Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
What a peculiar post. On Tue, Oct 14, 2008 at 7:17 AM, Will Evans [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote: I do respect the left coasts Caligula-like ability to party like there is no tomorrow! Ms. Wodke made a comment 2 weeks ago about SF/BayArea being ground zero for the internet - and for VC's and their cash - it seems true that investor money vaporizes faster than asphalt after an a-bomb blast :-) God bless u guys for keepin it real - we on the right coast haven't had that kind of fun since Razorfish days of '99 If you hire young people, they will act like young people sometimes. I think that's alright. The silicon valley is ground zero (or patient zero, depending on what apocalypsian metaphor you prefer) for internet and technology innovation in general. It requires a completely different approach than building a solid business in a known space. For example, restaurants are such an old business the TV show Kitchen Nightmares is formulaic in its approach to making them successful. Fresh ingredients+small menu+execution+interior decoration+marketing=success. New markets without clear formulas require expiramentation, including borrowing from proven successes that may or may not apply to the new field. No one knows what will succeeed until it does. Some bets are long bets, some bets are short bets (sorry to refer to this over and over again, but the gambling metaphor is a decent approximation for the VC approach) and right now it looks like short bets are a better selection. The advice given out as sequoia et al is good: raising money is going to be hard for the next five years. Try not to spend all you've got. Stretch it (which includes trying to make a bit as well as slowing hiring). Hunker down. As designers, we can help by being contributors to the conversation. What models haven't been tried? What do we know about user behavior in digital spaces that could be leveraged to produce more effective results? Is your company in growth mode, usage mode, revenue mode, a combo? When a customer arrives on your site, what do they have to accomplish to make both them and the business successful? Business goals (and sometimes models) are as important as user goals, yet many designer seem to think meeting those goals is someone else's problem to solve. That results in bizarre arguments with business, marketing and product where each side is convinced the other is clueless. But with understanding comes insight, better design and more effective communication. I'm pained by conversations that dismiss approaches without trying to understand them, as it perpetuates the self-imposed ignorance that way too many designers seem to enjoy. First seek to understand, then to improve. Perhaps, with luck, to even innovate. Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
At a very simple level, we should perceive ourselves as investors of our own time energy. If you value your craftworthyness would you invest that in something you dont understand? Having a business model will come back in to fashion with a resounding bump. Designers should treat their careers like a retirement fund. Understand what you're investing in, understand and manage the risk/ROI. Business goals (and sometimes models) are as important as user goals, yet many designer seem to think meeting those goals is someone else's problem to solve. Well said Christina. Unrelated: what are the odds on Twitter surviving this? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Posted from the new ixda.org http://www.ixda.org/discuss?post=34117 Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
This is an interesting discussion on a pure play internet company, and it smells a lot like 2000 in San Francisco. Facebook, as an offering, is imminently repeatable by competitors, with their strongest advantages being a virtuous circle of: 1. They have critical mass 2. They have 0 cost barriers to entry, (don't charge anything). Changing advantage #2.- charging users in a way that would generate reasonable P/E ratios for a multi-billion dollar company, would almost instantly remove advantage #1. Maybe Facebook needs to get real, and admit its best business model most probably is as an advertising based site worth a respectable $100 to 500 million, (of course they can spend 100% of investor's cash to come to this conclusion, when did we last see that happen? ...). Internet companies are young in concept and inception, but not that young any more. It's good for us and Internet Companies to have grownup business models, with respectable valuations based on real profits. Our field offers real value, we don't need the Facebook hype of a 5 to 20 billion dollar co., and in fact I think it lowers our value as a whole. We're in a down swinging market, (factorially larger then the dot com crash). As in all bubbles it was based in faith of the ever growing pie. Capital markets are changing in a generational fashion right now. I'll bet money that realism, and the display of real value, is going to be a very strong message for a very long time. Conversely gambling will probably be more of a sideshow. On Sat, Oct 11, 2008 at 12:24 PM, Jared Spool [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 1) either you keep your internal costs lower than all your competitors, so that your margins are always naturally higher, or 2) you keep your quality high enough that you can charge premium prices to keep your margins higher than your competitor. -- Joseph Rich Rogan President UX/UI Inc. http://www.jrrogan.com Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
