I agree.

The available pool of "horses" has diminished considering expansion.

Expansion has watered down many aspects of the game.

Steroids have had an impact as well.

 

 

 

From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Matt & Olga
McSorley
Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 12:36 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Fixing "Wins"

 

Worse, I think modern bullpen management (which drives me nuts) is built
around the save -- a stat invented in the late 60s by Chicago Tribune
writer Jerome Holtzman.

 

Can someone help me out here: The other night the Red Sox radio guys
were talking about how starters who go above 200 innings are "horses"
these days and that lots of people in the game think starting pitchers
need a break in the middle of the season to conserve their arms.

 

How the hell did baseball survive for so many decades on four-man
rotations where guys routinely threw 300 innings a year? I'm tempted to
say the problem is that today's players and pitchers are soft. Am I off
base?

 

-- Matt 

 

________________________________

From: Steve Ouellette <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Sent: Mon, July 26, 2010 12:10:51 PM
Subject: Re: Fixing "Wins"

I totally agree that wins are highly overrated ... but saves are an
example of a decent counting stat? Saves are one of the WORST counting
stats. A whole generation of mediocre pitchers have become rich because
they were able to compile "saves" by protecting a three-run lead with no
one on for one inning. 

Steve O

On Mon, Jul 26, 2010 at 10:36 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:

Yesterday we saw that "Wins" as we count them today are a useless
pitching stat.  They are only vaguely correlated to the skill of a
pitcher and can be picked up through sheer luck.  

 

That said, I think it would be good to have better "counting" stats for
pitchers.  Saves are an example of a decent counting stat.  They measure
pitching in difficult situations.  So if I were king of the world (a
horrible scenario) I'd like to see the following pitching stats.

 

First a simple rule.  All these stats only apply if the tying run is on
deck when the pitcher enters the game.  They are counted when the
pitcher leaves the game.

 

There are two basic stats:

 

1. The hold -- The team had the lead when the pitcher entered the game
and kept it when he left.

2. The blown hold -- The team had the lead or a tie when the pitcher
entered the game and didn't have it when he left.

 

This gives us the following:

 

1.  Win -- A hold that happens the inning after a team takes the lead

2.  Loss -- A blown hold in a game where the team never regains the lead

3.  Save -- A hold at the end of the game

 

4.  Hold  -- as defined

2. Blown hold -- as defined

 

So in yesterday's game Oki would have gotten the loss and Aardmsa would
have gotten a Win and a Save.

 

Ray

 


-- 
Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide"
www.fpgasimulation.com <http://www.fpgasimulation.com/> 



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