question to me isn't distribution, it's ownership vrs. Pay-as-you-go.
As to the distribution we're already seeing less of a reliance on the
physical media (the song- and file-swapping networks are indicative of
this). The issue now isn't media, it's speed and reliability. I can go out
and buy a CD. Or I can download it. It takes longer to download it and my
continued ownership of it is dependent on the quality of my storage media
(my hard drive). I'm also limited by the size of my personal storage.
As both the speed of distribution and reliability/size of storage increases
I'm sure that reliance on the physical media will also fade. An closely
analogous market is the cell-phone software market. You buy ring-tones,
games, software, etc for your phone and never expect physical media. This
is, to be sure, because the cost and file sizes are very small but the
concept is similar.
Another is the financial (and other) industries move towards paperless
online statements. Video on demand is making noticeable headway into the
video rental markets in areas where it's available. We've already seen a
software industry wide move to drop paper manuals (and their costs) from
packaging and replace it with online help (or at the worst, simple PDF
versions of the manuals).
Basically many of those things that can be replaced by online delivery are
being replaced. Slowly to be sure, but they are. In all successful cases
the delivery mechanism is effectively instantaneous.
That's not to be extreme about it and say that NO physical media will exist.
It may not COMPLETELY supplant it (what's ever 100%?), but I think we'll
definitely reach a point were obtaining physical media will be a rare,
difficult to request. Like trying to find a recent release on vinyl.
I think we'll get there eventually, but it may take longer than some people
predict (I've heard "two or three years" for example). I would think, if
current trends in connectivity, speed, and storage stay strong we'll be
fully in this phase in say, 15 years. I expect before then for some basic
architecture level changes to occur - Steam may be a major prod there. For
example I think we'll see games designed for streaming play soon. Instead
of downloading 700meg and then installing you'll download 20 meg and start
to play while the rest of the game content streams in from the download
service.
This is actually pretty easy to do now (the game engine is generally one of
the smaller overall chunks of the game with the art and in-game stuff next
followed finally by voice and music and then finally by video cut-scenes).
The technology is already moving in that direction to diminish load times
from CD - it's not a stretch to see it expanded to deal with longer times.
Anyway the question isn't distribution (to me) it's ownership. Are we going
to pay $50 for game and "keep it" or are we going to pay $5 a day (or
whatever) to play a game? I prefer the former, greatly, but the latter is a
good option for those that rent frequently.
In short I think that both options will be available. Pay a large, one-time
fee to play unlimited (just like buying a game today) or pay smaller,
periodic fees to play a game for a short while (just like renting a game
today). In either case I think the trend is moving towards online delivery.
I also think that additional funding will be gained via additions and
enhancements to games.
For example I might pay $50 to play a game as often as I want but then need
to pay $10 more to get new levels as they come out. However if I chose to
pay $10 for a weekend of play when the game came out I could, later, pay
that $10 again to rent the fully updated game.
Personally I tend to play games to death - getting everything single
possible thing in them. But then I never play then again - there's just too
much coming out. I also tend to play just one game at a time, finishing it
before starting another.
I might get 100 hours of entertainment from "Final Fantasy X" - which means
it's economical (in our hypothetical future world) to buy the game outright
(or, considering the delivery, a unlimited license for the game). However
another truly great game like "Silent Hill 3" may only take 8 hours to
finish. For this a weekend license would probably suffice - but I might
rent it again at some point just to show a friend that cool scene in that
mall.
I would, of course, keep (just as I do today) all of my progress and in-game
goodies in all the games I play on personal media. If the delivery were
instantaneous (and didn't require me to go outside) I could easily see
myself renting the vast majority of my titles.
Lastly I also think that for this to become a success certain issues need to
be dealt with. For example portability. I should be able (and really have
to be able for the process to successful) to play that game on any console I
want: in the family room, in the bedroom and at a friends house. Another
issue that I think is coming soon is buyer remorse issues. Technology can
track my usage so it should be intelligent about it.
Considering no physical media if I rent a movie and never watch it a good
system would extend me credit. If I rent a video game for the weekend
(again assuming online delivery) and can't play it I shouldn't pay. I'm
not, like I would be with physical media, prevent other customers from
access the same content so the traditional restrictions should be loosened.
Anyways I think we'll be getting more and more things online and see fewer
and fewer examples of physical distribution media as networking tech
improves.
Jim Davis
_____
From: Kwang Suh [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Monday, January 19, 2004 1:43 AM
To: CF-Community
Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
The author was saying that the pay per use system will completely supplant
the physical distribution model, which I say will _never_ happen.
Besides, it's pointless. If the game is on my system, rest assured there
will be some way for me to get at it and play it for free.
As for the points about a closed PC architecture, that idea is so ludicrous
I can't believe he actually thinks it's going to happen.
-----Original Message-----
From: Andrew Scott [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: January 18, 2004 11:32 PM
To: CF-Community
Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
Unfortunately yes it will, but it will be some time down the track.
Take into consideration that gamers of today want more, bigger games, fixes
etc. XBox live is a typical example of this, to get more content for your
live game is just the beginning.
But the thing that will make it a slow progression is that not everyone will
be connected to the net, so there will still be that market for a very long
time. Music downloads is a typical example, on how things are progressing
towards the pay as you need system.
Regards
Andrew Scott
Technical Consultant
NuSphere Pty Ltd
Level 2/33 Bank Street
South Melbourne, Victoria, 3205
Phone: 03 9686 0485 - Fax: 03 9699 7976
_____
From: Kwang Suh [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Monday, 19 January 2004 5:21 PM
To: CF-Community
Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
Never gonna happen.
-----Original Message-----
From: Angel Stewart [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: January 18, 2004 10:21 PM
To: CF-Community
Subject: Bleak future for videogamers?
HYPERLINK
"http://curmudgeongamer.com/article.php?story=20040113221322445"http://c
urmudgeongamer.com/article.php?story=20040113221322445
"... And that's where were headed, like it or not. No physical media. No
rentals. No used games. No sharing games among friends. Limited hardware
upgrades. Pay-to-play. Unless something seriously changes the course of
the industry, this is the future. "
Interesting article. Don't know if I agree with everything, but it's a
bit alarming that it's all quite possible.
-Gel
---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.559 / Virus Database: 351 - Release Date: 1/7/2004
_____
_____
_____
_____
[Todays Threads] [This Message] [Subscription] [Fast Unsubscribe] [User Settings]