I do respect the left coasts Caligula-like ability to party like there is no tomorrow! Ms. Wodke made a comment 2 weeks ago about SF/BayArea being ground zero for the internet - and for VC's and their cash - it seems true that investor money vaporizes faster than asphalt after an a-bomb blast :-) God bless u guys for keepin it real - we on the right coast haven't had that kind of fun since Razorfish days of '99 On Tue, Oct 14, 2008 at 10:06 AM, Rich Rogan [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: This is an interesting discussion on a pure play internet company, and it smells a lot like 2000 in San Francisco. Facebook, as an offering, is imminently repeatable by competitors, with their strongest advantages being a virtuous circle of: 1. They have critical mass 2. They have 0 cost barriers to entry, (don't charge anything). Changing advantage #2.- charging users in a way that would generate reasonable P/E ratios for a multi-billion dollar company, would almost instantly remove advantage #1. Maybe Facebook needs to get real, and admit its best business model most probably is as an advertising based site worth a respectable $100 to 500 million, (of course they can spend 100% of investor's cash to come to this conclusion, when did we last see that happen? ...). Internet companies are young in concept and inception, but not that young any more. It's good for us and Internet Companies to have grownup business models, with respectable valuations based on real profits. Our field offers real value, we don't need the Facebook hype of a 5 to 20 billion dollar co., and in fact I think it lowers our value as a whole. We're in a down swinging market, (factorially larger then the dot com crash). As in all bubbles it was based in faith of the ever growing pie. Capital markets are changing in a generational fashion right now. I'll bet money that realism, and the display of real value, is going to be a very strong message for a very long time. Conversely gambling will probably be more of a sideshow. On Sat, Oct 11, 2008 at 12:24 PM, Jared Spool [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 1) either you keep your internal costs lower than all your competitors, so that your margins are always naturally higher, or 2) you keep your quality high enough that you can charge premium prices to keep your margins higher than your competitor. -- Joseph Rich Rogan President UX/UI Inc. http://www.jrrogan.com Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help -- ~ will Where you innovate, how you innovate, and what you innovate are design problems - Will Evans | User Experience Architect tel: +1.617.281.1281 | [EMAIL PROTECTED] aim: semanticwill | gtalk: wkevans4 twitter: semanticwill | skype: semanticwill - Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
Jared - Maybe if Facebook folks weren't hammered in Cyprus - they might have a business plan already :-) http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/team-cyprus-move-to-undo-the-video/ On Sat, Oct 11, 2008 at 5:05 PM, Josh Seiden [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hey folks, Just a reminder here to please refrain from personal attacks in our discussions. This is a fascinating topic, and there is plenty of room to discuss it--and to disagree--without having to diminish one another. Thanks, JS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Posted from the new ixda.org http://www.ixda.org/discuss?post=34117 Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help -- ~ will Where you innovate, how you innovate, and what you innovate are design problems - Will Evans | User Experience Architect tel: +1.617.281.1281 | [EMAIL PROTECTED] aim: semanticwill | gtalk: wkevans4 twitter: semanticwill | skype: semanticwill - Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On Oct 11, 2008, at 12:05 AM, Kontra wrote: We don't live in a theocracy where *you* get to judge whether legally accrued profits are to your liking or if a buyer of a company is allowed to see value in it that you can't. *I* believe *I* do. (And Eric's right. You probably meant meritocracy.) Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
I hope everyone has read this article http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/16-03/ff_free?currentPage=all it has a great list of potential ways a free service can generate revenue. Or for the digest version, Armano's visualization http://darmano.typepad.com/logic_emotion/2008/10/the-4-kinds-of.html It's perfectly reasonable for a startup to consider getting usage first before having a solid business model. As Andreensen says, distribution is your biggest challenge. Then again, Reid Hoffman emphasizes funding strategy. If you have a good funding strategy, you have time to solve both the distribution and revenue challenges. It depends (to quote circa 1997 Jared Spool) also on the market you are in. In an enterprise market (B2B) its useful to take a Four Steps to the Epiphany approach, where you test your business strategy with your potnetial customers from day one. But in the consumer internet businesss, especially advertising based, overempahsis on business model will often result in making decisions that limit usage and growth in exchange for early profitability. Morover, in new categories, like social networks, there is no accepted model for profitability so it's difficult to know what will succeed. You could easily argue that while search existed for many years, it only found its business model when overture invented the auction-based keyword bidding approach. If I were Zuckerberg, I wouldn't put a timetable on finding a business model. There are a number of them that might work and I assume they'll try them all. They've got enough money they have bought themselves time to tune. Smart. But it's hard to say if they'll find a breakout approach in three months or three years. It's like saying I'm sure I'll have a cure for baldness in three years... we didn't think there was a real viable solution to that one until suddenly there was. I think it quite likely Facebook won't find a business model that will make them massively profitable google-style, and they'll keep bebopping along with minor profits. Unless, of course, they do. And if they do trip over the right approach, they are poised to maximize it because they have the userbase in place. On Fri, Oct 10, 2008 at 11:55 PM, Jared Spool [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Oct 11, 2008, at 12:05 AM, Kontra wrote: We don't live in a theocracy where *you* get to judge whether legally accrued profits are to your liking or if a buyer of a company is allowed to see value in it that you can't. *I* believe *I* do. (And Eric's right. You probably meant meritocracy.) Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On Oct 11, 2008, at 10:20 AM, Christina Wodtke wrote: If I were Zuckerberg, I wouldn't put a timetable on finding a business model. There are a number of them that might work and I assume they'll try them all. They've got enough money they have bought themselves time to tune. Smart. The timetable puzzled me too. If you don't know what your business plan is, how can you know how long it will take to figure out what it will be? They *do* have enough money, but that money came at a price. Zuckerberg, et al aren't running a charity. Those investors are expecting a return. Many of those investors have shareholders themselves, who are also expecting a return. What did Zuckerberg promise them in terms of value and schedule? That's the really puzzling thing. Did they buy in on pure hope? I think it quite likely Facebook won't find a business model that will make them massively profitable google- style, and they'll keep bebopping along with minor profits. Unless, of course, they do. And if they do trip over the right approach, they are poised to maximize it because they have the userbase in place. Do you think that's how they pitched it to their investors? We think it's quite likely we'll never have a business model that gives you the 10x returns you're looking for, but if luck has it, we just might stumble across one. Then, boy, won't *you* look really smart?!!? And here's my take. It's not like Facebook is flying under the radar here. EVERYBODY is focused on every little thing they do. The smartest business people in the world are thinking and talking about them. And none of them have come up with a viable business plan yet. If they can't come up with one, why do people think that folks within the Zuckerberg empire can? That's the gamble that I'm just not getting. I'm probably wrong (or, as some have pointed out, living in my own theocracy). In 2 years and 10 months, the Zuckerberg team will announce to the world a new strategy that will make them all trillionnaires. And I'll be here, running my little business as I have for 20 years, wondering how come I'm not cashing in on the big bucks. Who wants to bet on that? Jared p.s. The original point to this entire conversation on this list is, in the meantime, what do the newly-hired UX people at Facebook do to ensure that every design decision supports the wont-exit-for-three- years business model? http://is.gd/3djk Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On Oct 10, 2008, at 1:43 PM, Andrei Herasimchuk wrote: So... I have to wonder out loud: Why not just charge $9/month for a Facebook account? I know that's so 1992 with an that oh-so-dated America Online model, but hey... At some point, we'll all finally get past the silly notion that stuff should always be free. Advertising can only support so many businesses in this space. I think it's because they haven't built anything that gives them protection against someone else just duplicating it and putting it back up for less. In business, there's only two long-term ways to generate higher profits than your competitors: 1) either you keep your internal costs lower than all your competitors, so that your margins are always naturally higher, or 2) you keep your quality high enough that you can charge premium prices to keep your margins higher than your competitor. Most of Facebook's costs to date have been in RD. However, they are almost 100% transparent in how they work. So, that means that a competitor can produce an equivalent product without the same RD effort, but just copying what FB has done. Facebook has locked up the market now because social networks require that you're connected to everyone you want to be connected to. Moving to a new social network has a high cost. However, that high cost may be worth it if staying has a higher cost, like having to make a monthly payment to keep the connections available. Then, the motivation to move to a free network becomes substantially higher. What can FB offer for the monthly fee that would prevent that? That's how I see FB is locked into free service and has to now invest in originating a business model that (a) produces the 10x returns on the $500m investments they've received and (b) isn't easily copied by competitors who can build it out at 1/100th the cost FB has invested. Jared Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On Sat, Oct 11, 2008 at 9:15 AM, Jared Spool [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Do you think that's how they pitched it to their investors? We think it's quite likely we'll never have a business model that gives you the 10x returns you're looking for, but if luck has it, we just might stumble across one. Then, boy, won't *you* look really smart?!!? I don't know about facebook, but I know metaweb said We know this is big. We know someone will do it successfully. We don't know if we can do it. We don't know how it'll make money. We suspect if it is