I don't think this is accurate. It seemed to trigger right around the start of Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.  I don't think it's consistent or has the rhyme/reason you are trying to apply to it in your tests.  I would simply say if you have issues with delivery to Google, look at your SPF/DKIM/DMARC even if you weren't using them.

On 4/19/2022 12:34 PM, Steve Atkins via mailop wrote:
If you’re being blocked by Google, or “Google is requiring SPF to be accepted” or “I 
had to add DKIM to get mail accepted" then your sending infrastructure, history 
and mailstream reputation is worse than this test setup.
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