I can't say that "Saves" is a useless stat.

While any stat can be challenged, I think you have to look at Mariano
Rivera, Papelbon, and other long-time closers to see the value of the
stat.  If the stat had no value, then the idea of closers would have no
value.

 

John

 

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John Paul Beaudoin, Sr.

Mentor Graphics Corporation

Sr. Account Manager

Office (781) 684-3011

Cell (508) 277-7276

________________________________

From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Steve Ouellette
Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 12:11 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Fixing "Wins"

 

I totally agree that wins are highly overrated ... but saves are an
example of a decent counting stat? Saves are one of the WORST counting
stats. A whole generation of mediocre pitchers have become rich because
they were able to compile "saves" by protecting a three-run lead with no
one on for one inning. 

Steve O

On Mon, Jul 26, 2010 at 10:36 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:

Yesterday we saw that "Wins" as we count them today are a useless
pitching stat.  They are only vaguely correlated to the skill of a
pitcher and can be picked up through sheer luck. 

 

That said, I think it would be good to have better "counting" stats for
pitchers.  Saves are an example of a decent counting stat.  They measure
pitching in difficult situations.  So if I were king of the world (a
horrible scenario) I'd like to see the following pitching stats.

 

First a simple rule.  All these stats only apply if the tying run is on
deck when the pitcher enters the game.  They are counted when the
pitcher leaves the game.

 

There are two basic stats:

 

1. The hold -- The team had the lead when the pitcher entered the game
and kept it when he left.

2. The blown hold -- The team had the lead or a tie when the pitcher
entered the game and didn't have it when he left.

 

This gives us the following:

 

1.  Win -- A hold that happens the inning after a team takes the lead

2.  Loss -- A blown hold in a game where the team never regains the lead

3.  Save -- A hold at the end of the game

 

4.  Hold  -- as defined

2. Blown hold -- as defined

 

So in yesterday's game Oki would have gotten the loss and Aardmsa would
have gotten a Win and a Save.

 

Ray

 


-- 
Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide"
www.fpgasimulation.com



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