big, we'll figure out a way to make lots of money and they got a lot of dough to start trying. Of course, they had made it big with Tellme, so had proven they were good at doing ridiculously hard things. Venture capital is not like other kinds of money. They bet on a lot of different highly unlikely things. All their bets are on weird and unknown aproaches. They bet smart people will figure things out. They bet that if even one of their 50+ investments makes it big, they will make crazy piles of money. They don't work like the businesses you work with. They work like professional gamblers. Innovation and optimization require very different approaches. p.s. The original point to this entire conversation on this list is, in the meantime, what do the newly-hired UX people at Facebook do to ensure that every design decision supports the wont-exit-for-three-years business model? http://is.gd/3djk If the folks at Facebook are smart, the newly hired people are working on the company's goals, which may not include making money. They are working on increasing visits, working on improving lock-in, working on broading the usage base A great designers knows what the company's goals are, and works on designs that move toward that goal (which may or may not be reflected in the press.) Great leadership in a business makes sure everyone knows what the comapany's goals are. Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On Oct 11, 2008, at 12:52 PM, Christina Wodtke wrote: Venture capital is not like other kinds of money. They bet on a lot of different highly unlikely things. All their bets are on weird and unknown aproaches. They bet smart people will figure things out. They bet that if even one of their 50+ investments makes it big, they will make crazy piles of money. They don't work like the businesses you work with. They work like professional gamblers. Innovation and optimization require very different approaches. Ok. that makes sense on some level. I can't say I've ever understood VCs that well. They are from a different world than the one I hang around it. (We tend not to have VC funded companies as clients. Our folks are more meat-and-potatoes it's- always-clear-what-the-biz-model-is types.) So, I'll take it on faith that they somehow know how this will play out (or are betting that someone will in time). Jared Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
So, I'll take it on faith that they somehow know how this will play out (or are betting that someone will in time). Yep. you got it. I live on the other side of the looking glass. it's nice here, if you like oysters and turtle soup. Now let's discuss eyetracking... ;) Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On Oct 11, 2008, at 1:56 PM, Christina Wodtke wrote: So, I'll take it on faith that they somehow know how this will play out (or are betting that someone will in time). Yep. you got it. I live on the other side of the looking glass. it's nice here, if you like oysters and turtle soup. Now let's discuss eyetracking... ;) Sure. Right after I finish this episode of Ghost Hunters. Jared Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
I'm somewhat more on the side of seeing the value in Facebook, but you just said people can't judge if something is to their own liking? You're beautiful. Scott On Sat, Oct 11, 2008 at 12:05 AM, Kontra [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: We don't live in a theocracy where *you* get to judge whether legally accrued profits are to your liking or if a buyer of a company is allowed to see value in it that you can't. Stick to the facts: profits =! valuation. -- The future is unwritten. - Joe Strummer Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
Hey folks, Just a reminder here to please refrain from personal attacks in our discussions. This is a fascinating topic, and there is plenty of room to discuss it--and to disagree--without having to diminish one another. Thanks, JS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Posted from the new ixda.org http://www.ixda.org/discuss?post=34117 Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On Oct 9, 2008, at 5:27 PM, Jared Spool wrote: What I've been praying for, to learn what Facebook's business plan is, will be finally answered! In 3 years, once Mark Zuckerberg figures it out. http://is.gd/3MSY So... I have to wonder out loud: Why not just charge $9/month for a Facebook account? I know that's so 1992 with an that oh-so-dated America Online model, but hey... At some point, we'll all finally get past the silly notion that stuff should always be free. Advertising can only support so many businesses in this space. Sure, they'd piss people off (too bad, I say) and lose a bunch in the process. But if they retained only 25% of a user base of around 50M that are willing to pay $9/month or $99/year, that's 12.5M users, and a yearly revenue of something like $1.2B a year. The question is more would they be able to keep 10M to 12M people paying $9 a month, I think. Blizzard has around that for World of Warcraft paying $15 a month, and it's just a game. I think Facebook would be able to pull it off. If Facebook or Google started charging for accounts (Google then gets money for its applications like Docs, Spreadsheets and such), it would open the door for everyone in the software business to get back to having real business models that aren't built out of straw during a fire season waiting for it all to go up in smoke at a moment's notice. -- Andrei Herasimchuk Principal, Involution Studios innovating the digital world e. [EMAIL PROTECTED] c. +1 408 306 6422 Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
