One word, three syllables: "Asinine": But There Isn't An Epidemic Of Suicide In The US Military Comment Now <http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/02/02/but-there-isnt-an-epidemic-of-suicide-in-the-us-military/#comment_reply>
Follow Comments *http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/02/02/but-there-isnt-an-epidemic-of-suicide-in-the-us-military/* I was very surprised to see this headline in The Guardian today <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/01/us-military-suicide-epidemic-veteran> : US military struggling to stop suicide epidemic among war veterans It’s not all that unusual for The Guardian to snipe at the US military of course, but something about the way the subject was being treated puzzled me. Last year, more active-duty soldiers killed themselves than died in combat. Is this a story about how much better military medicine has got or one about how the system is driving huge numbers into suicide? The way the paper tells the story it’s that there is indeed some epidemic of suicide sweeping through the ranks of the military and veterans. And my problem is that having looked at the numbers I just don’t see it. I should of course point out that any and every suicide is a tragedy. Both for the person dying and for those they leave behind. And I would go on and insist that just one suicide is one too many. However, it’s also necessary to note that suicide does indeed happen in all walks of life. What we need to know is whether there are more than the normal number in one specific profession or occupation. Only then can we start to argue that there’s something specific to that occupation that leads to suicide. For example, with the military: it’s easy enough to postulate that a rise in Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) will lead to a rise in suicides. Indeed, we’d probably expect such a thing to happen. Thus, as more see combat, more suffer from that stress, we’d see the rate rise. But before we conclude that this is happening we do in fact need to check and see whether the rate is odd. Is out of order for the society which people come from. And that’s where this story of an epidemic of military suicides rather falls down. The actual suicide rate in the US military seems to be around and about that for the US as a whole. Soldiers and ex-soldiers don’t kill themselves in any greater numbers than the average American does. Here’s the numbers being quoted: In 2012, for the first time in at least a generation, the number of active-duty soldiers who killed themselves, 177, exceeded the 176 who were killed while in the war zone. To put that another way, more of America’s serving soldiers died at their own hands than in pursuit of the enemy. OK: obviously that’s both 177 and 176 too many. But is that 177 something unexpected, out of the ordinary? The US active service military is some 1.5 million strong <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_military>. The general suicide rate among all Americans is 12 per 100,000 per year. So, 15 x 12 would give us the expected number of suicides among active duty military: 180 per year. But that’s not quite right for a number of reasons: the most obvious being that they’re talking about “soldiers” not military. There’s some 600,000 (A note about numbers here. Getting the first digit and the number of digits correct is enough. Measuring the number of solders to the 6 th digit would just give a spurious sense of accuracy.) apparently, meaning that our expected number would be 6 x 12, or 72. Ah, but wait, by far the majority of those active service members will be male (women only just this past week being cleared for combat operations for example) so perhaps we should use the male suicide rate, not the population one? At around 25 <http://www.cdc.gov/ViolencePrevention/suicide/statistics/trends03.html> that gives us 6 x 25: 150. It’s not immediately apparent that the suicide rate in active service troops is higher than that of the general population. Especially when we add one more point <http://www.cdc.gov/ViolencePrevention/pdf/Suicide_DataSheet-a.pdf>: There is one suicide for every 25 attempted suicides I don’t think it’s all that much of a stretch to suggest that active duty troops, those who by definition have access to live ammunition and a gun, have a slightly different ratio of attempts to actual suicide. We can go on with the numbers: Across all branches of the US military and the reserves, a similar disturbing trend was recorded. In all, 349 service members took their own lives in 2012, while a lesser number, 295, died in combat. All military is more like 2.3 million people. 23 x 25 gives us 575 as our expected number assuming the military is all male. So the suicide rate seems to be lower than that of the male population (although higher than that expected from the rate for the general population, which would be 276). one of an astonishing 6,500 former military personnel who killed themselves in 2012, roughly equivalent to one every 80 minutes. And yes, that is a high and shocking number. But apparently there are 21 *million* veterans <http://www.infoplease.com/spot/veteranscensus1.html> in the US. 95% of them male so using again the male suicide rate we’d expect 5,250. It’s just very difficult indeed to see that there is an epidemic of suicides in the military: either serving personnel or veterans. Within the limits of the statistics being used the rates seem to be a little below or a little above those for American men generally. I just don’t see where the “epidemic” comes from. Some of the earlier stories on this (these stories come in waves as the Pentagon releases suicide statistics twice a year. Once estimates and unconfirmed cases, once a full tally) do note this point about the suicide rate <http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/28/16540098-like-an-airborne-disease-concern-grows-about-military-suicides-spreading-within-families?lite> : On Jan. 14, Department of Defense officials acknowledged that during 2012, service members committed suicide at a record pace as more than 349 people took their own lives across the four branches. The military suicide rate is slightly lower than that of the general public. Then again, we seem to have The Pentagon itself not quite understanding the numbers <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-25/military-faces-suicide-epidemic-panetta-tells-u-s-lawmakers.html> : The U.S. military is experiencing a suicide “epidemic,” with as many as 206 service members having taken their own lives this year, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told lawmakers today. (The numbers are different as it refers to a different year). There’s no grand conclusion here I’m afraid. Are there too many suicides? Most certainly, both in and out of the military for each and every one is a tragedy. Is the number of military suicides growing? It would appear so, but then so is the number of veterans so that isn’t entirely a surprise. But if the actual rate of suicide among current and past military members is the same (or possibly even a little lower) than that in the general population then it’s very difficult indeed to conclude that we’ve an “epidemic” going on. There is a small conclusion though. Before deciding that there’s a problem in a specific sector of society we do in fact have to go study the numbers to check that there is indeed a problem in a specific section of society. Given that the military suicide rate is similar to that of the country as a whole we’d have to conclude that the military suicide rate isn’t simply a military problem. If anything, it’s a societal one. But even that’s difficult to support given that the US suicide rate is very definitely mid-table <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate> as compared to other nations. I’m afraid that I’m just not getting the attention being given to this story. On Sun, Mar 1, 2015 at 10:57 AM, MJ <[email protected]> wrote: > > > <sigh> > <type> www.google.com > <type> "what is the suicide rate for veterans" > <click> > Detailed study confirms high suicide rate among recent veterans > By ALAN ZAREMBO <http://www.latimes.com/la-bio-alan-zarembo-staff.html> > January 14, 2015 > http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-veteran-suicide-20150115-story.html > <peruse> > > "One statistic has become a rallying cry: 22 veterans take their own lives > each day. > "That figure is a national estimate based on a Department of Veterans > Affairs analysis of death records from 21 states. Though it is usually > cited in the context of the recent wars, most of those suicides involved > older veterans, who account for the vast majority of the nation's 22 > million former service members." > > (435 + 100) Members of Congress / 22 Suicides per day = 24.3 days > > What is a "left extremist"? > How is the meme "spin"? > Does pretending "truth" and "substance" does not exist do *anything* other > than help in the maintenance of that pleasing vision of yours? > > Regard$, > --MJ > > "They changed the name from Armistice Day to Veterans Day because they > want people to forget that US soldiers died for nothing in WWI." -- Jacob > Hornberger > > > > At 10:27 AM 3/1/2015, you wrote: > > ​More far left extremist spin, with no substance or truth to support > such a ridiculous foundation. > ​ > > On Sun, Mar 1, 2015 at 9:03 AM, Travis <[email protected]> wrote: > Hope they go for it. > > On Sun, Mar 1, 2015 at 7:57 AM, plainolamerican < > [email protected]> wrote: > [image: []] > > -- > -- > Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. > For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum >  > * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ > * It's active and moderated. 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