Classification: Confidential The last mainframe will be turned off in 1994 - Gartner Group
-----Original Message----- From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List <IBM-MAIN@LISTSERV.UA.EDU> On Behalf Of Seymour J Metz Sent: Thursday, February 22, 2024 11:11 AM To: IBM-MAIN@LISTSERV.UA.EDU Subject: Re: [Very much off-topic] Re: AI is the real deal. [CAUTION: This Email is from outside the Organization. Unless you trust the sender, Don’t click links or open attachments as it may be a Phishing email, which can steal your Information and compromise your Computer.] A 5-year prediction is generally safe, because in 5 years people will have forgotten the predictions. Who remembers the failed 5-year predictions for, e.g., controlled fusion, human level machine translation? I expect it to eventually happen, but as for when, Hypotheses non fingo <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypotheses_non_fingo>. On the flip side, hand optimization for pipelined machines is labor intensive and fragile; a compiler with an ARCHLVL parameter is better suited for the job. -- Shmuel (Seymour J.) Metz http://mason.gmu.edu/~smetz3 עַם יִשְׂרָאֵל חַי נֵ֣צַח יִשְׂרָאֵ֔ל לֹ֥א יְשַׁקֵּ֖ר ________________________________________ From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List <IBM-MAIN@LISTSERV.UA.EDU> on behalf of Tom Harper <000005bfa0e23abd-dmarc-requ...@listserv.ua.edu> Sent: Thursday, February 22, 2024 11:54 AM To: IBM-MAIN@LISTSERV.UA.EDU Subject: Re: [Very much off-topic] Re: AI is the real deal. Dave, I was told the same thing 54 years ago when I starting working at CalTrans. Managers would just be able to code in COBOL PROFITS = SALES - EXPENSES and we would all be out of a job. Of course, there are more programmers now than at any time in history. The question of assembler comes up from time to time, and the question has more nuances than you might think. As it turns out, there are lines of code and lines of executed code. What that means is that lines of code that are executed frequently are seldom written in a compiled language but are instead written in assembler. A good example is sort. In the 1970s sort typically used about a third of all processor and channel resources on a mainframe. Today that number is far lower, in the mid-teens despite the fact that much more data is being sorted. The reason for this is that some very brilliant assembler programmers at SyncSort and the IBM Dfsort team wrote code to highly optimize sorting and related functions. I’m counting PL/S as essentially assembler in this instance. The same is true at BMC Software and my own company Phoenix Software International: highly optimized assembler code greatly improved performance. Even though there are almost uncountable lines of COBOL code, it makes for a tiny fraction of executed code. Most compiled languages execute a few instructions and then invoke a CICS, IMS, or DB2 function. Starting in the 1980s, corporations the world over began to understand that it was much more cost-effective to buy or lease software from a vendor than develop it in house. These developers left the end-user companies and went to software houses where they primarily write in assembler. Now ever piece of software usually has parts that are not performance-sensitive, so they might get written in C++ or Rex or some other compiled language. I’ve grown up with software, having written my first program in 1960. Assembler won’t be gone in five years or anytime can the foreseeable future. So I would revisit your thoughts. Tom Harper Phoenix Software International Sent from my iPhone > On Feb 22, 2024, at 11:07 AM, Dave Beagle > <00000525eaef6620-dmarc-requ...@listserv.ua.edu> wrote: > > Assembler programming will be almost nonexistent in 5 years. > > > Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone > > > On Thursday, February 22, 2024, 10:32 AM, Robert Prins > <000005be6ef5bfea-dmarc-requ...@listserv.ua.edu> wrote: > > AI? > > More AS! > > This is on LinkedIn, it's AI generated and you can probably sue them > for jaw-dislocation due to excessive laughter: > > < > https://www/. > linkedin.com%2Fadvice%2F0%2Fhow-can-developers-take-ownership-bugs-ski > lls-system-development-x9cve&data=05%7C02%7Callan.staller%40HCL.COM%7C > cc68e10c66f6488fb04408dc33c94dc1%7C189de737c93a4f5a8b686f4ca9941912%7C > 0%7C0%7C638442186902794249%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDA > iLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=3tT > lvB8EH2KJyndo7QBf0U7KKjNBcexrXzghUxXy%2F5Q%3D&reserved=0 >> > >> On Wed, 21 Feb 2024 at 23:37, Dave Beagle < >> 00000525eaef6620-dmarc-requ...@listserv.ua.edu> wrote: >> >> Well, today was NVIDIA earnings day. They are the bellwether for AI. >> Theirs is the premier AI chip commanding top dollar. And they didn’t >> disappoint. Their revenues are up 400% in the last year. To 22 >> billion in the latest quarter. They’ve got another chip on tap this >> year which should continue the incredible growth. If you had invested >> $10,000 five years ago, you’d have earned 2000%, and would have >> $200,000. If you had invested $10,000 ten years ago, you’d have >> earned over 16,465%. And have >> 1.65 million. AI is only in its infancy. It will be bigger than the >> internet. Microsoft, META, Google, and nearly every IT company is >> betting big on AI. That spending will continue. NVIDIA’s market cap >> is approaching 2 trillion. It’s now the 3rd largest company in -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This e-mail message, including any attachments, appended messages and the information contained therein, is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s). 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