I don't disagree with you Andrei - I think some people would value it - between $3 and $12/month. Its currently free - and I see 0 value in (hence my page is so dead), but some - like DaveM, do value it, and might even be willing to pay for the privilege of being super-poked. On Fri, Oct 10, 2008 at 1:43 PM, Andrei Herasimchuk [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Oct 9, 2008, at 5:27 PM, Jared Spool wrote: What I've been praying for, to learn what Facebook's business plan is, will be finally answered! In 3 years, once Mark Zuckerberg figures it out. http://is.gd/3MSY So... I have to wonder out loud: Why not just charge $9/month for a Facebook account? I know that's so 1992 with an that oh-so-dated America Online model, but hey... At some point, we'll all finally get past the silly notion that stuff should always be free. Advertising can only support so many businesses in this space. Sure, they'd piss people off (too bad, I say) and lose a bunch in the process. But if they retained only 25% of a user base of around 50M that are willing to pay $9/month or $99/year, that's 12.5M users, and a yearly revenue of something like $1.2B a year. The question is more would they be able to keep 10M to 12M people paying $9 a month, I think. Blizzard has around that for World of Warcraft paying $15 a month, and it's just a game. I think Facebook would be able to pull it off. If Facebook or Google started charging for accounts (Google then gets money for its applications like Docs, Spreadsheets and such), it would open the door for everyone in the software business to get back to having real business models that aren't built out of straw during a fire season waiting for it all to go up in smoke at a moment's notice. Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
3 years is probably how long it will take for people to have enough personal data and other investment in the system to consider paying $9 a month for it. plus by then they'll be sure their competitors have given up, assuming facebook still exists. :-) personally, I think facebook is the digital equivalent of the leisure suit. MT On Oct 10, 2008, at 1:43 PM, Andrei Herasimchuk wrote: On Oct 9, 2008, at 5:27 PM, Jared Spool wrote: What I've been praying for, to learn what Facebook's business plan is, will be finally answered! In 3 years, once Mark Zuckerberg figures it out. http://is.gd/3MSY So... I have to wonder out loud: Why not just charge $9/month for a Facebook account? I know that's so 1992 with an that oh-so-dated America Online model, but hey... At some point, we'll all finally get past the silly notion that stuff should always be free. Advertising can only support so many businesses in this space. Sure, they'd piss people off (too bad, I say) and lose a bunch in the process. But if they retained only 25% of a user base of around 50M that are willing to pay $9/month or $99/year, that's 12.5M users, and a yearly revenue of something like $1.2B a year. The question is more would they be able to keep 10M to 12M people paying $9 a month, I think. Blizzard has around that for World of Warcraft paying $15 a month, and it's just a game. I think Facebook would be able to pull it off. If Facebook or Google started charging for accounts (Google then gets money for its applications like Docs, Spreadsheets and such), it would open the door for everyone in the software business to get back to having real business models that aren't built out of straw during a fire season waiting for it all to go up in smoke at a moment's notice. -- Andrei Herasimchuk Principal, Involution Studios innovating the digital world e. [EMAIL PROTECTED] c. +1 408 306 6422 Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
to echo/amplify MTs point - in three years facebook could be friendster or yahoo 360 - in which case it won't matter - a dead mule needs no business plan. On Fri, Oct 10, 2008 at 2:00 PM, Michael Tuminello [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: 3 years is probably how long it will take for people to have enough personal data and other investment in the system to consider paying $9 a month for it. plus by then they'll be sure their competitors have given up, assuming facebook still exists. :-) personally, I think facebook is the digital equivalent of the leisure suit. MT On Oct 10, 2008, at 1:43 PM, Andrei Herasimchuk wrote: On Oct 9, 2008, at 5:27 PM, Jared Spool wrote: What I've been praying for, to learn what Facebook's business plan is, will be finally answered! In 3 years, once Mark Zuckerberg figures it out. http://is.gd/3MSY So... I have to wonder out loud: Why not just charge $9/month for a Facebook account? I know that's so 1992 with an that oh-so-dated America Online model, but hey... At some point, we'll all finally get past the silly notion that stuff should always be free. Advertising can only support so many businesses in this space. Sure, they'd piss people off (too bad, I say) and lose a bunch in the process. But if they retained only 25% of a user base of around 50M that are willing to pay $9/month or $99/year, that's 12.5M users, and a yearly revenue of something like $1.2B a year. The question is more would they be able to keep 10M to 12M people paying $9 a month, I think. Blizzard has around that for World of Warcraft paying $15 a month, and it's just a game. I think Facebook would be able to pull it off. If Facebook or Google started charging for accounts (Google then gets money for its applications like Docs, Spreadsheets and such), it would open the door for everyone in the software business to get back to having real business models that aren't built out of straw during a fire season waiting for it all to go up in smoke at a moment's notice. -- Andrei Herasimchuk Principal, Involution Studios innovating the digital world e. [EMAIL PROTECTED] c. +1 408 306 6422 Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help -- ~ will Where you innovate, how you innovate, and what you innovate are design problems - Will Evans | User Experience Architect tel: +1.617.281.1281 | [EMAIL PROTECTED] aim: semanticwill | gtalk: wkevans4 twitter: semanticwill | skype: semanticwill - Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
