Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread Andrew Crystall
On 4 Aug 2006 at 8:48, Nick Arnett wrote:

> Now that you have read this, surely you cannot still believe that the
> administration's arguments for the were supported by the intelligence.  How
> do we deal with this?  An easy answer would be to blame conservatives and
> run to the left.  But blame has never healed any wounds. I think that
> somehow we have to acknowledge what really happened, take responsibility for
> it as a nation (rather than blaming one political faction), talk about it,
> memorialize it and seek to identify whatever good might come out of it.  I
> don't think that our military power can redeem the error, but I do believe
> the error can be redeemed.

That Iraq is considered a "error to be redeemed" says a lot...that 
essentially there was no value in overthrowing a tyrant who had 
previous US support, that the loss of life before the invasion was 
not significant and so on.

It was not an "error" to overthrow Saddam. Sure, your government lied 
to you about the reasons, and by all means call them to account for 
it, but overthrowing that sort of unstably dangerous tyrant isn't a 
mistake.

AndrewC
Dawn Falcon

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Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread Charlie Bell


On 05/08/2006, at 11:34 PM, Andrew Crystall wrote:



It was not an "error" to overthrow Saddam. Sure, your government lied
to you about the reasons, and by all means call them to account for
it, but overthrowing that sort of unstably dangerous tyrant isn't a
mistake.


It is if you're replacing him with a vacuum. Saddam could have waited  
another 6 month or a year, with more and more pressure. The  
"Coalition" could have genuinely won the "hearts and minds" of the  
Iraqis. There must have been better ways than what they chose.


Charlie
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Re: First Freedom First

2006-08-05 Thread Andrew Crystall
On 3 Aug 2006 at 11:43, Dave Land wrote:

> Folks,
> 
> I just signed a petition at http://firstfreedomfirst.org/ aimed
> at ensuring freedom of -- and from -- religion in America. It is
> sponsored by Americans United for Separation of Church and State,
> among others. I'm for that, too.

'Far as I can tell it prevents discussion of important issues, makes 
it impossible to discuss the motivations of certain people elected at 
least partially because of the religion (campaign issue or not) and 
also makes it harder to question religious policys put foward under 
another name.

AndrewC
Dawn Falcon

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Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread Nick Arnett

On 8/5/06, Andrew Crystall <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:




It was not an "error" to overthrow Saddam. Sure, your government lied
to you about the reasons, and by all means call them to account for
it, but overthrowing that sort of unstably dangerous tyrant isn't a
mistake.



That's part of what redeems it, if what results is better.  By many
objective measures, Iraq is much worse off now, some of which are the
inevitable consequences of violence.

Nick

--
Nick Arnett
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Messages: 408-904-7198
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Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread Andrew Crystall
On 5 Aug 2006 at 23:49, Charlie Bell wrote:

> 
> On 05/08/2006, at 11:34 PM, Andrew Crystall wrote:
> 
> >
> > It was not an "error" to overthrow Saddam. Sure, your government lied
> > to you about the reasons, and by all means call them to account for
> > it, but overthrowing that sort of unstably dangerous tyrant isn't a
> > mistake.
> 
> It is if you're replacing him with a vacuum. Saddam could have waited  
> another 6 month or a year, with more and more pressure. The  
> "Coalition" could have genuinely won the "hearts and minds" of the  
> Iraqis. There must have been better ways than what they chose.

The Americans could train their troops in peacekeeping tactics, yes. 
I still don't understand, to this day, why they do not.

And setting up a central strong government...again, an American 
mistake. America doesn't have one (ffs!), and a government of limited-
autonomy regions would of worked better.

The war? That went really well. It's the peace which has been 
difficult. The "pressure" which hadn't topped him in...a lot of 
years...was not about to do anything except make him crack down 
harder on his populace.

AndrewC
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What is WMD?

2006-08-05 Thread Dan Minette


> -Original Message-
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Nick Arnett
> Sent: Friday, August 04, 2006 7:45 PM
> To: Killer Bs Discussion
> Subject: Re: RFK Jr. interview
> 
> On 8/4/06, Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> >
> > It is in the first Key Judgment on page 5 of the report (page 9 in
> > Acrobat).
> > The first two sentences read:
> >
> > "We judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
> > program in defiance of the UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has
> > chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in
> excess
> > of
> > UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear
> > weapons
> > program."
> 
> 
> A program is not a weapon, just a plan to get rich is not money.  You're
> reading it the way you want to, not using the meanings it makes clear.  Do
> realize how very, very carefully they pick the language in these reports?
> Who and how many people review it (which actually is classified)?  Where
> it says "weapons," if it mean "weapons of mass destruction," it would have
> said so.  Maybe you think this is nitpicking... but this is 
> an intelligence brief for the president and security council, they are 
> very, very precise in what they say.  If they weren't, then how would the
> consumers of the report know when they are talking about ordinary weapons,
> which Iraq certainly had, and WMDs?

