Chris wrote:

Look at the post-Soviet situation in the early 90s. The Union falls
apart, and you immediately start having all these bloody ethnic
conflicts around its former borders: Armenians vs. Azerbaijanis,
Georgians vs. Abkhazians and Ossetians, Romanians vs. Russians,
Ossetians vs. Ingush... There are 34 distinct ethno-cultural groups
in Dagestan, which is about the size of Maryland. There are villages
of a few hundred people there that are the only representatives of
entire languages. The potential for conflict is immense.

Something similar happened earlier, when the Ottoman Empire was defeated during WW1. The Ottoman Empire could integrate an endless variety of groups into its multicultural empire, but the nation-state of Turkey with its centrality of Turkish culture could not do the same thing -- hence wars on Armenians and Kurds.

The Soviet Union was defeated, as was the Ottoman Empire before it
and Yugoslavia after it -- first economically, later politically
(mainly from inside the the Soviet Union, its multinational elites
acting against its multinational masses) or with a combined
political, economic, and military warfare (Yugoslavia).  Russia and
Serbia today cannot be expected to play the same roles that the
Soviet Union and Yugoslavia used to be able to play.
--
Yoshie

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