subject:"\[FRIAM\] Hope\?"

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-08 Thread Merle Lefkoff

We're all implicated, Owen.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:37 PM, Owen Densmore  wrote:

> On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:11 PM, Roger Critchlow  wrote:
>
>> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/blamin
>> g-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis
>>
>> -- rec --
>>
>
> Amen!
>
> Democracy may or may not be drowning in fake news, but it’s definitely
> drowning in elite hypocrisy.
>
>
> I
>  hope we're able to escape that ourselves. I'm concerned that we too are
> "smug liberals". I hope I can invite my garbage collector to my next party
> as Pope Francis did.
>
>-- Owen
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>



-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelef...@gmail.com
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-08 Thread Owen Densmore

Interesting! The Pogo cartoon and saying is a family staple.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 11:21 PM, Nick Thompson 
wrote:

> Hey, Owen,
>
>
>
> When I was 32 or so, I ran for the post of Planning Board Chair for the
> Town of New Braintree.  I was young and very idealistic about participatory
> democracy, and so I set as my goal to visit every house in Town to talk
> about the future of the Town, which was just small enough that that goal
> was plausible.   Like every small New England town, New  Braintree it was
> riven with factionalism and anger.  However, my hosts agreed upon one thing
> for sure:  “they” were responsible for all that was wrong with the Town.
> Thing was, I never found out who “they” was.  I never even found a “We.”
> Political unity existed only in the mind of those who saw themselves the
> victims of it.
>
>
>
> It was about that year that the this cartoon appeared.
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Owen
> Densmore
> *Sent:* Saturday, January 07, 2017 10:09 PM
>
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair
>
>
>
> All those who were outside the set of those hurt by their decisions.
>
>
>
> On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:50 PM, Nick Thompson 
> wrote:
>
> O
>
>
>
> And who, exactly, is this “elite” of whom we speak with such assurance and
> contempt?
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Owen
> Densmore
> *Sent:* Saturday, January 07, 2017 9:38 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair
>
>
>
> On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:11 PM, Roger Critchlow  wrote:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/
> blaming-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis
>
>
>
> -- rec --
>
>
>
> Amen!
>
>
>
> Democracy may or may not be drowning in fake news, but it’s definitely
> drowning in elite hypocrisy.
>
>
>
> I
>
>  hope we're able to escape that ourselves. I'm concerned that we too are
> "smug liberals". I hope I can invite my garbage collector to my next party
> as Pope Francis did.
>
>
>
>-- Owen
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Marcus Daniels

“The only solution to the problem of fake news that neither misdiagnoses the 
problem nor overpowers the elites is to completely rethink the fundamentals of 
digital capitalism. We need to make online advertising – and its destructive 
click-and-share drive – less central to how we live, work and communicate.”

Well, advertising existed before digital advertising.   Investigative reporting 
has been and is an important profession.  It takes time, effort, and expertise 
to turn over rocks and figure out what the important questions are, and how to 
answer them.  That digital capitalism has a particular technical mechanism that 
is prone to proliferating nonsense is a problem that can be fixed with a 
combination of legislation/regulation and technology.   That is no more elitist 
(or authoritarian) to insist that food producers publish standard nutritional 
properties.   Yes, there are more and less credible sources for reporting, and 
in principle, the web makes this easier to communicate to readers, not harder.  
 We have cryptographic ways to (reasonably) prove that entities are who they 
say they are, and ways to prove that source documents have not be tainted.  We 
even have very sophisticated open source technology for parsing natural 
language into data structures and for reasoning based on these data structures.

I would not say that online advertising is becoming more conspicuous in my work 
or personal use of computing technology.   I don’t use Facebook at all, and 
Twitter is mainly interesting as a way to gain insight about large scale social 
networks.   I don’t communicate with Twitter.   I don’t use Instagram.   I do 
use Google and a few other search engines, and I don’t find it hard to 
discriminate between ads and content.I consume advertisements from credible 
news outlets like I would have 30 years ago.   All of the modeling these 
companies do of me can be defeated just by using Tor, if I should choose to be 
so paranoid.   Actually I think I get less advertising than I used to because I 
now just pay for Hulu, Netflix and XM radio instead of using broadcast 
television and radio.

If I am annoyed by one thing, it is that there are so many morons on the 
Internet that now don’t have to be exposed to criticism.   Usenet was different 
in this respect.Let us bring back the good old days of Usenet flame wars.  
When stubborn ignorance could get you humiliated in public and without mercy, 
over and over.

