Even though we have cheap gasoline for now, the replacement cost is in
the $3 to $4 a gallon range using for example, Bakken and Eagle Ford
shale oil at a breakeven price of $60 to$ 80+ per barrel. If electric
rates are near $0.10/kwhr, then it cost about $1.00 to go 30 miles
whereas an ICE cost about $3 to $4 in gasoline. The difference can pay
off either a PV array faster or be put toward making an EV competitive
with an ICE on a fuel plus maintenance plus battery pack basis.
I think we may see a large uptake with 2017 models EVs with purported
200 mile ranges or so.
On 8/14/2015 11:46 AM, Mark Abramowitz via EV wrote:
You may be correct, but as EVs become ubiquitous, and not just the early
adopters, the % of those using solar must decline. That is, unless solar
becomes significantly more ubiquitous than EVs.
Better to be conservative with the numbers. (IMO, of course)
Sent from my iPhone
On Aug 14, 2015, at 8:13 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org> wrote:
I also have gotten the coal claim, which I correct,
giving the power generating mix in my state,
but I get the impression they don't believe it.
You may power your EV from the dirty power in your state, but studies in
2012 showed about 50% of EV owners charged their cars from 100% renewable
solar or wind. Now just last week (2015) the Ford survey found that 83%
of EV purchasers charge from 100% renewables or will when they can.
So quoting the grid mix is doing a disservice to 83% of EV owners and is
dead wrong by a factor of FIVE, because it IGNORES the fact that most of
the people buying EV's are also buying 100% clean electricity.
You are doing EV's a disservice by quoting the dirty grid mix. Get a show
of hands in your local EV club. In ours, 2/3rds of the EV owners also
have solar to charge them.
It is NO COINCIDENCE that most people who buy EV's also want to do it with
clean energy.
Using the grid mix is damning the future by the sins of the past. Or its
like saying that because 18% of Americans smoke that I have an 18% chance
of dying of lung cancer (But, I don't smoke)!
And even if the grid mix is 40% coal, if 83% of EV drivers charge from
100% renewables then simple math shows that the -average- percentage of
coal electricity for EV drivers is then 40% * 17% or under 7%. A far cry
from the "grid mix" you are quoting.
Plus, the use of coal since 2008 has gone DOWN by over 20% and keeps going
down!
Bob, WB4APR
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