_By definition_ chemical and biological weapons are WMD.  Yes they are
careful in what they write, but they do not anticipate a defense lawyer
trying to explain a totally different meaning to a jury from the one
intended.  

The common use of the term MWD, as well as the prevalent use by the
Administration is the grouping of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons.
When the administration has deviated from this, it is by extending the
definition to other forms of mass destruction.  For example, the planes that
hit the WTC and Pentagon were called, by some, WMD. Another example of a
more consistent extension of WMD is the extension to the use of radiological
weapons (e.g. a conventional bomb covered with Cs-137. 

So, while all WMD may not be biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons; all
biological chemical or nuclear weapons are WMD.  Thus, saying biological WMD
weapons is redundant.

The other lawyerly hair splitting that you did is to distinguish between
massive supplies of things like sarin gas, and sarin gas weapons.  For this
distinction to be a valid one, one of two things has to be true.

1) There is another, legitimate reason for a country to have massive
quantities of sarin gas besides having it ready for an attack. It is true
that some materials that can be weaponized also has legitimate use. One good
example of this comes from home grown terrorism: Oklahoma city.  If a farmer
has massive quantities of fuel oil and nitrogen fertilizer stored on his
property, he probably has a very good reason for this.  The fuel oil is for
his diesel tractor, while the fertilizer is for his crops.  Possession of
these materials is not suspicious in his case.

If a bunch of neo-Nazis have hundreds of pounds of fertilizer and barrels of
fuel oil in a basement, it is very suspicious.  They have no good reason to
have these.  Thus, further investigation is warranted.

2) The development of the delivery system is a significant problem, apart
from the development of the active agent. The only example I can think of is
the effort required to develop an atomic bomb, once one has the requisite
number of kilos of enriched uranium or plutonium.  

With chemical and biological weapons, this is not the case.  IIRC, the WMD
attack on the Kurds involved the spraying of the villages from helicopters.
Something akin to a simple crop duster is a sufficient delivery mechanism.  
With a couple of weeks, given a very simple machine shop and a charge card
good at Home Depot, I could personally put together something that would
work. 

A more efficient way of doing this from a distance would be missiles or
artillery shells.  The report noted that Hussein did have a number of these
shells found earlier.  Other shells, IIRC, were not properly accounted for.
Even if he had none on hand, the ability to fill a rocket or a shell with
high pressure gas or anthrax powder is fairly straightforward.  I probably
wouldn't want to do it myself, but there are machine shops I could have a
rush order done in a week or so that I know of.
> 
> Even if you stretch the implications of the intelligence as much as you
> would, then it still doesn't present a foundation for what the
> administration said to justify the war.  

It's not a matter of stretching the implications.  It's a matter of taking
the common understanding of the words.  Having hundreds of tons of chemical
agents, such as mustard gas or sarin, is considered by most to be, by
definition, having WMD.  I realize that the report didn't state that Iraq
had delivery systems

RE: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread Dan Minette


> -Original Message-
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Charlie Bell
> Sent: Saturday, August 05, 2006 8:49 AM
> To: Killer Bs Discussion
> Subject: Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate
> 
> 
> On 05/08/2006, at 11:34 PM, Andrew Crystall wrote:
> 
> >
> > It was not an "error" to overthrow Saddam. Sure, your government lied
> > to you about the reasons, and by all means call them to account for
> > it, but overthrowing that sort of unstably dangerous tyrant isn't a
> > mistake.
> 
> It is if you're replacing him with a vacuum. Saddam could have waited
> another 6 month or a year, with more and more pressure. 

Given the situation, I don't think there was a way to ratchet up pressure
from what it was.  The US was forward deployed and combat ready in a way
that it wasn't ready to sustain for a year.  I think that the US could have
got a resolution at the UN that would allow for the imposition of smart
sanctions, but I think that, as the bribing of the French UN delegate shows,
that even smart sanctions would have workarounds. 

I do agree, thought, that Hussein could have waited a couple of years, given
what we knew at the time.  We could have focused our effort on rebuilding
Afghanistan, pouring a good deal of money into that small country.