Marcus

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Roger Critchlow
Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2017 9:11 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/blaming-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis

-- rec --

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:58 PM, Merle Lefkoff 
mailto:merlelefk...@gmail.com>> wrote:
There's no need for a he/she, Owen.  The term has no relevance when talking 
about the presidency.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:31 AM, Owen Densmore 
mailto:o...@backspaces.net>> wrote:
Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.

In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we have 
been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian people to 
feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of Putin to the 
degree they do.

Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25 Damns over 
him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause another economic 
implosion which we survived pretty well.

I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or what 
blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent defense of the 
nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.

Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that, whatever 
a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected, exogenous 
events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case. I hope he 
takes the MoneyBall stance.

   -- Owen


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove



--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelef...@gmail.com<mailto:merlelef...@gmail.com>
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Nick Thompson

Hey, Owen, 

 

When I was 32 or so, I ran for the post of Planning Board Chair for the Town of 
New Braintree.  I was young and very idealistic about participatory democracy, 
and so I set as my goal to visit every house in Town to talk about the future 
of the Town, which was just small enough that that goal was plausible.   Like 
every small New England town, New  Braintree it was riven with factionalism and 
anger.  However, my hosts agreed upon one thing for sure:  “they” were 
responsible for all that was wrong with the Town.  Thing was, I never found out 
who “they” was.  I never even found a “We.”  Political unity existed only in 
the mind of those who saw themselves the victims of it.  

 

It was about that year that the this cartoon appeared.  

 



 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

 <http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/> 
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2017 10:09 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

 

All those who were outside the set of those hurt by their decisions.

 

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:50 PM, Nick Thompson mailto:nickthomp...@earthlink.net> > wrote:

O

 

And who, exactly, is this “elite” of whom we speak with such assurance and 
contempt? 

 

N

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

 <http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/> 
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com 
<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> ] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2017 9:38 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

 

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:11 PM, Roger Critchlow mailto:r...@elf.org> > wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/blaming-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis

 

-- rec --

 

Amen!

 

Democracy may or may not be drowning in fake news, but it’s definitely 
drowning in elite hypocrisy.

 

I

 hope we're able to escape that ourselves. I'm concerned that we too are 
"smug liberals". I hope I can invite my garbage collector to my next party as 
Pope Francis did.

 

   -- Owen



FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

 


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Marcus Daniels

Which decisions, exactly?

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2017 10:09 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

All those who were outside the set of those hurt by their decisions.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:50 PM, Nick Thompson 
mailto:nickthomp...@earthlink.net>> wrote:
O

And who, exactly, is this “elite” of whom we speak with such assurance and 
contempt?

N

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam 
[mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>] On Behalf 
Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2017 9:38 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:11 PM, Roger Critchlow 
mailto:r...@elf.org>> wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/blaming-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis

-- rec --

Amen!

Democracy may or may not be drowning in fake news, but it’s definitely 
drowning in elite hypocrisy.

I
 hope we're able to escape that ourselves. I'm concerned that we too are 
"smug liberals". I hope I can invite my garbage collector to my next party as 
Pope Francis did.

   -- Owen

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Owen Densmore

All those who were outside the set of those hurt by their decisions.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:50 PM, Nick Thompson 
wrote:

> O
>
>
>
> And who, exactly, is this “elite” of whom we speak with such assurance and
> contempt?
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Owen
> Densmore
> *Sent:* Saturday, January 07, 2017 9:38 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair
>
>
>
> On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:11 PM, Roger Critchlow  wrote:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/
> blaming-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis
>
>
>
> -- rec --
>
>
>
> Amen!
>
>
>
> Democracy may or may not be drowning in fake news, but it’s definitely
> drowning in elite hypocrisy.
>
>
>
> I
>
>  hope we're able to escape that ourselves. I'm concerned that we too are
> "smug liberals". I hope I can invite my garbage collector to my next party
> as Pope Francis did.
>
>
>
>-- Owen
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Nick Thompson

O

 

And who, exactly, is this “elite” of whom we speak with such assurance and 
contempt? 

 

N

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

 <http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/> 
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2017 9:38 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

 

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:11 PM, Roger Critchlow mailto:r...@elf.org> > wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/blaming-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis

 

-- rec --

 

Amen!

 

Democracy may or may not be drowning in fake news, but it’s definitely 
drowning in elite hypocrisy.

 

I

 hope we're able to escape that ourselves. I'm concerned that we too are 
"smug liberals". I hope I can invite my garbage collector to my next party as 
Pope Francis did.

