On 10 Jan 2022 at 20:57, paul dove via EV wrote: > This will only work if people buy their product.
Correct. Toyota is very very late to the EV game. I'm not convinced that they'll ever catch up, but I could be wrong. (There's also the fact that Toyota build the most hideous-looking cars on the road, but maybe I'm the only one with that opinion.) > Tesla has still sold more than all the rest combined except maybe china. Depends on where. I don't doubt that that's true in the US. In Europe, Tesla is the cumulative sales leader by a small margin, but nowhere near "more than the rest combined." And Europe is where the brightest future of EVs lies. Cumulative EU EV sales, 2012-2020: Tesla 309,859 Renault 308,153 VW 213,726 Those historical figures conceal what's happening now. 2020 EU EV sales: Volkswagen 114,797 Renault 106,262 Tesla 97,548 Tesla's 2020 EU sales were down 13%, while Volkswagen's QUADRUPLED and Renault's more than DOUBLED. And we've just started to see the effect of VW's expanded EV offerings and Renault's low cost Dacia Spring. So far it looks like Tesla may squeak by VW to take the lead in 2021. Or not; it's right on the edge. I don't have a breakout of VW's 2021 E-Up sales yet, so I can't calculate VW's total. But ID3s are selling about as fast as they can build them, and ID4s are doing surprisingly well too. VW offer Europe a range of EV sizes and styles: the A-segment E-up, the C- segment ID3, and the D-segment (I think) ID4. Their EVs are designed for European drivers, European roads and streets, and European parking spaces. VW is serious about selling EVs in Europe. Tesla effectively offer Europe one EV of one size in two styles, sedan or wagon, and it's classifed as a large car (D-segment) in Europe. The Model 3/Y is designed for American drivers, American roads and streets, and American parking spaces. Tesla is not serious about selling EVs in Europe. Model 3 - Tesla's smallest car! - is 6mm wider and 20mm longer than a Koleos, Renault's largest SUV. There's no way I'd want to drive or park either one in Europe's medieval towns, with their one-car-wide alleys and their barely-open-the-doors parking spaces. I don't think it's a good idea for Tesla to count on US EV sales for their future. I could again be wrong, but I expect that US EV sales, even Tesla's, will decline from 2025, possibly even earlier. Meanwhile, in 2025, Norway will no longer allow sales of passenger ICEVs. Already 75% of vehicle sales there are EVs. I think that Tesla needs to get a clue what Europe needs and wants in their EVs, and pronto, if they don't want to end up like Toyota. But what do I know? David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Advertising (n): the science of arresting the human intelligence for long enough to get money from it. -- Stephen Leacock = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _______________________________________________ Address messages to ev@lists.evdl.org No other addresses in TO and CC fields UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/ LIST INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