>The "Coalition" could have genuinely won the "hearts and minds" of the
> Iraqis. There must have been better ways than what they chose.

There were.  And, the ironic part of it was that those better plans were
available to be used before the war.  The State Department, using their
expertise in development, had a well developed, realistic plan for post war
Iraq.  In addition, the present ambassador, who by all accounts is very
skilled at his job, was ready to step in and start things moving.

Unfortunately, Bush decided to go for the Cheney/Rumsfeld "plan" which was
nothing more than loosely sketched wishful thinking.  Day care managers who
had their resumes on the Heritage Foundation website ended up running the
Iraq economy, while the youngest project manager in the history of the JFK
school of government, who's experience was in international development in
Russia, had his application tabled for months on end.  He had the
application in, knowing full well that he might die as a result, but feeling
that success in Iraq was critical for the next 20 years.  He is, of course,
our own Gautam.

This is where I fault the administration.  To me, it has all the elements of
a true tragedy.  The quest, overturning a cruel dictator and bringing
democracy and prosperity to the Iraqi people, is heroic.  The quest is
betrayed by the hubris of the key players: the Bush administration.  As a
result, they do untold damage to their own cause.

Dan M. 


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RE: What are WMD?

2006-08-05 Thread Dan Minette
Correct the header. :-)

Dan M.


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Re: What be WMD?

2006-08-05 Thread Robert Seeberger

- Original Message - 
From: "Dan Minette" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "'Killer Bs Discussion'" 
Sent: Saturday, August 05, 2006 1:20 PM
Subject: RE: What are WMD?


> Correct the header. :-)
>
> Dan M.

Modernized now.




xponent
Header Follies Maru
rob 


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Re: Once more into the 9-11 breach

2006-08-05 Thread Robert Seeberger
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060805/ap_on_go_ot/sept11_commission_7

The Sept. 11 commission was so frustrated with repeated misstatements 
by the Pentagon and FAA about their response to the 2001 terror 
attacks that it considered an investigation into possible deception, 
the panel's chairmen say in a new book.

Republican Thomas Kean and Democrat Lee Hamilton also say in "Without 
Precedent" that their panel was too soft in questioning former New 
York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani — and that the 20-month investigation may 
have suffered for it.

The book, a behind-the-scenes look at the investigation, recounts 
obstacles the authors say were thrown up by the Bush administration, 
internal disputes over President Bush's use of the attacks as a reason 
for invading Iraq, and the way the final report avoided questioning 
whether U.S. policy in the Middle East may have contributed to the 
attacks.

Kean and Hamilton said the commission found it mind-boggling that 
authorities had asserted during hearings that their air defenses had 
reacted quickly and were prepared to shoot down United Airlines Flight 
93, which appeared headed toward Washington.

In fact, the commission determined — after it subpoenaed audiotapes 
and e-mails of the sequence of events — that the shootdown order did 
not reach North American Aerospace Command pilots until after all of 
the hijacked planes had crashed.

The book states that commission staff, "exceedingly frustrated" by 
what they thought could be deception, proposed a full review into why 
the FAA and the Pentagon's NORAD had presented inaccurate information. 
That ultimately could have led to sanctions.

Due to a lack of time, the panel ultimately referred the matter to the 
inspectors general at the Pentagon and Transportation Department. Both 
are preparing reports, spokesmen said this week.

"Fog of war could explain why some people were confused on the day of 
9/11, but it could not explain why all of the after-action reports, 
accident investigations and public testimony by FAA and NORAD 
officials advanced an account of 9/11 that was untrue," the book 
states.

The questioning of Giuliani was considered by Kean and Hamilton "a low 
point" in the commission's examination of witnesses during public 
hearings. "We did not ask tough questions, nor did we get all of the 
information we needed to put on the public record," they wrote.

Commission members backed off, Kean and Hamilton said, after drawing 
criticism in newspaper editorials for sharp questioning of New York 
fire and police officials at earlier hearings. The editorials said the 
commission was insensitive to the officials' bravery on the day of the 
attacks.

"It proved difficult, if not impossible, to raise hard questions about 
9/11 in New York without it being perceived as criticism of the 
individual police and firefighters or of Mayor Giuliani," Kean and 
Hamilton said.

Congress established the commission in 2002 to investigate government 
missteps leading to the Sept. 11 attacks. Its 567-page unanimous 
report, which was released in July 2004 and became a national best 
seller, does not blame Bush or former President Clinton but does say 
they failed to make anti-terrorism a high priority before the attacks.

