On Aug 7, 2011, at 8:43 AM, Beteena Paradise wrote:

<snip>

> Though I have not been vocal for long stretches of time, I have been on this 
> list for about 7 or 8 years. I know many of you have been around for much 
> longer. And I am sure that this was once the best place for everyone to 
> congregate and share and explore the topic together. But as technology has 
> moved 
> forward, email lists are a dying breed.

In my opinion, this is a key factor in what is going on.  _All_ internet 
social/topical-communications contexts are in a constant state of flux.  The 
activity and nature of each context is shaped not only by the structure of the 
interface (e.g., mailing list vs. usenet vs. blogs vs. organized 
blog-communities like LJ) and what types of interactions that interface 
encourages or discourages, enables or makes difficult -- but it's also shaped 
by the nature and trajectory of the group of people participating in it. 

 Is is growing, static, or shrinking?  What is the ratio of old-timers versus 
newcomers?  What is the ratio of substantive posts versus spam and trolling?  
Is the number of participates large enough to make a "critical mass" that keeps 
conversations going?  Is it so large that people give up on keeping up with 
everything and leave or skim?  

How general versus specialized is it?  Does that level of specificity match 
what people are looking for?  How many other contexts are there for the same 
topic, whether in other types of online structures or duplicated in the same 
structure?  (E.g., Usenet was very strict about preventing duplication of topic 
or overspecialization, but mailing lists and places like LJ may have dozens of 
contexts with an identical purpose.)

My own personal observation has been that pretty much every type of online 
discussion context goes through a similar trajectory:

1. The context is brand new and shiny and lots of people flock to it.  New 
people are constantly joining and there is a lot of conversation.

2. The context matures and stabilizes.  Units that fail to reach critical mass 
wither and die, but units that are vibrant and healthy form a sense of social 
unity and cohesion.  This tends to be the point  participates enjoy most and it 
is looked back on later as a Golden Age.

3. The context starts to feel over-large and bloated.  Many people -- often 
those with the most expertise and knowledge -- start to feel it is taking up 
too much of their time and they begin to withdraw.  Hot-button topics begin to 
recycle regularly.  If the security structure of the context allows for it, 
spam and other annoying commercialisms begin to expand in the proportion of 
content they take up.

4. The shiny newness has worn off.  For a variety of reasons (which would be 
another entire essay) a much smaller proportion of the content is new and 
substantive.  People participate less (contributing to the previous) and begin 
looking for a new place to get the same feeling they had in stage 2.

5. The context starts feeling like an abandoned urban center.  Depending on the 
structure, security architecture, and level of moderation, it may simply be 
full of abandoned buildings or it may be the haunt of metaphoric drug dealers 
and muggers.  A few remnants of the original population hang on, hoping that 
things will get back to what they were, but they don't have the energy or the 
critical mass to turn it around.

6. But the inhabitants have gone _somewhere_.  They just may be living a very 
different lifestyle, due to the structural differences in the new context 
they're inhabiting.

I have a much more extended version of this set of observations on my Live 
Journal here: 

http://hrj.livejournal.com/82752.html

and a follow-up here:

http://hrj.livejournal.com/92871.html

How's that for self-referentiality?

But I guess my overall comment is "Nothing is permanent on the internet except 
change.  This cycle of growth and decay has happened to absolutely every type 
of internet forum and is as natural a consequence of the nature of the medium 
as the forum's original growth and vibrancy was."

Heather
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