intuitively, you might think it works that way, but it just isn't the case. basic math.
On 11/10/06, Gruss wrote: > > > RoMunn wrote: > > More geek moments. Dana is right. Casinos make money on very, very small > > margins (51% chance of the house winning at blackjack, is that right?) > Each > > hand, each throw, each spin is a separate event and the house makes > money on > > volume. > > > > But only because she doesn't understand my point. The odds of walking > away an overall winner is a function of your sample size. That is, > winning one hand has higher odds of winning 2 >> in a row << > > Here, I'll show you: > > The odds of flipping a heads in one toss of a coin is: 1 in 2 or 50% > > The odds of flipping 5 heads in a row is 1 in 32 or 3% > > The odds of flipping 10 heads in a row is 1 in 1024 or 0.1% > > The reason this analogy works is because, as every combat vet knows, > the longer you're in combat the less chance you have of walking away > without getting hit. As journalists say: > > 1.) It can't happen to me. > 2.) It might happen to me. > 3.) I have to be careful or it'll happen to me. > 4.) No matter what I do it's going to happen to me. > 5.) I have to get out now. > -- --------------- Robert Munn www.funkymojo.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Introducing the Fusion Authority Quarterly Update. 80 pages of hard-hitting, up-to-date ColdFusion information by your peers, delivered to your door four times a year. http://www.fusionauthority.com/quarterly Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:220377 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