The panel of five Republicans and five Democrats also concluded that 
the Sept. 11 attacks would not be the nation's last, noting that 
al-Qaida had tried for at least 10 years to acquire weapons of mass 
destruction.

In their book, which goes on sale Aug. 15, Kean and Hamilton recap 
obstacles they say the panel faced in putting out a credible report in 
a presidential election year, including fights for access to 
government documents and an effort to reach unanimity.

Among the issues:

• Iraq. The commission threatened to splinter over the question of 
investigating the administration's use of 9/11 as a reason for going 
to war. The strongest proponent was original member Max Cleland, a 
Democratic former senator who later stepped down for separate reasons.

If Cleland had not resigned, the commission probably would not have 
reached unanimity, according to the book. Ultimately, commissioners 
decided to touch briefly on the Iraq war by concluding there was no 
"collaborative relationship" between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaida; the 
administration had asserted there were substantial contacts between 
the two.

• Israel. The commission disagreed as to how to characterize 
al-Qaida's motives for attacking the U.S., with Hamilton arguing that 
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the presence of U.S. forces in 
the Middle East were major contributors.

Unidentified members believed that "listing U.S. support for Israel as 
a root cause of al-Qaida's opposition to the United States indicated 
that the United States should reassess that policy," which those 
commission members di

Re: Since planetary science has been ruled "on-topic" :)

2006-08-05 Thread Dave Land

Fine, then.

If that's the case, I suppose that lunar orbital dynamics are not
entirely off topic, so you may enjoy reading about "3753 Cruithne",
Earth's "second moon", with its very unusual compound "kidney
bean"/"horseshoe" orbit with a period around the "kidney bean" of
about 380 days, while that orbit follows the "horseshoe" pattern
around the earth every 770 years or so:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3753_Cruithne

Furthermore, I hope that an extremely funny couple of clips from the
British "humour programme" QI that mention Cruithne (and teach us
that it is pronounced "Crew-in-yay" or some such) would not meet
with the kind of rage that accompanies, say, a review of recently
declassified bits of the National Intelligence Estimate of 2002 or
further info about 9/11:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=tKmYyGyGEV8

Dave

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RE: Wealthy couples travel to U.S. to choose baby's sex

2006-08-05 Thread Deborah Harrell
> Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > Behalf Of Deborah Harrell
> > > Dan Minette wrote:
> > > > >DanM wrote:

> >  <>

> > >  ...The thesis is that the mother and
> > > society owe the child at least a chance at life.
> > > For a right-to-life
> > > person, every child has an inalienable right to
> > > life.  The only possible
> > > exception is when their right to life conflicts
> with the right to life of
> > > the mother.  The mother's health is important,
> > > of course, but not as
> > > critical as the child's life.  One would wish,
> > >  of course, to choose both,
> > > but when push comes to shove, the right to life
> > > predominates.
 
> > Disagree.  I would not forbide a mentally
> competent
> > woman, who knows that being pregnant will most
> likely
> > kill her, from continuing the pregnancybut to
> >say that a woman whose
> > pregnancy will probably kill her *must* continue
> > is contributing to the murder of a realized, as
> >opposed to potential, human life.
 
> I didn't say that. Anti-abortion laws supported by
> the right to life
> movement usually have exceptions for pregnancies
> that put the mother's life at serious risk. 

Hmm, I was probably overreacting re: the recent South
Dakota law, which does not except it (if what I've
read is correct).
 
> BTW, I was trying to lay out two positions: the
> pro-choice and the pro-life
> positions.  My point was that folks tend to argue
> from their own axioms,
> ignoring the axioms of those they differ with.

 And I was refusing to have my pro-choice stance
deny _any_ protection to the unborn (teratogens etc.)

> > By such 'pushing and shoving' rights, one would be
> > justified in dropping certain persons in power
> into a
> > combat zone since they have been, and are, and
> will
> > be, responsible for multiple civilian deaths of
> men,
> > women, and children, as well as some unborn.  
> 
> I'm not sure that pacifism is required to support
> the right to life. 

Perhaps not.  My attempt was to point out the
inconsistancies in being anti-abortion yet shrugging
off civilian deaths in war as unavoidable collateral
damage.  (Probably a bit snippy having recently heard
that Iraqi civilian casualties are ~ 100/*day* now.)
 
> > Once again, one could argue that anyone who starts
> > a war and causes any "collateral damage" is a
> > cold-blooded killer...
 
