I'm seeing a fair number of comments in Tesla owner communities that suggest existing owners are considering cross-shopping other brands. There is unrest due to various design decisions that are making owners feel the pains of being beta testers. Significant firmware UI changes with v11, firmware bugs, and heating issues on the heat pump based cars are recent owner concerns. These are fixable, but a smooth approach, with rollback options using the alternate partition, would prevent owners from feeling the development bumps along the way.
There has been a bit of indication that the company understands there is unrest over these items. Communication has been sparse in the past and continues to be a sparse. Many of the concerns could be addressed by changes in how Tesla acts, how it communicates, and how it addresses design issues. There are other older concerns too. None of these is individually fatal, but each one opens an opportunity for someone else to do it better. In any case, today if someone in the US needs an EV for regional use, and can rely on L2 charging at home and around town, there are multiple options. If one needs US long range road tripping capability, Tesla maintains a lead in network reliability. I know the CCS network is growing in coverage, but what about reliability? The charging situation is different in Europe, as are the distances, where a country approximates a single US state. If/when Tesla actually opens up the US Supercharging network to EVs from other manufacturers will be a very telling point, as then any compatible EV will also have long range road trip capabilities, meaning a Tesla vehicle is no longer special in that regard. On Tue, Jan 11, 2022, 10:46 paul dove <dov...@bellsouth.net> wrote: > You are right about one thing the competition is non-existent. But there > are no indications that will change any time soon. Tesla cars are so far > superior the others may never catch them. Still looks to me like they > haven’t figured out what to produce because they don’t understand the > market > > > Sent from AT&T Yahoo Mail for iPhone <https://more.att.com/currently/imap> > > On Monday, January 10, 2022, 11:00 PM, Haudy Kazemi via EV < > ev@lists.evdl.org> wrote: > > What is expected to happen in or around 2025 that will cause US EV sales to > fall? Mass autonomy? TAAS? > > That's a lot bigger claim than to say Tesla's share of the EV sales will > fall, or that Tesla's sales will fall. > > Tesla's share of EV sales could fall even if their sales counts held > steady. Tesla's sales could fall if the legacy players catch up to, even > surpass, Tesla on range, reliability, charging networks, product maturity, > and product (experience) management. > > To date, Tesla has benefited from weak competition in the EV space, and > also from forgiving early adopters willing to put up with various moves > that cannot be expected to 'fly' with the mass market. > > There is also the longer term matter of product maintenance/maintainability > at affordable levels. We know that at least some ICE vehicle models > (looking at Corolla and Gen 2, 3 Prius here) can be keep running up to > several hundred thousand miles with generally low maintenance costs. Can > manufacturer EVs match that? Will garage mechanics be able to do even basic > servicing? What will happen with the Right to Repair? > > > > On Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 22:20 EV List Lackey via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org> > wrote: > > > On 10 Jan 2022 at 20:57, paul dove via EV wrote: > > > > > This will only work if people buy their product. > > > > Correct. Toyota is very very late to the EV game. I'm not convinced > that > > they'll ever catch up, but I could be wrong. (There's also the fact that > > Toyota build the most hideous-looking cars on the road, but maybe I'm the > > only one with that opinion.) > > > > > Tesla has still sold more than all the rest combined except maybe > china. > > > > Depends on where. I don't doubt that that's true in the US. > > > > In Europe, Tesla is the cumulative sales leader by a small margin, but > > nowhere near "more than the rest combined." And Europe is where the > > brightest future of EVs lies. > > > > Cumulative EU EV sales, 2012-2020: > > > > Tesla 309,859 > > Renault 308,153 > > VW 213,726 > > > > Those historical figures conceal what's happening now. > > > > 2020 EU EV sales: > > > > Volkswagen 114,797 > > Renault 106,262 > > Tesla 97,548 > > > > Tesla's 2020 EU sales were down 13%, while Volkswagen's QUADRUPLED and > > Renault's more than DOUBLED. And we've just started to see the effect of > > VW's expanded EV offerings and Renault's low cost Dacia Spring. > > > > So far it looks like Tesla may squeak by VW to take the lead in 2021. Or > > not; it's right on the edge. I don't have a breakout of VW's 2021 E-Up > > sales yet, so I can't calculate VW's total. But ID3s are selling about > as > > fast as they can build them, and ID4s are doing surprisingly well too. > > > > VW offer Europe a range of EV sizes and styles: the A-segment E-up, the > C- > > segment ID3, and the D-segment (I think) ID4. Their EVs are designed for > > European drivers, European roads and streets, and European parking > > spaces. > > > > VW is serious about selling EVs in Europe. > > > > Tesla effectively offer Europe one EV of one size in two styles, sedan or > > wagon, and it's classifed as a large car (D-segment) in Europe. The > Model > > 3/Y is designed for American drivers, American roads and streets, and > > American parking spaces. > > > > Tesla is not serious about selling EVs in Europe. > > > > Model 3 - Tesla's smallest car! - is 6mm wider and 20mm longer than a > > Koleos, Renault's largest SUV. There's no way I'd want to drive or park > > either one in Europe's medieval towns, with their one-car-wide alleys and > > their barely-open-the-doors parking spaces. > > > > I don't think it's a good idea for Tesla to count on US EV sales for > their > > future. I could again be wrong, but I expect that US EV sales, even > > Tesla's, will decline from 2025, possibly even earlier. > > > > Meanwhile, in 2025, Norway will no longer allow sales of passenger ICEVs. > > Already 75% of vehicle sales there are EVs. > > > > I think that Tesla needs to get a clue what Europe needs and wants in > > their > > EVs, and pronto, if they don't want to end up like Toyota. But what do I > > know? > > > > David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey > > > > To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my > > offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt > > > > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = > > Advertising (n): the science of arresting the human > > intelligence for long enough to get money from it. > > > > -- Stephen Leacock > > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Address messages to ev@lists.evdl.org > > No other addresses in TO and CC fields > > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > > ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/ > > LIST INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: < > http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20220110/e6723206/attachment.html > > > > _______________________________________________ > Address messages to ev@lists.evdl.org > No other addresses in TO and CC fields > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/ > LIST INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... 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