It's to late for the pay for service model. If that was the direction they wanted to go in, it should have been implemented in mid growth stage prior to maturity, when the delta was steep. Instead, they were betting (I am assuming) on some magic pie-in-the-sky startup evaluation that never materialized (well, except for MS). Monetizing early caps your potential worth to logical and realistic measures. Wouldn't want that in the silicon magic venture valley. Now that most of the features have been realized and are available for free, and the growth delta is decreasing, and people are unlikely to pony up. They gambled and they lost that round. That does not mean they will walk away with nothing... but it won't likely break any records. Timing is critical and bankable fortune telling is rare. Mark On Fri, Oct 10, 2008 at 1:49 PM, Will Evans [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I don't disagree with you Andrei - I think some people would value it - between $3 and $12/month. Its currently free - and I see 0 value in (hence my page is so dead), but some - like DaveM, do value it, and might even be willing to pay for the privilege of being super-poked. On Fri, Oct 10, 2008 at 1:43 PM, Andrei Herasimchuk [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Oct 9, 2008, at 5:27 PM, Jared Spool wrote: What I've been praying for, to learn what Facebook's business plan is, will be finally answered! In 3 years, once Mark Zuckerberg figures it out. http://is.gd/3MSY So... I have to wonder out loud: Why not just charge $9/month for a Facebook account? I know that's so 1992 with an that oh-so-dated America Online model, but hey... At some point, we'll all finally get past the silly notion that stuff should always be free. Advertising can only support so many businesses in this space. Sure, they'd piss people off (too bad, I say) and lose a bunch in the process. But if they retained only 25% of a user base of around 50M that are willing to pay $9/month or $99/year, that's 12.5M users, and a yearly revenue of something like $1.2B a year. The question is more would they be able to keep 10M to 12M people paying $9 a month, I think. Blizzard has around that for World of Warcraft paying $15 a month, and it's just a game. I think Facebook would be able to pull it off. If Facebook or Google started charging for accounts (Google then gets money for its applications like Docs, Spreadsheets and such), it would open the door for everyone in the software business to get back to having real business models that aren't built out of straw during a fire season waiting for it all to go up in smoke at a moment's notice. Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
The major draw of Facebook is ubquity -- everyone you know from high school, college, maybe even the office has a profile. Charging for Facebook would drive away large swaths of users, and I predict that would have a negative snowballing effect: what's the use if only a small (and decreasing) portion of the people I know use it? Compare with Classmates.com -- you have to pay for their useful features, and hardly anyone I know uses it beyond a curious/casual initial sign-up. -Jonathan On Fri, Oct 10, 2008 at 2:08 PM, mark schraad [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: It's to late for the pay for service model. If that was the direction they wanted to go in, it should have been implemented in mid growth stage prior to maturity, when the delta was steep. Instead, they were betting (I am assuming) on some magic pie-in-the-sky startup evaluation that never materialized (well, except for MS). Monetizing early caps your potential worth to logical and realistic measures. Wouldn't want that in the silicon magic venture valley. Now that most of the features have been realized and are available for free, and the growth delta is decreasing, and people are unlikely to pony up. They gambled and they lost that round. That does not mean they will walk away with nothing... but it won't likely break any records. Timing is critical and bankable fortune telling is rare. Mark On Fri, Oct 10, 2008 at 1:49 PM, Will Evans [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I don't disagree with you Andrei - I think some people would value it - between $3 and $12/month. Its currently free - and I see 0 value in (hence my page is so dead), but some - like DaveM, do value it, and might even be willing to pay for the privilege of being super-poked. On Fri, Oct 10, 2008 at 1:43 PM, Andrei Herasimchuk [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Oct 9, 2008, at 5:27 PM, Jared Spool wrote: What I've been praying for, to learn what Facebook's business plan is, will be finally answered! In 3 years, once Mark Zuckerberg figures it out. http://is.gd/3MSY So... I have to wonder out loud: Why not just charge $9/month for a Facebook account? I know that's so 1992 with an that oh-so-dated America Online model, but hey... At some point, we'll all finally get past the silly notion that stuff should always be free. Advertising can only support so many businesses in this space. Sure, they'd piss people off (too bad, I say) and lose a bunch in the process. But if they retained only 25% of a user base of around 50M that are willing to pay $9/month or $99/year, that's 12.5M users, and a yearly revenue of something like $1.2B a year. The question is more would they be able to keep 10M to 12M people paying $9 a month, I think. Blizzard has around that for World of Warcraft paying $15 a month, and it's just a game. I think Facebook would be able to pull it off. If Facebook or Google started charging for accounts (Google then gets money for its applications like Docs, Spreadsheets and such), it would open the door for everyone in the software business to get back to having real business models that aren't built out of straw during a fire season waiting for it all to go up in smoke at a moment's notice. Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
