Shane is, of course, correct-in attempting to transmit a short message, I oversimplified. The monsoon itself is “climate”, the amount of rain delivered, the length, atmospheric temperatures during this years monsoon or last years or next years is “weather”.
Larry On 11/17/09 18:06, "Shane Mulligan" <[email protected]> wrote: > > Larry - I wonder if the difference is not so much weather versus climate, but > local as opposed to regional or global variation (the "change" in GCC). We all > probably agree that the global trends are reasonably clear and their > trajectory can be anticipated. Sure, determining climate trends is de rigeur. > > But is the monsoon not also "climate" in its locales? I claim no expertise > here, but I understand the Monsoon has been a regular event for many millions > of years, and SO regular in its timing that the arrival at any location is > generally within a calendar week. (Variations in the severity of the monsoon > are common, of course.) The loss of that regularity due to GCC is a major > concern among agricultural planners (particularly farmers)... but the question > is one of perception: is the (feared) variance caused by CC or is it a > manifestation of "change". The "extremes of weather" expected globally are > also manifestations of change, are they not? That the monsoon defines its own > "average conditions" makes it more a regional (rather than global) CC; but > changing the monsoon patterns is not a weather event. I would argue it's more > like removing winter. > > > Shane Mulligan > SSHRC Postdoctoral Fellow > Centre for Global Governance Research > University of Waterloo > 200 University Ave. West > Waterloo, ON > N2L 3G1 > > > “My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son > will ride a camel.” > ―Saudi saying > www.theoildrum.com <http://www.theoildrum.com> > > > > > --- On Tue, 11/17/09, rldavis <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> From: rldavis <[email protected]> >> Subject: Re: The Telegraph - Cold water on UN monsoon forecast models >> To: "Deb Ranjan Sinha" <[email protected]>, "Global Environmental Education" >> <[email protected]> >> Received: Tuesday, November 17, 2009, 3:53 PM >> >> This is a classic case of weather (monsoon) versus climate. The models do >> not predict weather but rather predict climate, the overall average of >> conditions over a long period of years. >> >> Larry Davis >> >> >> On 11/17/09 15:41, "Deb Ranjan Sinha" <[email protected] >> </mc/[email protected]> > wrote: >> >>> > *None of the multiple computer simulations used by a UN climate-change >>> agency >>> > for assessments of global warming appears good enough to predict how >>> India¹s >>> > monsoon will behave, two Indian scientists have said. The researchers >>> examined >>> > 10 simulations of future climate scenarios used by the UN >>> Intergovernmental >>> > Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and found none could reproduce correctly >>> the >>> > behaviour of even 20th-century rainfall.* >>> > >>> > http://www.telegraphindia.com/1091117/jsp/nation/story_11748791.jsp >>> > -- ************************************************************************* R. Laurence Davis, Ph.D. Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences and University Research Scholar Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences University of New Haven 300 Boston Post Road West Haven, Connecticut 06516 <[email protected]> Office: 203-932-7108 Fax: 203-931-6097 *************************************************************************