 

   -- Owen


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Owen Densmore

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 9:11 PM, Roger Critchlow  wrote:

> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/
> blaming-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis
>
> -- rec --
>

Amen!

Democracy may or may not be drowning in fake news, but it’s definitely
drowning in elite hypocrisy.

I
 hope we're able to escape that ourselves. I'm concerned that we too are
"smug liberals". I hope I can invite my garbage collector to my next party
as Pope Francis did.

   -- Owen

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Roger Critchlow

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/08/blaming-fake-news-not-the-answer-democracy-crisis

-- rec --

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:58 PM, Merle Lefkoff 
wrote:

> There's no need for a he/she, Owen.  The term has no relevance when
> talking about the presidency.
>
> On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:31 AM, Owen Densmore 
> wrote:
>
>> Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.
>>
>> In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we
>> have been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian
>> people to feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of
>> Putin to the degree they do.
>>
>> Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25
>> Damns over him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause
>> another economic implosion which we survived pretty well.
>>
>> I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or
>> what blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent
>> defense of the nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.
>>
>> Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that,
>> whatever a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected,
>> exogenous events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case.
>> I hope he takes the MoneyBall stance.
>>
>>-- Owen
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>
>
>
> --
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
> merlelef...@gmail.com
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Nick Thompson

Owen:

 

cause another economic implosion which we survived pretty well.

 

“We” did?

 

Nick

 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

 <http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/> 
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2017 8:59 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

 

There's no need for a he/she, Owen.  The term has no relevance when talking 
about the presidency.

 

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:31 AM, Owen Densmore mailto:o...@backspaces.net> > wrote:

Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.

 

In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we have 
been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian people to 
feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of Putin to the 
degree they do.

 

Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25 Damns over 
him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause another economic 
implosion which we survived pretty well.

 

I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or what 
blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent defense of the 
nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.

 

Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that, whatever 
a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected, exogenous 
events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case. I hope he 
takes the MoneyBall stance.

 

   -- Owen



FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove





 

-- 

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelef...@gmail.com <mailto:merlelef...@gmail.com> 
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Merle Lefkoff

There's no need for a he/she, Owen.  The term has no relevance when talking
about the presidency.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:31 AM, Owen Densmore  wrote:

> Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.
>
> In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we
> have been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian
> people to feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of
> Putin to the degree they do.
>
> Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25 Damns
> over him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause another
> economic implosion which we survived pretty well.
>
> I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or
> what blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent
> defense of the nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.
>
> Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that,
> whatever a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected,
> exogenous events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case.
> I hope he takes the MoneyBall stance.
>
>-- Owen
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>



-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelef...@gmail.com
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Merle Lefkoff

It starts at home, Owen, but if it only stays at home it isn't enough.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 11:06 AM, Owen Densmore  wrote:

> I realized too late that my reference to the number of Damns one has may
> not have been clear.  From an earlier post:
>
> BTW: I realize I've posted this in the past, and my version of it uses s/
> fuck/damn/. But I've only got a limited number of Damn's to give, and the
> fewer, the stronger.
> https://markmanson.net/not-giving-a-fuck
>
> So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who. I have
> too few to give. My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I
> realize but then I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all
> starts at home.
>
>
> On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:31 AM, Owen Densmore 
> wrote:
>
>> Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.
>>
>> In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we
>> have been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian
>> people to feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of
>> Putin to the degree they do.
>>
>> Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25
>> Damns over him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause
>> another economic implosion which we survived pretty well.
>>
>> I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or
>> what blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent
>> defense of the nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.
>>
>> Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that,
>> whatever a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected,
>> exogenous events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case.
>> I hope he takes the MoneyBall stance.
>>
>>-- Owen
>>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>



-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelef...@gmail.com
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Jochen Fromm

