of habitable planets, we > know for sure that there can't be habitable planets around, for example, > Epsilon Eridani, where Asimov placed Baleyworld-Comporellon. > > >> Stars come and go, planets come and go. The terraforming of > >> planets should probably just keep the number of planets in > >> a stable number. > > > > Lets come back to terraforming. I think that it would be a major (and > > s-l-o-w-l-y increasing) factor in the total number of habitable planets. > > The key word here is _slowly_. For practical purposes, we can suppose > that the number is more or less constant during the lifecycle of a > standard species [1 million years] > > >> BTW, I also guess that there are about 10 fallow planets for > >> each settled planet, based on the data that a planet is usually > >> leased for 100ky, and it is let fallow for a minimum of 500ky > >> [usually more]. > > > > I am going to assume that a factor of 1:10 is the high end for an > > inhabited to fallow ratio if planets are leased for an average 100ky and > > fallow for a minimum of 500ky. What we need is a figure for mean fallow > > time. Lets pick 700ky. > > > > If there are 2M inhabited planets then there are 14M fallow planets. At > > any given time there must be a total of 16M habitable planets. > > Ok, 700ky, or 1My, don't change the final numbers very much >
Nope. Look. I want to write about Clan Tothtoon. To do that it would be helpful to pin down some numbers, namely: -Total number of races in O-2 Civilization "now". (total number of individuals or biomass would be interesting but not critical) -Average number of clients per patron (obviously slightly more than 1) -- Distribution of access to clients among potential patrons (Members of Clan Tothtoon tend to be priviledged, the question is how priviledged.) -Total O-2 habitable planets now --- leased:fallow --- natural:terraformed --- proportion of A, B, C and homeworld leases. --- Mean number of planets per citizen race --- fairness in distributing leases. With regard to planets I visit: http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL N: communicating life. N*: number of stars, site suggests 100 * 10^9 for Milky Way alone fp: fraction of stars with planets ne: number of planets where life can exist fl: fraction where life evolves fi: fraction were intelligent life evolves fc: fraction that can and do communicate fL: fraction of timewhere communicating civilization exists Galactics will colonize any planet where life evolves. fi, fc, and fL are irrelevant for calculating planets under GIM control. (Alternatively fi=1, all planets with life get infested with intelligent life. fc=1, all inhabited planets participate in Galcatic Civilization. 0.12 > fL >.1 since inhabitable planets spend most of their existence in fallow.) Ngim = N* fp ne fl N* = 100*10^9 per SETI fp = 0.2 (conservative per SETI) ne = 1 (conservative per SETI) fl = 0.0001 (pretty conservative, but then the GIM is only interested in planets with *complex* life.) That gives us 2M *naturally* existing planets in the Milky Way controled by the GIM and 10M naturally occuring planets under GIM control through five galaxies. If 4/5 of all GIM controlled planets are terrformed then we wind up with 50M GIM planets in five galaxies. But for _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