It might be interesting to see some innovation in the subscription model for web sites, as (maybe it's just me) folks can only take so many $10-$20 hits to their wallet every month. I have a tough enough time shelling out $60 for a cell phone... On the other hand, cloud computing is making a lot of headway with pay only for what you use pricing at VERY easy-to-swallow rates. Who can argue 15 cents a GB and a penny for a thousand hits on Amazon S3 (don't remember the exact #s, but that's not far off). Taking a lead from iTunes, they might consider small incremental 'fees' for important things that their power users do - contacting more than 10 friends at once, pushing/pulling data via their API, vendor profiles, etc. There are more than 2 ways to make money...could be they just haven't thought hard enough about it. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Posted from the new ixda.org http://www.ixda.org/discuss?post=34117 Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
If you wanted to figure out the size of the actual market for facebook (as it is today), I'd say find out what percentage of the population keeps their high school yearbooks, and looks through them periodically. The similar problem with facebook to yearbooks is that it encourages people to put in data they are not going to want to see later on. I predict it will go away, but be very nostalgic, like the atari 2600. tshirts featuring facebookisms will be hysterical for 6 months in 2023. what would be awesomely ironic would be if an ailing latter-day facebook made the last of its money issuing yearbook-like printed books of users' old accounts. On Oct 10, 2008, at 2:15 PM, Jonathan Abbett wrote: The major draw of Facebook is ubquity -- everyone you know from high school, college, maybe even the office has a profile. Charging for Facebook would drive away large swaths of users, and I predict that would have a negative snowballing effect: what's the use if only a small (and decreasing) portion of the people I know use it? Compare with Classmates.com -- you have to pay for their useful features, and hardly anyone I know uses it beyond a curious/casual initial sign-up. -Jonathan Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
Jonathan Abbett wrote: The major draw of Facebook is ubquity -- everyone you know from high school, college, maybe even the office has a profile. Charging for Facebook would drive away large swaths of users... Hmmm... Napster. -- [iTunes+iPod] + bittorrent + [Napster+fee] -- Oleh Kovalchuke Interaction Design is design of time http://www.tangospring.com/IxDtopicWhatIsInteractionDesign.htm Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
Andrei 2008/10/11 Andrei Herasimchuk [EMAIL PROTECTED] Blizzard has around that for World of Warcraft paying $15 a month, and it's just a game. I think Facebook would be able to pull it off. In the context of this discussion WoW is more that 'just a game'. There is a very deep and extensive social dimension to most of the massively multi-player online role-playing games (MMORPG) and that forms a very large part of their draw. Those millions ponying up $15/month to play WoW aren't doing it just so they can swing a sword or ride a griffon (i.e. the 'game' part); the social computing element is enormously important. Steve Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
If you're counting, three years from now would be nearly 7 years since Mark (and others) started Facebook at Harvard, and four years since Microsoft plowed $240 million into the company. So what? Google made its first $100MM profit 5 years after and went public 6 years after its incorporation in 1998. Its meteoric rise really started in mid-'05, nearly 8 years after they cashed Andy Bechtolsheim's check for $100K that started it all. AdSense, for example, came in company's 5th year. (And Google happens to be an exceptional case of a web company with such a rapid rate of growth and subsequent ability to persist. Most others fare much worse.) Whether it's worth as low as $3 billion or as high as $15 billion, now or in three years, what Zuckerberg has achieved in wealth creation would be immensely higher than anybody else's record on this list, including you, wouldn't you say? -- Kontra http://counternotions.com Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
I managed to send my reply just to Andrei - sorry Andrei - not this list. Newbie alert! I agree that paying for content and services is one way out of this. But how likely is it that Facebook will start charging when there's countless other social networks that are willing to offer as much for free? In the UK Friends Reunited used to rule the roost, but its subscription model caused uniques to go through the floor when MySpace and Facebook turned up. OK, their downfall was partly to do with the quality of the offering, but the couple of quid a month played a big part. Friends Reunited recently switched to an ad funded model and traffic is on the rise again. I managed to prove at a previous site that paid for content could work. We were a respected brand, the service was pretty much unique (some imitators but nowhere near as good) and the products were easy to buy via microcharging on mobiles, PayPal, credit cards etc. I'm surprised so few content providers have tried this. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Posted from the new ixda.org http://www.ixda.org/discuss?post=34117 Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