Yes, I am not criticizing the CEOs, I just wonder what the next four years will 
bring, Owen mentioned Brenners "three choices" for the US
1 - Indispensable America
2 - Moneyball America
3 - Independent America
Interesting from a political perspective. From a complex systems viewpoint it 
is also interesting if one of the oldest democracies of the world finally 
slides into some kind of *-ism (fascism, cronyism, totalitarianism), how it 
occurs, and if we can prevent it somehow. 
In their attenpt for perfection the Germans have experienced all this already 
before. Hitler's movement was based on the outrage of the common people, on the 
desire of the "ordinary Joe" to be great again. There we are, Godwin's law 
strikes again. Many ordinary people were indeed happy to find new jobs through 
the Nazi party. Adolf Eichmann and Heinrich Himmler were among them, both had 
low-paying jobs or no jobs at all before they got a job in the Nazi party.
Currently for many members of the Republican party the hunger for power and 
government positions seems to be greater than their conscience and their moral 
integrity. Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel if the Republicans 
eventually give up their desire for power. If they can impeach Bill Clinton, 
maybe they can do it with Trump do. It shouldn't be difficult to find reasons.
There is hope as long as democratic institutions continue to work. Where the 
alarm bells should ring and what must be avoided is:
-  the creation of a new party or movement at the far right focussed solely on 
the president, protected by some kind of homeland security organization- a 
complete seizure of power which leads to a dictatorship, for instance after a 
terrible terror attack - concentration camps of any kind for political 
opponents, illegal immigrants, Muslims or whoever the new president declares as 
the new enemy- any kind of creation of a registry or database or list of people 
based on immigration status or religion
It is nice to see that the big IT companies signed a pledge for the last point 
already http://neveragain.tech
-J.

 Original message From: John Dobson  Date: 
1/7/17  19:41  (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee 
Group  Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair 
My son who works for Google explained why the tech CEOs met with Trump.  The 
general rule out there is that you always "take the meeting."  Taking the 
meeting in no way obligates you to do anything as a result of the meeting, but 
it does give you more information about the topics discussed at the meeting.  
In his view, this was a smart thing to do for the techies, but it is hardly 
surprising that they were not overly gruntled about the conclave.  So your 
comment about them resembling Ring-wraiths is spot on.  But it certainly does 
not mean that the meeting represented any sort of endorsement of the Donald.
On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 7:18 AM, Jochen Fromm  wrote:
Many scientists and journalists feel desperate now that Mr. T-Rump will rule 
the world, especially climate scientists like Eric 
Holthaushttps://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/817503888500633600
What are we going to do, hope or despair, resist or surrender? I'm not sure if 
we are heading towards climate hell, criminal abyss or nuclear apocalypse, or 
if America is just turning into 
Trumpistan...https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/opinion/america-becomes-a-stan.amp.html
Do you remember this odd meeting where Trump met the bosses of the big 
IT-companies? None of them looked happy, but they all came. It felt like Sauron 
is going to meet the Ring-wraiths. Each of the Ringwraiths already owns a ring 
of power. Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Apple have enormous power, some say a 
single one of them is worth more than all corporations at the Russian 
stockmarkets together. In Tolkien's epic story Sauron is beaten by the Hobbit 
Frodo who destroys the ring of power in the mountain of doom. Frodo seems to 
stand for the ordinary Joe, i.e. the ordinary people, who eventually give up 
the desire for power. Now if everyone would give up using Twitter and Facebook, 
Mr. T-Rump who lose his social media power there immediately, he would become 
bored of politics and quit. Too good to be true.
Likewise if the ordinary Joe would give up his desire to become great, rich and 
famous, then Trump wouldn't have been elected in the first place. Isn't it 
remarkable how Tolkien has observed that totalitarian dictatorships rest on the 
shoulders of the ordinary people? In Russia it is similar, the dictatorship 
here rests on the few shoulders of the small people, who depend on the welfare 
state that feeds them and tells them lies.
-Jochen





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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread John Dobson

My son who works for Google explained why the tech CEOs met with Trump.
The general rule out there is that you always "take the meeting."  Taking
the meeting in no way obligates you to do anything as a result of the
meeting, but it does give you more information about the topics discussed
at the meeting.  In his view, this was a smart thing to do for the techies,
but it is hardly surprising that they were not overly gruntled about the
conclave.  So your comment about them resembling Ring-wraiths is spot on.
But it certainly does not mean that the meeting represented any sort of
endorsement of the Donald.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 7:18 AM, Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> Many scientists and journalists feel desperate now that Mr. T-Rump will
> rule the world, especially climate scientists like Eric Holthaus
> https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/817503888500633600
>
> What are we going to do, hope or despair, resist or surrender? I'm not
> sure if we are heading towards climate hell, criminal abyss or nuclear
> apocalypse, or if America is just turning into Trumpistan...
> https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/opinion/america-becomes-a-stan.amp.html
>
> Do you remember this odd meeting where Trump met the bosses of the big
> IT-companies? None of them looked happy, but they all came. It felt like
> Sauron is going to meet the Ring-wraiths. Each of the Ringwraiths already
> owns a ring of power. Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Apple have enormous
> power, some say a single one of them is worth more than all corporations at
> the Russian stockmarkets together. In Tolkien's epic story Sauron is beaten
> by the Hobbit Frodo who destroys the ring of power in the mountain of doom.
> Frodo seems to stand for the ordinary Joe, i.e. the ordinary people, who
> eventually give up the desire for power. Now if everyone would give up
> using Twitter and Facebook, Mr. T-Rump who lose his social media power
> there immediately, he would become bored of politics and quit. Too good to
> be true.
>
> Likewise if the ordinary Joe would give up his desire to become great,
> rich and famous, then Trump wouldn't have been elected in the first place.
> Isn't it remarkable how Tolkien has observed that totalitarian
> dictatorships rest on the shoulders of the ordinary people? In Russia it is
> similar, the dictatorship here rests on the few shoulders of the small
> people, who depend on the welfare state that feeds them and tells them lies.
>
> -Jochen
>
>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Owen Densmore

