> From: Dan M > > > > What's wicked about bringing children > > > into the world that you have the > > > resources to support and nurture? > > > Doug > > it's wicked because it creates even more > scarcity among other children > > in undeveloped countries whose parents do not have the > resources to > > support and nurture. would you suggest that we forbid > anyone too poor from having children? > > jon
> Going with your logic, with scarcity of commodities being > the cause of > poverty, shouldn't people have been much richer 3000 > years ago, at the time > that the earth's resources were barely touched? i was not the one who initiated the scarcity of commodities argument, although it is obviously that 3,000 years ago lo tech societies did not consume and pollute anywhere near the levels of almost seven billion (approaching 6,832,000,000) do today. prior to the agricultural revolution population levels were even lower and humans were "leavers", rather than "takers": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ishmael_(novel) > We don't have to go that far back to see the difficulty > with that argument. > The prices of most commodities had dropped from 1975 (a > year books on > scarcity, overpopulation, pollution etc. were abundant) to > 2000. With the > exception of oil, the price in 2005 of most basic > commodities (iron ore, > copper, aluminum ore, etc.) were roughly half of what they > were two and three decades earlier. you should mention that is largely due to increased production, and is that adjusted for inflation?~) > Even oil fell into that pattern, falling below $10/barrel > in 1998 on the > spot market, and averaging around 11 for the year ($15 in > today's dollars). > Resources were abundantly available for poor countries, at > low prices. > Some Asian countries started to develop, but sub-Sahara > Africa remained in > poverty. Zambia, which I have a very close connection to, > actually suffered > because the drop in the value of their main export > (copper). what is your connection to zambia? i lived in tchad in 1979. > Poor countries, to first order, are cut out of > international trade. As they > become integrated in the world economy (e.g. China and > India) the levels of > income rise. Its happened fast enough and soon enough > after an oil bust, so > that oil prices are high (oil production has a long lead > time and cost of > setup....but once a well is flowing producing oil is > usually a minor part of > the cost). CO2 and mid-East & Venezuelan politics are > good reasons to cut > oil consumption, but just in terms of resource > availability....we have > plenty of choices for low entropy energy sources for years > to come. poor countries are NOT cut out of international trade, in fact, they are exploited for their labor AND resources... > There is no evidence that, if the United States decided to > fade away as > continental Europe is doing, instead of having a ZPG birth > rate, that poor > people (eg those in sub-Sahara Africa) would benefit. GOOD!~) jon _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
