Tom,

The problem with this thinking is that Bill is referring to the mass
market and you are referring to the hobbyist/pro market.

In the mass market, everything I see, hear and experience myself says
that digital P&S's have basically surpassed 35mm P&S's in getting a
better picture.  Particularly for those who are not photographers.
That is why it could happen sooner than later.

In the pro arena, photojournalists have mostly made the switch
(quality is not the issue with them), sports photographers are
switching (not sure what percent yet - wouldn't be surprised if it was
over 50%)  All school photos are digital.  Wedding photography is
heavily moving to digital - my guess is more than 50%.  Product
photography would probably need the highest quality and may be moving
much slower.  Also, outdoor/landscape/scenic seems to be shot on 4X5
more often than not - that is still strong on film.

My guess is that the quickest and most abrupt change will come in the
consumer market - cheap films, labs, etc. will switch over rapidly.
The pro market will switch over more slowly - probably a few labs
changing or closing and a few films dropped, but should be more
viable for a longer period of time.  It is the one place that the
quality (larger than 35mm formats) can be justified.

-- 
Best regards,
Bruce


Thursday, July 22, 2004, 12:59:29 PM, you wrote:

TR> I think it will be when digital cameras can produce a sharper picture than
TR> film can. I'll switch when digital offers a clearly better picture at a
TR> decent price. That may not be too far off. It may take a while. We'll see.

TR> Tom Reese



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