BTW: Here's Bremmer's view of the threats ahead.
  http://time.com/4620424/ian-bremmer-risk-report-top-10-risks/

It does help to understand his Three Americas

Ian is famous for his "three choices" for US foreign policy:
1 - Indispensable America
2 - Moneyball America
3 - Independent America

 .. Bremmer apparently believes Trump is a mix of 2 & 3, and definitely not
1.

   -- Owen

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 11:12 AM, Marcus Daniels 
wrote:

> Owen writes:
>
>
> "It all starts at home."
>
>
> That certainly is a point of view.  Here's another:
>
>
> https://www.amazon.com/Against-Empathy-Case-Rational-
> Compassion/dp/0062339338
> --
> *From:* Friam  on behalf of Owen Densmore <
> o...@backspaces.net>
> *Sent:* Saturday, January 7, 2017 11:06:00 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair
>
> I realized too late that my reference to the number of Damns one has may
> not have been clear.  From an earlier post:
>
> BTW: I realize I've posted this in the past, and my version of it uses s/
> fuck/damn/. But I've only got a limited number of Damn's to give, and the
> fewer, the stronger.
> https://markmanson.net/not-giving-a-fuck
>
> So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who. I have
> too few to give. My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I
> realize but then I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all
> starts at home.
>
>
> On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:31 AM, Owen Densmore 
> wrote:
>
>> Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.
>>
>> In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we
>> have been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian
>> people to feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of
>> Putin to the degree they do.
>>
>> Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25
>> Damns over him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause
>> another economic implosion which we survived pretty well.
>>
>> I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or
>> what blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent
>> defense of the nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.
>>
>> Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that,
>> whatever a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected,
>> exogenous events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case.
>> I hope he takes the MoneyBall stance.
>>
>>-- Owen
>>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Marcus Daniels

Owen writes:


"It all starts at home."


That certainly is a point of view.  Here's another:


https://www.amazon.com/Against-Empathy-Case-Rational-Compassion/dp/0062339338


From: Friam  on behalf of Owen Densmore 

Sent: Saturday, January 7, 2017 11:06:00 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

I realized too late that my reference to the number of Damns one has may not 
have been clear.  From an earlier post:

BTW: I realize I've posted this in the past, and my version of it uses 
s/fuck/damn/. But I've only got a limited number of Damn's to give, and the 
fewer, the stronger.
https://markmanson.net/not-giving-a-fuck

So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who. I have too few 
to give. My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I realize but then 
I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all starts at home.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:31 AM, Owen Densmore 
mailto:o...@backspaces.net>> wrote:
Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.

In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we have 
been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian people to 
feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of Putin to the 
degree they do.

Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25 Damns over 
him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause another economic 
implosion which we survived pretty well.

I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or what 
blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent defense of the 
nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.

Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that, whatever 
a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected, exogenous 
events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case. I hope he 
takes the MoneyBall stance.

   -- Owen


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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Marcus Daniels

Owen writes:


"Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause another economic 
implosion which we survived pretty well."


For certain definitions of "we".   In that spirit, let's return to the 
chemotherapy example, or consider fluctuations in deer population as a function 
of hunting policy, or life in Allepo.   The respective populations won't get 
completely annihilated, but they are big fluctuations.


Of course we as a population will "survive pretty well".  That's a goal for 
deep sea bacterial, not wealthy democracies.   As a population we will survive 
even if everyone carries an AK-47 and uses it every time their feelings get 
hurt.


