Your numbers are behind a paywall... you could screen shot and paste them here if you wanted me to look at them.
Mine are from here: United States COVID: 48,558,229 Cases and 793,539 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info) <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/> <echar...@american.edu> On Sun, Nov 21, 2021 at 1:10 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > Hmmm! https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html > > > > Are we looking at the same data? > > > > N > > > > Nick Thompson > > thompnicks...@gmail.com > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles > *Sent:* Saturday, November 20, 2021 10:13 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers > > > > I haven't looked up Santa Fe's numbers specifically... but if it is > anything like national numbers, the difference is that last year we were in > the early stages of a massive uptick, and this year we are in the middle of > a rapid fall off (with the recent cold snaps having no noticeable effect). > If you look at the graph below, you will see an upswing starting October > 18th of last year which peaked January 14th, and by Nov 20th it was > already 950 a day above where it started. In contrast, this year we are > down over 950 a day from the peak on Sept 24th. > > > > A winter spike could still happen, but we are over a month out from where > it started last year, but I don't think it is going to. If the current > trend continues, we'll be at a negligible number of deaths per day within > about 2 months. I think that's overly optimistic, but 3-4 months is > probably very realistic (barring a new variant), even if we allow for a > modest post-holiday uptick. > > > > How that should play into any particular person's particular plans, I > can't say. Even in the unrealistically-optimistic 2-month scenario, that's > still 30,000 more deaths. More than double that for the more realistic 4 > month scenario. > > > > > > > > > > On Sat, Nov 20, 2021 at 12:37 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Good to hear from you, Jackie. A fresh voice on the list. Always > welcome. Sometimes we regulars bore ourselves to death. > > > > We decided not to meet with the extended family in Houston, a hard > decision that I instantly stopped regretting when I saw the new numbers. > The only question in my mind is whether we avoid my son’s family for a week > or two when they return. People keep telling me about vaccinated people > they know who have croaked and I am definitely in the vulnerable group … > age, diabetes, heart disease --. There are some folks on this list who > are very good at numbers and have vulnerabilities of their own. I am > guessing we will hear from them in time. I am guessing that unless I am > planning to stay in my house for the rest of my life, I should probably not > worry about it too much. > > > > Thanks for your message. Don’t be a stranger. > > > > > > Nick Thompson > > thompnicks...@gmail.com > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Jacqueline Kazil > *Sent:* Friday, November 19, 2021 11:10 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers > > > > Hi! Jackie here. Nick, I too can get hysterical about Covid. I left DC for > Missouri and lived on a dead-end street in the country with my in-laws for > almost a year sharing a bedroom with my three year old and newborn. Then my > mom was in an intensive care situation after an accident - for 52 days. > This was in Florida during the summer surge -- at one point covid > positivity rate was > 25% in the county she was in. I couldn't leave > Florida, because my baby's daycare in DC has a covid policy that you had to > quarantine if your house was exposed to a covid positivity rate of >10% & > my moms hospital had a policy that said you had to quarantine if you leave > the state of Florida, you had a to quarantine (I didn't understand this > one. This was a policy for the sake of having a policy. All other states > were better places to be). With these two policies in play, despite not > seeing my children for more than a month and having to quit breastfeeding, > I decided not to travel home... and sometimes life sucks. [As I write this, > I feel like this is a simulation in the works.] > > > > In Florida during the time with my mom, I was pushed outside of my comfort > zone. I was in an environment where a lot of the population feels > differently than I do about safety. I also was walking into hospitals with > covid patients where vaccinated nurses were dropping like flies. I gave up > a little, because of the stress I only had so much energy to worry about > covid. A friend even convinced me to eat in a restaurant indoors -- barely, > once. > > > I just looked up Santa Fe county, and it is just over 10% covid positivity > rate. > > https://covidactnow.org/us/new_mexico-nm/county/santa_fe_county/?s=25691480 > > Covid positivity rate is supposed to be a signal of knowledge spreading. I > would say over 10% right before Thanksgiving is probably a not a good place > to be. This means it is spreading and people know, but some don't. With > families getting together -- the "some don't" part is not good. > > > > With my experience of being in various environments, I would say that if I > were in a place with a rate of 10% or higher, I would worry enough to > batten down the hatches for the holidays, because... sometimes life sucks. > I would limit the number of people I interacted with. > > > > Also to consider in this equation -- how many people already had covid > that already counted in the vaccine numbers. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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