> > From: John Francis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Date: 2006/11/01 Wed PM 10:26:38 GMT > To: Pentax-Discuss Mail List <pdml@pdml.net> > Subject: Re: Adults on bicycles > > On Wed, Nov 01, 2006 at 09:12:22PM -0000, Bob W wrote: > > Your wise neurosurgeon might care to reflect on this: > > (http://www.cyclecraft.co.uk/digest/effectiveness.pdf) > > > > "... the average distance cycled per person in the UK each year is > > only 62 km42 (and in the Netherlands only 850 km43), so the average > > cyclist would expect a serious injury only once in more than 80 lifetimes. > > That would only be true if the likelihood of accident was directly > proportional to distance travelled, which is a questionable assumption. > > Compare this, for example, to the equally often-quoted figure that > 50% of all automobile accidents occur within 1.5 miles of the home. > If this is true, and if the probability of an accident is directly > proportional to the length of the journey, then we are forced to the > conclusion that the average journey in an automobile is three miles. > This is plainly ridiculous, so one of the underlying assumptions > must be wrong.
I can find no online reference to journey distances on other than European and, oddly, South African sites. Discounting the ones that are measuring commuting journeys only, the only site that gives a number is this: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1997/01/01/000009265_3970716145200/Rendered/INDEX/multi_page.txt which says that 70% of Nederland journeys are under 7.5Km. About 5 miles. Away from southern UK, the majority of people commute only about 5 miles or so. Combined with a large number of vehicles doing very short journeys (delivery vans, waste collectors, post vehicles, door to door salespersons, travelling thieves, local authority workers, retired people) it is no suprise to me that average journey distances are in single figures. Short, regularly travelled routes seem to have a disproportionate number of accidents. I don't think anyone has done any work (at least, I can't find it online) to work out if that is merely due to a statistical function or if there is a human effect at work. ----------------------------------------- Email sent from www.ntlworld.com Virus-checked using McAfee(R) Software Visit www.ntlworld.com/security for more information -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List PDML@pdml.net http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net