Marcus


From: Friam  on behalf of Owen Densmore 

Sent: Saturday, January 7, 2017 10:31:02 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.

In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we have 
been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian people to 
feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of Putin to the 
degree they do.

Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25 Damns over 
him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause another economic 
implosion which we survived pretty well.

I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or what 
blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent defense of the 
nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.

Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that, whatever 
a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected, exogenous 
events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case. I hope he 
takes the MoneyBall stance.

   -- Owen

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Owen Densmore

I realized too late that my reference to the number of Damns one has may
not have been clear.  From an earlier post:

BTW: I realize I've posted this in the past, and my version of it uses s/
fuck/damn/. But I've only got a limited number of Damn's to give, and the
fewer, the stronger.
https://markmanson.net/not-giving-a-fuck

So I just don't give a Damn about the president, no matter who. I have too
few to give. My first Damn is for Love & Compassion, kinda weak I realize
but then I think I can stop war by being peaceful myself. It all starts at
home.

On Sat, Jan 7, 2017 at 10:31 AM, Owen Densmore  wrote:

> Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.
>
> In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we
> have been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian
> people to feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of
> Putin to the degree they do.
>
> Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25 Damns
> over him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause another
> economic implosion which we survived pretty well.
>
> I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or
> what blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent
> defense of the nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.
>
> Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that,
> whatever a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected,
> exogenous events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case.
> I hope he takes the MoneyBall stance.
>
>-- Owen
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Owen Densmore

Clearly you need to attend to Kissinger and Bremmer.

In terms of Russia, Kissinger's analysis of the Nation State suggests we
have been far too shallow. There are very good reasons for the Russian
people to feel exposed by the west's encroachment, and why they approve of
Putin to the degree they do.

Trump is no threat. I personally have not given up even one of my 25 Damns
over him. Any threatened Rape and Pillage will likely just cause another
economic implosion which we survived pretty well.

I am curious, however, which of Bremmers 3 Americas Trump tends to, or what
blend of the three. And what Trump thinks of Kissinger's recent defense of
the nation state .. I know Kissinger is meeting with Trump.

Presidential politics are unique. Presidential historians agree that,
whatever a president has promised, he/she is always formed by unexpected,
exogenous events. At a guess, they will be foreign affairs in Trump's case.
I hope he takes the MoneyBall stance.

   -- Owen

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Jochen Fromm

Yes, it is one of the things Eric complains about:
"But what the hell am I supposed to do? Write another blog post? Our secretary 
of state is the fucking Exxon 
CEO."https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/817505151720169472
Nothing to see here. Please disperse...
-J.


 Original message From: Marcus Daniels  
Date: 1/7/17  16:43  (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity 
Coffee Group  Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair 




Jochen writes:



"Many scientists and journalists feel desperate now that Mr. T-Rump will rule 
the world, especially climate scientists like Eric Holthaus"



Move along, nothing to see here.. and certainly no conflicts of interest.






http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/world/europe/rex-tillersons-company-exxon-has-billions-at-stake-over-russia-sanctions.html




From: Friam  on behalf of Jochen Fromm 


Sent: Saturday, January 7, 2017 7:18:13 AM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group

Subject: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair
 

Many scientists and journalists feel desperate now that Mr. T-Rump will rule 
the world, especially climate scientists like Eric Holthaus

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/817503888500633600




What are we going to do, hope or despair, resist or surrender? I'm not sure if 
we are heading towards climate hell, criminal abyss or nuclear apocalypse, or 
if America is just turning into Trumpistan...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/opinion/america-becomes-a-stan.amp.html



Do you remember this odd meeting where Trump met the bosses of the big 
IT-companies? None of them looked happy, but they all came. It felt like Sauron 
is going to meet the Ring-wraiths. Each of the Ringwraiths already owns a ring 
of power. Facebook, Google,
 Amazon, and Apple have enormous power, some say a single one of them is worth 
more than all corporations at the Russian stockmarkets together. In Tolkien's 
epic story Sauron is beaten by the Hobbit Frodo who destroys the ring of power 
in the mountain of doom.
 Frodo seems to stand for the ordinary Joe, i.e. the ordinary people, who 
eventually give up the desire for power. Now if everyone would give up using 
Twitter and Facebook, Mr. T-Rump who lose his social media power there 
immediately, he would become bored
 of politics and quit. Too good to be true.



