> Dana wrote:
> still not, because whether someone shoots and hits is an entirely
> separate issue

LOL, take it to your math lab.  I'm right.

The 50% number is only for analogy because it's supposed to be easy
for someone to understand the difference between the probability of
flipping a coin and getting a desired result *once* versus getting the
desired result *many times in row*.

Apparently not.

I think where you're getting stuck is that you want to think combat
like a coin toss.  The difference is that when you lose a coin toss,
you flip again (your 50%).  But when you get hit in combat you can
die.  No more flips.  So the calculation must be *in a row*.  Multiple
events.  Not a single event.

(1024, btw.  I did the calculation for you about 5 times.  Now it's 6.)

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