I don't see the AEU as being a necessarily villianous faction yet. There are enough dangling plot threads that they could very easily end up that way, but at they're still just as much a "regular" realist group as the other two super-powers in the story.
The primary reasons to think that they might be a villain faction are because of little oddities that we can only speculate on. There was the thought that our attention was being misdirected as the AEU hadn't revealed a response to the Gundams. But the last two episodes appear to have corrected this issue. There is still the issue of why the AEU hasn't completely finished its elevator yet, but this could very easily have a harmless solution.
The Atlantic Federation in SEED was very much a villain faction, and I remember wondering early on in that series when we were going to see some elements that might actually cause us to like that group (since Archangel was a member of the Federation). Those elements never arrived, and at Alaska it was plainly revealed that the Federation was in the pocket of Blue Cosmos.
In contrast the AEU largely appears apathetic at this time, with the only real question mark being the half-finished status of their elevator. They may yet turn out to be a villain group, but imo it's still too early to say with any real certainty.
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