Likewise if the ordinary Joe would give up his desire to become great, rich and 
famous, then Trump wouldn't have been elected in the first place. Isn't it 
remarkable how Tolkien has observed that totalitarian dictatorships rest on the 
shoulders of the
 ordinary people? In Russia it is similar, the dictatorship here rests on the 
few shoulders of the small people, who depend on the welfare state that feeds 
them and tells them lies.



-Jochen











FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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Re: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Marcus Daniels

Jochen writes:

"Many scientists and journalists feel desperate now that Mr. T-Rump will rule 
the world, especially climate scientists like Eric Holthaus"

Move along, nothing to see here.. and certainly no conflicts of interest.


<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/world/europe/rex-tillersons-company-exxon-has-billions-at-stake-over-russia-sanctions.html>

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/world/europe/rex-tillersons-company-exxon-has-billions-at-stake-over-russia-sanctions.html


From: Friam  on behalf of Jochen Fromm 

Sent: Saturday, January 7, 2017 7:18:13 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] Hope or Despair

Many scientists and journalists feel desperate now that Mr. T-Rump will rule 
the world, especially climate scientists like Eric Holthaus
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/817503888500633600

What are we going to do, hope or despair, resist or surrender? I'm not sure if 
we are heading towards climate hell, criminal abyss or nuclear apocalypse, or 
if America is just turning into Trumpistan...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/opinion/america-becomes-a-stan.amp.html

Do you remember this odd meeting where Trump met the bosses of the big 
IT-companies? None of them looked happy, but they all came. It felt like Sauron 
is going to meet the Ring-wraiths. Each of the Ringwraiths already owns a ring 
of power. Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Apple have enormous power, some say a 
single one of them is worth more than all corporations at the Russian 
stockmarkets together. In Tolkien's epic story Sauron is beaten by the Hobbit 
Frodo who destroys the ring of power in the mountain of doom. Frodo seems to 
stand for the ordinary Joe, i.e. the ordinary people, who eventually give up 
the desire for power. Now if everyone would give up using Twitter and Facebook, 
Mr. T-Rump who lose his social media power there immediately, he would become 
bored of politics and quit. Too good to be true.

Likewise if the ordinary Joe would give up his desire to become great, rich and 
famous, then Trump wouldn't have been elected in the first place. Isn't it 
remarkable how Tolkien has observed that totalitarian dictatorships rest on the 
shoulders of the ordinary people? In Russia it is similar, the dictatorship 
here rests on the few shoulders of the small people, who depend on the welfare 
state that feeds them and tells them lies.

-Jochen




FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

[FRIAM] Hope or Despair

2017-01-07 Thread Jochen Fromm

Many scientists and journalists feel desperate now that Mr. T-Rump will rule 
the world, especially climate scientists like Eric 
Holthaushttps://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/817503888500633600
What are we going to do, hope or despair, resist or surrender? I'm not sure if 
we are heading towards climate hell, criminal abyss or nuclear apocalypse, or 
if America is just turning into 
Trumpistan...https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/opinion/america-becomes-a-stan.amp.html
Do you remember this odd meeting where Trump met the bosses of the big 
IT-companies? None of them looked happy, but they all came. It felt like Sauron 
is going to meet the Ring-wraiths. Each of the Ringwraiths already owns a ring 
of power. Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Apple have enormous power, some say a 
single one of them is worth more than all corporations at the Russian 
stockmarkets together. In Tolkien's epic story Sauron is beaten by the Hobbit 
Frodo who destroys the ring of power in the mountain of doom. Frodo seems to 
stand for the ordinary Joe, i.e. the ordinary people, who eventually give up 
the desire for power. Now if everyone would give up using Twitter and Facebook, 
Mr. T-Rump who lose his social media power there immediately, he would become 
bored of politics and quit. Too good to be true.
Likewise if the ordinary Joe would give up his desire to become great, rich and 
famous, then Trump wouldn't have been elected in the first place. Isn't it 
remarkable how Tolkien has observed that totalitarian dictatorships rest on the 
shoulders of the ordinary people? In Russia it is similar, the dictatorship 
here rests on the few shoulders of the small people, who depend on the welfare 
state that feeds them and tells them lies.
-Jochen



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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-10 Thread glen

On 10/07/2016 05:37 PM, Nick Thompson wrote:
> One the one hand, I believe that intentional education by any neighborhood is 
> probably better than education that as seen as inflicted the families of the 
> neighborhood, if only because of the placebo effect.  On the other hand, all 
> the effort by parents of one school to serve the kids in their school, makes 
> the schools uneven in just the way that we cannot tolerate, and is 
> destructive of the higher order community.  Does that make me a hierarchical 
> communitarian.  Geez.   Some of the best outcomes are produced when the 
> entire meta-community pulls together, but unfortunately that seems to require 
> a war.  