> So, are you arguing that, for example, that the
> bombing that delayed Hussein
> getting the bomb until after Gulf War I is
> equivalent to cold blooded
> killing, even though it may have saved millions of
> lives?
 
But we didn't *start* that war - Hussein invaded
Kuwait.  (OK, we were partly responsible for SH being
in power at that time; if you take that position, then
I'd concede that the US bears some blame.)  Finishing
a war is one thing; starting quite another.

> > > The scenario I proposed was a "half-a-loaf"
> thought.
> > >  If it is impossible to
> > > stop all murder, it is still worthwhile to stop
> > > some.  And, with this
> > > scenario, the right-to-life people have at least
> > > a chance to save every
> > > child's life.  A chance to save a human life is
> > > better than no chance to save a human life.
> > 
> > Unless it's the woman whose pregnancy is
> > life-threatening to her?
> 
> In outlining the right to life movement's position,
> I did not equate health
> to life.  Exceptions to anti-abortion laws for the
> mother's health means
> that any possible deterioration in the mother's
> health is grounds for
> abortion.  It's basically abortion on
> demand...especially if, as it always
> is, mental health is included.  All the woman would
> need to say is that
> thinking about carrying to term makes her depressed,
> and there is a valid DSM-IV diagnosis. 
> 
> Exceptions for the mother's life means that she has
> to have some significant
> risk of dying from pregnancy for the pregnancy to be
> terminated. 
 
I understand your position better.  WRT a woman with
poor mental health raising a child, and that child
being neglected/abused: what do you think of the
_Freakonomics_ position that crime is down since RvW
b/c those aborted didn't enter a life of crime?  (I
think it's an interesting observation, but unproven.)

> > "If one accepts" - From a medical standpoint, an
> 8- or
> > 15-week fetus is not an infant or a child.
> 
> Medical categories are just that, categories.  Women
> are different from men,
> premature infants display less cognitive ability
> than some grown non-human
> primatesyet killing an infant is murder, just as
> killing an adult is,
> and just as killing an ape isn't.

Nor, under law, is aborting a 15-week fetus.

BTW, Alberto, interesting take; Charles Dart would
approve.
 
> > Now _you_ are judging which life is more valuable
> >than another.  
> 
> No, I'm judging that 5 million deaths is worse that
> 500.  

?  Sorry, missing that?  Please clarify.
 
> > > One of the ideas that came from the
> > >Enlightenment is that "all men are

Re: Since planetary science has been ruled "on-topic" :)

2006-08-05 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
Dave Land wrote:
>
> If that's the case, I suppose that lunar orbital dynamics
>
Long time ago, I used to work on this topic...

> are not
> entirely off topic, so you may enjoy reading about "3753 Cruithne",
> Earth's "second moon", with its very unusual compound "kidney
> bean"/"horseshoe" orbit with a period around the "kidney bean" of
> about 380 days, while that orbit follows the "horseshoe" pattern
> around the earth every 770 years or so:
>
It's not a moon, it's a "Trojan". The Trojan resonance is that defined
by a 1:1 relation in the period relative to the primary [in this case, the
Sun]. Cruithne orbits the Sun, it's a small body, so it's an asteroid.

Alberto Monteiro
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RE: Wealthy couples travel to U.S. to choose baby's sex

2006-08-05 Thread Dan Minette


> -Original Message-
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Deborah Harrell
> Sent: Saturday, August 05, 2006 5:34 PM
> To: Killer Bs Discussion
> Subject: RE: Wealthy couples travel to U.S. to choose baby's sex
> 
> 
>  And I was refusing to have my pro-choice stance
> deny _any_ protection to the unborn (teratogens etc.)

OK, fine.  Then the question on the table should be who is a protected
person being and what is not.


> 
> Perhaps not.  My attempt was to point out the
> inconsistancies in being anti-abortion yet shrugging
> off civilian deaths in war as unavoidable collateral
> damage.  (Probably a bit snippy having recently heard
> that Iraqi civilian casualties are ~ 100/*day* now.)


 
> But we didn't *start* that war - Hussein invaded
> Kuwait.  (OK, we were partly responsible for SH being
> in power at that time; if you take that position, then
> I'd concede that the US bears some blame.)  Finishing
> a war is one thing; starting quite another.

I was referring to the earlier bombing of the Iraqi reactor by Israel,
probably with tacit US support.  Without it, Hussein would have invaded
Kuwait having already had a significant nuclear arsenal.  He was within a
year of getting enough plutonium for his first bomb when the Israelis bombed
the reactor.  Well, maybe he would have used the bomb against Tehran
earlier, that's always possible...but the point is that that bombing raid
probably saved a number of lives.