Yes Kontra, we all get that you are totally impressed that they generated some funding. But in the real world we look for proof that they can make money. We call this revenue and accountants (and share holders) are interested in extrapolating from that revenue some indication of profit. Further, that they generated funding 'indicates' the potential worth of the remaining stock, but until someone actually 'pays' for that stock... it is merely speculative worth. Understanding the difference in these concepts will serve you well as both a designer and a business person. On Oct 9, 2008, at 9:36 PM, Kontra wrote: If you're counting, three years from now would be nearly 7 years since Mark (and others) started Facebook at Harvard, and four years since Microsoft plowed $240 million into the company. So what? Google made its first $100MM profit 5 years after and went public 6 years after its incorporation in 1998. Its meteoric rise really started in mid-'05, nearly 8 years after they cashed Andy Bechtolsheim's check for $100K that started it all. AdSense, for example, came in company's 5th year. (And Google happens to be an exceptional case of a web company with such a rapid rate of growth and subsequent ability to persist. Most others fare much worse.) Whether it's worth as low as $3 billion or as high as $15 billion, now or in three years, what Zuckerberg has achieved in wealth creation would be immensely higher than anybody else's record on this list, including you, wouldn't you say? -- Kontra http://counternotions.com Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On 11/10/08 4:43 AM, Andrei Herasimchuk [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Blizzard has around that for World of Warcraft paying $15 a month, and it's just a game. I think Facebook would be able to pull it off. Firstly, about 6 million of that 10 million are in asia/china, where they pay on an hourly basis at a much reduced rate. Secondly, the game is one huge skinner box, designed to be incredibly addictive. e. Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
But if Facebook ends up being something less than that -- say, a big and popular Website, but not a world-changing business that throws off billions a dollars a year and disrupts multiple industries -- then Mark's backers may end up wondering why they didn't push him to figure that sooner than later. Now, the success of a company is measured against Google? What kind of nonsense is that? Gary Dahl (http://tinyurl.com/4jatmh) made more money than me too. That doesn't make me envious of the pet rock industry. Why does anybody else have to care about what industries you happen to like or not? As long as Gary Dahl and his shareholders are happy, who are you to complain? We don't live in a theocracy where *you* get to judge whether legally accrued profits are to your liking or if a buyer of a company is allowed to see value in it that you can't. Stick to the facts: profits =! valuation. -- Kontra http://counternotions.com Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
On 11/10/08 3:05 PM, Kontra [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: We don't live in a theocracy where *you* get to judge whether legally accrued profits are to your liking or if a buyer of a company is allowed to see value in it that you can't. that would be a meritocracy, not a theocracy, I'm sure. e. Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
Re: [IxDA Discuss] Finally! My Prayers Will Be Answered. In 3 years.
Jared, One of the interesting aspects of Facebook's business-model-in-training is the work they're doing on targeting - highly-focused advertising based on the individual's stated interests, as compared to Google's inferential model based on search terms or email content. We're yet to see how successful Facebook will be in their implementation of this functionality, particularly with respect to intelligently mining a person's profile, but it's an interesting and unique approach to the challenge of delivering value to advertisers. Steve 2008/10/10 Jared Spool [EMAIL PROTECTED] What I've been praying for, to learn what Facebook's business plan is, will be finally answered! In 3 years, once Mark Zuckerberg figures it out. http://is.gd/3MSY Silicon Alley Insider: Zuckerberg: Facebook Will Have A Business Plan In Three Years If you've had a nagging suspicion that Mark Zuckerberg really doesn't know how he'll turn Facebook into a business, wonder no more. You're right. Here he is talking to German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: 'What every great internet company has done is to figure out a way to make money that has to match to what they are doing on the site. I don't think social networks can be monetized in the same way that search did. But on both sites people find information valuable. I'm pretty sure that we will find an analogous business model. But we are experimenting already. One group is very focused on targeting; another part is focused on social recommendation from your friends. In three years from now we have to figure out what the optimum model is. But that is not our primary focus today.' If you're counting, three years from now would be nearly 7 years since Mark (and others) started Facebook at Harvard, and four years since Microsoft plowed $240 million into the company. Welcome to the Interaction Design Association (IxDA)! To post to this list ... [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe http://www.ixda.org/unsubscribe List Guidelines http://www.ixda.org/guidelines List Help .. http://www.ixda.org/help
