Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

N - I read this as "Glen being Glen" which I approve of... ... that doesn't mean you don't get credit for inflicting your own inner vocabulary (or simply the lexicon of your profession?) on us... Some of us appreciate what might otherwise seem idiosyncratic. I had to parse this one very care

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

Same could be said of these algorithms. http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/docs/description/node2.html From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Nick Thompson Sent: Friday, September 09, 2016 8:09 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re: [FR

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

Glen, You wrote: There's no doubt that any form of inference done by humans is subject to premature registration or even apophenia. But the inverted claim, that _all_ registration is premature (or imaginary) is way too strong, and perhaps a case of tu quoque. Narcissist that I a

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

Frank, I would say that one can program a computer to make inferences. It may use statistics to do so. So, you could give it a “persistence forecast” algorithm. Then you type in “it rained today” and the computer will type out “it will probably rain tomorrow.” Nick Nichola

Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow

I found that article on Enough with this Basic Income Bullshit an interesting read. I had to wonder why he capitalized Entrepreneur, as if it were Realtor, or some other nonsensical social climbing, but I agree that the system will need major overhauls. He is not alone in believing this, given a

Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow

glen - As usual, I ignore all the places where we agree and emphasize the disagreements ... because life is more fun that way. 8^) I understand that... though it IS my habit to acknowledge the things I agree on to more starkly expose the ones I don't (or at least I try to do that). I'm not

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

The investment aspect of the term is not inaccurate (not unlike with Bitcoin mining).Tabulating and calculating trillions of p-values (or SHA256 hashes) is not cheap. It's different than trying out a few hypotheses, ur, propectin'. -Original Message- From: Friam [mailto:friam-bo

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

Nick asks: > How does thinking of data as > encased in a non-dynamic subterranean matrix shape our (your) thinking for > good > or ill? I'm astounded that *that* is the (most) salient part of the metaphor to your mind. I'd sooner know, "how does talking of data as something that is suscept

Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow

As usual, I ignore all the places where we agree and emphasize the disagreements ... because life is more fun that way. 8^) On 09/09/2016 12:01 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: (I rarely actually hang by the media outlet waiting for these things). I'm not sure when it happened. But at some point I

Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow

Steve writes: He also recently returned from the UK (pleasure not business) and said something that matches my own experience, such as it is. He said that he predicts that in spite of the vote, by the time the 2 years are up for exercising the actual Brexit, there will not turn out to be enoug

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

He can look it up on Wikipedia if he wants to know. From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Sent: Friday, September 09, 2016 1:16 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics Have computers made inference

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

Have computers made inferences? I know the obvious answer but Nick uses language in a special way. Frank Frank Wimberly Phone (505) 670-9918 On Sep 9, 2016 1:02 PM, "Nick Thompson" wrote: > M- > > > > No statistic has ever made an inference. > > > > N > > > > Nicholas S. Thompson > > Emeritus

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

M- No statistic has ever made an inference. N Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...

Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow

Glen - I've found this graph the most interesting rendering of the electoral game: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html#explore-paths Interesting fault tree (I wanted to say dendogram, but I'm not sure it has all of the properties necessary. I

Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow

On 9/7/16 1:51 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: I just returned from a trip from the UK. I think rumors of the demise of their economy have been greatly exaggerated. Brexit will hurt the people that voted for it, just like Trump would hurt the people that voted for him.These aren’t the peopl

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

There's no doubt that any form of inference done by humans is subject to premature registration or even apophenia. But the inverted claim, that _all_ registration is premature (or imaginary) is way too strong, and perhaps a case of tu quoque. On 09/09/2016 11:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Fi

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

Fine, “statistical inference” then. From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Nick Thompson Sent: Friday, September 09, 2016 12:38 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics And data “mining” is a metaphor. Now people

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

And data “mining” is a metaphor. Now people claim to use metaphors “metaphorically”, by which they mean that they mean nothing by them. But it is my “teery”* (and it is all mine) that nobody uses a metaphor but that hizr thinking is influenced by it. The influence can be inexplicit, in w

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

tanstaafl, of course. The concept of "levels" is good but misleading. It's more useful to think in terms of layers. As Marcus hints, we can combine induction with abduction and triangulate our way towards hypotheses with more and more (layered) structure. The more structure assumed for a hyp

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

I would say a statistical inference is less generative than a theory. A theory in some sense asserts how things really work. Data mining may stumble across the crucial aspects of a mechanism (whether it is physical, sociological, etc.) but they may also just being seeing some derived quantity

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

Marcus, That's an interesting distinction. Is it the case that by "theory" Nick was referring to something verbal and explicitly metaphorical, or would the results of data mining, which one sought to validate on a different sample, count as a "theory". So, for example, if my data mining of Marine

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

“I know that theories are really useful for making predictions, but can one actually make a prediction without one?” Yes, that’s what data mining is: Take a large corpus of data, find some statistically rare relationships, and then test for their predictive value on another large corpus of dat

Re: [FRIAM] speaking of analytics

Hi, Roger. That was some hurricane, huh? I thought of you in Boston Harbor, battened against the lashing gales. Speaking of analytics, I was struck by the notion of having a prediction without a theory. I am wondering if that is actually possible. I know that theories are really u