> 
> I understand your position better.  WRT a woman with
> poor mental health raising a child, and that child
> being neglected/abused: what do you think of the
> _Freakonomics_ position that crime is down since RvW
> b/c those aborted didn't enter a life of crime?  (I
> think it's an interesting observation, but unproven.)
> 
> > > "If one accepts" - From a medical standpoint, an
> > 8- or
> > > 15-week fetus is not an infant or a child.
> >
> > Medical categories are just that, categories.  Women
> > are different from men,
> > premature infants display less cognitive ability
> > than some grown non-human
> > primatesyet killing an infant is murder, just as
> > killing an adult is,
> > and just as killing an ape isn't.
> 
> Nor, under law, is aborting a 15-week fetus.

Nor is aborting a 8.5 month fetus as long as a hospital and physician can be
found for a go-ahead.  My sister said she knows personally of highly
questionable late term abortions where she's workedno indication of life
threatening illness to the mother at all.  From what she told me, before
birth, the only person that matters is the motherthe fetus is not human
until borneven thought it would be viable.

Now, I have a hunch you wouldn't agree with that.  But, then wouldn't it
make sense to have no legal late term abortions (where late term is after
viability) unless the mother's life is in danger.

You said no hospital would do that.  But, the fact that my sister worked at
a hospital that did does seem to contradict that.  
 
> > > Now _you_ are judging which life is more valuable
> > >than another.
> >
> > No, I'm judging that 5 million deaths is worse that
> > 500.
> 
> ?  Sorry, missing that?  Please clarify.

If a women died trying to abort in a back alley, that is certainly a human
death.  But, from the right-to-life movement's perspective, 500 deaths of
women attempting abortion must be weighted against the deaths of millions of
people when women can easily find abortions.  

Dan M. 



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Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread jdiebremse
--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], "Andrew Crystall" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> It was not an "error" to overthrow Saddam. Sure, your government
> lied to you about the reasons,

Which lies were these?

JDG




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Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread Charlie Bell


On 06/08/2006, at 3:19 AM, Dan Minette wrote:



Given the situation, I don't think there was a way to ratchet up  
pressure
from what it was.  The US was forward deployed and combat ready in  
a way

that it wasn't ready to sustain for a year.


Because of the way they ramped up. There was a UN weapons inspection  
program. Yes, Saddam was still playing games with the terms of the  
last UNSC resolution, but the US wasn't going to wait for the report  
from Hans Blix.



I think that the US could have
got a resolution at the UN that would allow for the imposition of  
smart
sanctions, but I think that, as the bribing of the French UN  
delegate shows,

that even smart sanctions would have workarounds.


I'm not talking about sanctions. I'm talking about a phased renewal.  
It was obvious in the first 24 hours that Saddam had zero response,  
the brave fighting talk of the legendary Iraqi Information Minister  
aside. The plan showed zero flexibility. Pause, regroup, and get the  
engineers into the southern towns reconnecting water and power asap.  
Make it better. Then move on.




I do agree, thought, that Hussein could have waited a couple of  
years, given
what we knew at the time.  We could have focused our effort on  
rebuilding

Afghanistan, pouring a good deal of money into that small country.


Also true, and something I was arguing strongly at the time.


The "Coalition" could have genuinely won the "hearts and minds" of  
the

Iraqis. There must have been better ways than what they chose.


There were.  And, the ironic part of it was that those better plans  
were
available to be used before the war.  The State Department, using  
their
expertise in development, had a well developed, realistic plan for  
post war
Iraq.  In addition, the present ambassador, who by all accounts is  
very

skilled at his job, was ready to step in and start things moving.

Unfortunately, Bush decided to go for the Cheney/Rumsfeld "plan"  
which was
nothing more than loosely sketched wishful thinking.  Day care  
managers who
had their resumes on the Heritage Foundation website ended up  
running the
Iraq economy, while the youngest project manager in the history of  
the JFK
school of government, who's experience was in international  
development in

Russia, had his application tabled for months on end.  He had the
application in, knowing full well that he might die as a result,  
but feeling
that success in Iraq was critical for the next 20 years.  He is, of  
course,

our own Gautam.

This is where I fault the administration.  To me, it has all the  
elements of

a true tragedy.  The quest, overturning a cruel dictator and bringing
democracy and prosperity to the Iraqi people, is heroic.  The quest is
betrayed by the hubris of the key players: the Bush  
administration.  As a

result, they do untold damage to their own cause.


