On Wed, Nov 01, 2006 at 09:12:22PM -0000, Bob W wrote: > Your wise neurosurgeon might care to reflect on this: > (http://www.cyclecraft.co.uk/digest/effectiveness.pdf) > > "... the average distance cycled per person in the UK each year is > only 62 km42 (and in the Netherlands only 850 km43), so the average > cyclist would expect a serious injury only once in more than 80 lifetimes.
That would only be true if the likelihood of accident was directly proportional to distance travelled, which is a questionable assumption. Compare this, for example, to the equally often-quoted figure that 50% of all automobile accidents occur within 1.5 miles of the home. If this is true, and if the probability of an accident is directly proportional to the length of the journey, then we are forced to the conclusion that the average journey in an automobile is three miles. This is plainly ridiculous, so one of the underlying assumptions must be wrong. -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List PDML@pdml.net http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net
