Ed Fischang (shadow) wrote: > On 29-Dec-04, Lowell C. Savage wrote: > > LCS> The problem with his analysis is that Ruth Bennett (the LP candidate > in > LCS> the gubernatorial race) did her best to run to the left. She > LCS> emphasized personal freedoms, was thoroughly "out of the closet" as > a > LCS> lesbian and favored "gay marriage."... > > You mean she actually campaigned? That's news to me out here in the > sticks.
Well...she did take "positions" and there was that little thing in the voter's pamphlet. > LCS> ... She claimed, immediately after the election, that she had cost > LCS> Christine Gregoire (Dem.) the election. Now, it appears that she > only > LCS> "nearly cost Christine Gregoire the election." > > LCS> Add in all the hanky-panky that went on with the recounts, and > you've > LCS> pretty much blown Chuck Muth's original premises clear out of the > LCS> water--and the rest of the argument with it. > > I really don't think so, Lowell. Just as there are diehard Ds and Rs who > vote > the straight party ticket, I believe there are thousands who vote for Ls > as a > protest because there is no "None of the above" on the ballot. And at this point, the chances of any of those diehard Ls voting for an R (or a D, for that matter) are about the same as the chances of a diehard R voting for a D or vice versa. So, you're left talking about the remaining votes. Statewide, here are the LP votes (from the vote.wa.gov site) in vote-total order, least to greatest: Pres./VP (Michael Badnarik/Richard V. Campagna): 11,955 Senator (J. Mills): 34,055 Attorney General (J. Bradley Gibson): 56,792 Governor (Ruth Bennett): 63,346 Secretary of State (Jacqueline Passey): 82,097 Commissioner of Public Lands (Steve Layman): 88,171 State Treasurer (John Sample): 96,144 State Auditor (Jason G. Bush): 101,161 Insurance Commissioner (Stephen D. Steele): 107,295 Lt. Governor (Jocelyn A Langlois): 117,147 At least at the Federal level, there only appear to be about 12,000 "diehard Ls". At the state level, there appear to be, at most 56,792 "diehard Ls". So there should be 6554 votes for Ruth Bennett that should be enough to throw the contest one way or another. The question is, where did those votes really come from? Did they come from disgusted Dems who were wanted medical marijuana, and gay marriage or did they come from frustrated Reps. who wanted school choice and whatever else they might have devined from Ruth's candidate statement. (See: http://www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/guide/statewide_results.aspx?o=7FR30bVZ qpnn5rCqJv1pVg%3d%3d ) There was also some exit-polling data that Ruth had referred to when making her statements about pulling more from Dems than from Reps. Of course, now that the recounts appear to have turned out differently, she may change her tune. Another race to look at is the State Auditor race. The Republican Party screwed up and ran a kook who wanted to set the State Auditor's office on a quest to find out "what really happened" in a Tacoma case where the police chief of one of Tacoma's suburbs murdered his ex-wife and then killed himself. He got 841,772 votes (lowest state-wide R total) from either die-hard Rs or from Rs who didn't bother to read the voter's pamphlet (hmm, is there a difference between those two types of Rs?) Both Rs in the two races where a L got a larger vote total managed to get over a million votes. Regardless, there's something else going on in WA besides just disillusioned Rs voting for Ls. And the Governor's race is definitely not another example of Chuck Muth's hypothesis. Lowell C. Savage It's the freedom, stupid! Gun control: tyrants' tool, fools' folly. _______________________________________________ Libnw mailing list Libnw@immosys.com List info and subscriber options: http://immosys.com/mailman/listinfo/libnw Archives: http://immosys.com/mailman//pipermail/libnw
