On Fri, 18 Oct 2002, Alper E. YEGIN wrote:
[...]
> >    Optimistic DAD is a useful optimization because DAD is far more
> >    likely to succeed than fail, by a factor of at least 10,000,000,000
> >    to one[SOTO].  This makes it worth a little disruption in the failure
> >    case to provide faster handovers in the successful case, as long as
> >    the disruption is recoverable.
> >
> > ==> this is totally, and completely wrong.  [SOTO] only provide analysis
> > in *some* cases, in particular autoconfigured vs privacy addresses.  For
> > manually assigned addresses, I believe the ratio is closer to 1:10 or
> > 1:100 (unmeasurable, of course).
> 
> I must be missing something.. How come this probability is so high?

It's due to the fact how manually assigning works.  There are two factors:
 1) IID assignment ("which address to use")
 2) configuration  ("avoiding typos")

It is natural that people doing manual configuration will try to prefer 
IID's like ::1, ::2, ::53, ::x etc. and there are much more likely to be 
conflicts there; also one should never underestimate the power of fat 
fingers :-)

-- 
Pekka Savola                 "Tell me of difficulties surmounted,
Netcore Oy                   not those you stumble over and fall"
Systems. Networks. Security.  -- Robert Jordan: A Crown of Swords

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