And the biggest missed opportunity of all - where's the pressure on  
Mugabe, and the other African dictators? While the American military  
can't take any more on right now, the diplomatic corps ought to be  
sending strong messages to these tyrants - buck up or you're next.  
Not this year, maybe not next year, but your card is marked. It would  
be the single best bit of evidence that the Bush Administration is  
after democracy, not revenge or power games or oil.


Charlie
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Re: What be WMD, me hearties? Aaaaarrrrrrrrr!

2006-08-05 Thread Charlie Bell


On 06/08/2006, at 7:13 AM, Robert Seeberger wrote:



Modernized now.



Pop culture topicalised now...

Charlie
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Re: What be WMD, me hearties? Aaaaarrrrrrrrr!

2006-08-05 Thread Julia Thompson

Charlie Bell wrote:


On 06/08/2006, at 7:13 AM, Robert Seeberger wrote:



Modernized now.



Pop culture topicalised now...


It's always fun when pirates are in fashion.

Julia

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Re: Since planetary science has been ruled "on-topic" :)

2006-08-05 Thread Ronn!Blankenship

At 04:47 PM Saturday 8/5/2006, Dave Land wrote:

Fine, then.

If that's the case, I suppose that lunar orbital dynamics are not
entirely off topic,




Sorry 'bout that.  I forwarded the message from another list and 
forgot to change the subject line (which referred to a comment made 
in an earlier message on that list) . . .


My goof.




so you may enjoy reading about "3753 Cruithne",
Earth's "second moon",




It probably comes as no surprise that I am already familiar with that 
object and its unusual orbit.



-- Ronn!  :)

"Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot remain in the cradle forever."
-- Konstantin E. Tsiolkovskiy



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Re: Wealthy couples travel to U.S. to choose baby's sex

2006-08-05 Thread William T Goodall


On 5 Aug 2006, at 11:59PM, Dan Minette wrote:
If a women died trying to abort in a back alley, that is certainly  
a human
death.  But, from the right-to-life movement's perspective, 500  
deaths of
women attempting abortion must be weighted against the deaths of  
millions of

people when women can easily find abortions.



Isn't the real question about whether the state owns one's body or  
oneself? And how women's bodies are still seen as property in a  
patriarchal society? How does a state which permits and taxes the  
sale of carcinogenic tobacco products and does nothing about the  
obesity and diabetes causing products of the food industry have any  
legitimate interest in the intimate contents of a woman's own body?



--
William T Goodall
Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

And yes, OSX is marvelous. Its merest bootlace, Windows is not worthy  
to kiss. - David Brin


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RE: Wealthy couples travel to U.S. to choose baby's sex

2006-08-05 Thread Dan Minette


> -Original Message-
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of William T Goodall
> Sent: Saturday, August 05, 2006 8:01 PM
> To: Killer Bs Discussion
> Subject: Re: Wealthy couples travel to U.S. to choose baby's sex
> 
> 
> On 5 Aug 2006, at 11:59PM, Dan Minette wrote:
> > If a women died trying to abort in a back alley, that is certainly
> > a human
> > death.  But, from the right-to-life movement's perspective, 500
> > deaths of
> > women attempting abortion must be weighted against the deaths of
> > millions of
> > people when women can easily find abortions.
> >
> 
> Isn't the real question about whether the state owns one's body or
> oneself? And how women's bodies are still seen as property in a
> patriarchal society? How does a state which permits and taxes the
> sale of carcinogenic tobacco products and does nothing about the
> obesity and diabetes causing products of the food industry have any
> legitimate interest in the intimate contents of a woman's own body?

If it is a state that protects people not from themselves, but from other
people who wish to do them harm, then this can be inherently consistent
behavior. It depends on who we call people, and what we call things.

Dan M.


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Re: Wealthy couples travel to U.S. to choose baby's sex

2006-08-05 Thread Ronn!Blankenship

At 08:01 PM Saturday 8/5/2006, William T Goodall wrote:


On 5 Aug 2006, at 11:59PM, Dan Minette wrote:

If a women died trying to abort in a back alley, that is certainly
a human
death.  But, from the right-to-life movement's perspective, 500
deaths of
women attempting abortion must be weighted against the deaths of
millions of
people when women can easily find abortions.


Isn't the real question about whether the state owns one's body or
oneself?



There's a question?


