Larry - I wonder if the difference is not so much weather versus climate, but local as opposed to regional or global variation (the "change" in GCC). We all probably agree that the global trends are reasonably clear and their trajectory can be anticipated. Sure, determining climate trends is de rigeur.
But is the monsoon not also "climate" in its locales? I claim no expertise here, but I understand the Monsoon has been a regular event for many millions of years, and SO regular in its timing that the arrival at any location is generally within a calendar week. (Variations in the severity of the monsoon are common, of course.) The loss of that regularity due to GCC is a major concern among agricultural planners (particularly farmers)... but the question is one of perception: is the (feared) variance caused by CC or is it a manifestation of "change". The "extremes of weather" expected globally are also manifestations of change, are they not? That the monsoon defines its own "average conditions" makes it more a regional (rather than global) CC; but changing the monsoon patterns is not a weather event. I would argue it's more like removing winter. Shane Mulligan SSHRC Postdoctoral Fellow Centre for Global Governance Research University of Waterloo 200 University Ave. West Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 “My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel.” —Saudi saying www.theoildrum.com --- On Tue, 11/17/09, rldavis <[email protected]> wrote: From: rldavis <[email protected]> Subject: Re: The Telegraph - Cold water on UN monsoon forecast models To: "Deb Ranjan Sinha" <[email protected]>, "Global Environmental Education" <[email protected]> Received: Tuesday, November 17, 2009, 3:53 PM This is a classic case of weather (monsoon) versus climate. The models do not predict weather but rather predict climate, the overall average of conditions over a long period of years. Larry Davis On 11/17/09 15:41, "Deb Ranjan Sinha" <[email protected]> wrote: > *None of the multiple computer simulations used by a UN climate-change agency > for assessments of global warming appears good enough to predict how India¹s > monsoon will behave, two Indian scientists have said. The researchers examined > 10 simulations of future climate scenarios used by the UN Intergovernmental > Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and found none could reproduce correctly the > behaviour of even 20th-century rainfall.* > > http://www.telegraphindia.com/1091117/jsp/nation/story_11748791.jsp > -- ************************************************************************* R. Laurence Davis, Ph.D. Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences and University Research Scholar Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences University of New Haven 300 Boston Post Road West Haven, Connecticut 06516 <[email protected]> Office: 203-932-7108 Fax: 203-931-6097 ************************************************************************* __________________________________________________________________ Ask a question on any topic and get answers from real people. Go to Yahoo! Answers and share what you know at http://ca.answers.yahoo.com