-- Ronn!  :)

"Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot remain in the cradle forever."
-- Konstantin E. Tsiolkovskiy



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Re: Wealthy couples travel to U.S. to choose baby's sex

2006-08-05 Thread William T Goodall


On 6 Aug 2006, at 2:06AM, Dan Minette wrote:





-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:brin-l- 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] On

Behalf Of William T Goodall
Sent: Saturday, August 05, 2006 8:01 PM

Isn't the real question about whether the state owns one's body or
oneself? And how women's bodies are still seen as property in a
patriarchal society? How does a state which permits and taxes the
sale of carcinogenic tobacco products and does nothing about the
obesity and diabetes causing products of the food industry have any
legitimate interest in the intimate contents of a woman's own body?


If it is a state that protects people not from themselves, but from  
other
people who wish to do them harm, then this can be inherently  
consistent

behavior. It depends on who we call people, and what we call things.



It may be consistent but it is also absurd.

--
William T Goodall
Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence  
whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the  
silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more  
likely to be foolish than sensible."

- Bertrand Russell


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Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread jdiebremse
--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Charlie Bell <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> It is if you're replacing him with a vacuum. Saddam could have
> waited
> another 6 month or a year, with more and more pressure. The
> "Coalition" could have genuinely won the "hearts and minds" of the
> Iraqis. There must have been better ways than what they chose.

I completely disagree.   Prior to 9/11 the "containment" strategy
against Iraq was on the verge of falling apart.  Smuggling to Iraq
was rampant, and France, Russia, and China were becoming ever more
open about their desire to end to sanctions regime on Iraq
altogether.   Moreover, I think that 9/11 created a unique political
moment in the US, during which this country had reached the
conclusion that leaving failed states to fester, even in far corners
of the world, could pose a direct threat to the United States.  It
is my opinion, that this sentiment would have dissipated over time
as 9/11 faded into memory, just as the biological terrorism attacks
on the US in late 2001 have been nearly forgotten by most.   In
short, I believe that the post-9/11 world was a singular opportunity
to marshall political support for removing Saddam Hussein's Baathist
dictatorship and liberating Iraq.   I think that the Bush
Administration was faced with the choice of either seizing that
opportunity at that moment, or else forfeiting that opportunity for
the long term.


--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Charlie Bell <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Because of the way they ramped up. There was a UN weapons
> inspection program.

Was there a UN weapons inspection program on-the-ground in Iraq
before the US ramped up the pressure?


> > I think that the US could have
> > got a resolution at the UN that would allow for the imposition
of
> > smart
> > sanctions, but I think that, as the bribing of the French UN
> > delegate shows,
> > that even smart sanctions would have workarounds.
>
> I'm not talking about sanctions. I'm talking about a phased
> renewal.  It was obvious in the first 24 hours that Saddam had
> zero response,
> the brave fighting talk of the legendary Iraqi Information
> Minister   aside. The plan showed zero flexibility. Pause,
> regroup, and get the engineers into the southern towns
> reconnecting water and power asap.
> Make it better. Then move on.

This could have given Saddam the ability to burn the oilfields, blow
up dams, or engage in other scorched earth tactics.   It could also
have given him the opportunity to prepare the use of the WMD's which
we believed him to have.

> And the biggest missed opportunity of all - where's the pressure
> on Mugabe, and the other African dictators? While the American
> military  can't take any more on right now, the diplomatic corps
> ought to be sending strong messages to these tyrants - buck up or
> you're next.  Not this year, maybe not next year, but your card is
> marked. It would be the single best bit of evidence that the Bush
> Administration is after democracy, not revenge or power games or
> oil.

I suspect that a fair examination of the evidence would reveal that
the USA has been very outspoken against today's worst dicators in
the DPRK, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Burma, Iran, Syria, and Cuba.   I believe
that Secretary Rice has often referred to these countries
as "outposts of tyranny."   The US has also been a leader in the
crisis in Sudan.   While the US has not explicitly threatened to
occupy these countries, there is not currently political support in
the US for threatening the invasion of another country outside the
Middle East, nor do I expect that most of the other world's
democracies would welcome such rhetoric from the US.   Make no
mistake, however, the US has been very strong and very public in its
critiques of these countries.

JDG




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Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate

2006-08-05 Thread Charlie Bell


On 06/08/2006, at 12:33 PM, jdiebremse wrote:

  The US has also been a leader in the
crisis in Sudan.


:-o

I'm just going to have to withdraw from this thread.

Charlie
Different Realities Maru
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