At a monthly extra-curricular activity at the local college, a discussion came 
up about which students were (and were not) likely to attend such a thing.  (In 
this meeting, we discussed this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08225)  I 
tried to goad the professors and students (who obviously believe in the power 
of formal education) into discussing categories of students, e.g. those who 
will simply complete the program but be fairly lackluster vs. those who attack 
the domain with zest. 8^)  I failed.  Everyone remained polite.  Of course, I 
do this precisely because I'm _not_ a fan of formal education.

In any case, as a result, I began to think about the degradation of our 
society's overall decency through the advent and stabilization of social media 
like Twitter.  Such has given the disenfrachised a louder bullhorn to blast 
their opinions and positions.  In some cases, that's good.  But for the most 
part, it's given voice to things like radicalization, "alt-right", "men's 
rights", the psychological diagnosis of us trolls from a distance, etc.

But in the context of Nick's frame, perhaps such disruption is an example of 
breaking out of a local optimum, going through a less optimal state, in order 
to arrive at a higher (though still local) optimum elsewhere in the space?  I 
admit I've had (probably stolen) this same thought about MOOCs.  Do we have to 
suffer a period of sub-standard education in order to come out the other side 
onto a super-standard?

-- 
∃glenE

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-08 Thread Nick Thompson

Thanks, John, for straightening me out. 

Nick

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

 <http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/> 
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of John Dobson
Sent: Sunday, October 09, 2016 12:11 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

Nick,

You inquired about the relative populations of states in 1824.  Actually, 
Ohio's population was larger than any New England State including 
Massachusetts.  Collectively, New England's six states controlled 51 electoral 
votes or 19 percent of the national total of 261.  Adams only had to round up 
those six and seven more loyal to Clay including Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri and 
Louisiana to defeat Jackson when the House voted.  

The other monkey wrench in the proceedings was the candidacy of William 
Crawford of Georgia.  Even though he suffered a paralytic stroke in 1823, he 
racked up more popular votes than Clay and retained the support of four state 
delegations when the vote went to the House in early 1825.  Thus Crawford's 
support basically kept his electoral and state votes off the table for either 
Jackson or Adams.  

Four popular candidates, each representing a different region of the country 
made for a very contentious ending to the "Era of Good Feelings" during which 
there was almost no opposition to electing and re-electing James Monroe as the 
Democratic-Republican heir to the Jefferson-Madison dynasty.

Jackson and his remarkably able campaign chairman, Martin Van Buren, organized 
the first truly national party, held the first national party convention in 
1828, and ensured that this sort of foolishness would not recur.

Fun, fun, fun!

On Fri, Oct 7, 2016 at 7:37 PM, Nick Thompson mailto:nickthomp...@earthlink.net> > wrote:

Hi, 

I am just catching up with this debate, so forgive me if I am annoyingly 
irrelevant.  

I confess I am not much of a fan for privatizing Social Security and medicate, 
which I understand Johnson to be.  I am not a libertarian, but more a 
communitarian, which is why the charter school issue is such tough one for me.  
One the one hand, I believe that intentional education by any neighborhood is 
probably better than education that as seen as inflicted the families of the 
neighborhood, if only because of the placebo effect.  On the other hand, all 
the effort by parents of one school to serve the kids in their school, makes 
the schools uneven in just the way that we cannot tolerate, and is destructive 
of the higher order community.  Does that make me a hierarchical communitarian. 
 Geez.   Some of the best outcomes are produced when the entire meta-community 
pulls together, but unfortunately that seems to require a war.  Anyway, you 
Johnson fans can take comfort in the fact that Professor Dave will box my ears 
soundly when I turn up at Friam in a week.  

On a historical matter, I was confused by: 

So, anyway, it was up to the House to select the winner, each state delegation 
casting one vote.  Adams benefitted because the underpopulated New England 
States all went to him

I would have thought that in 1824, the population of new England states was 
high compared to much larger states such as Ohio, Kentucky, etc.  So, I would 
have thought that they would be UNDER-represented in a state by state poll of 
the House delegations.  John can box my ears on that one.  

Looking forward to meeting with the Mother Church next Friday at St. Johns. 

NIck

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

-Original Message-
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com 
<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> ] On Behalf Of ?glen?
Sent: Friday, October 07, 2016 12:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

Thanks for the story!  I was aware, but only barely, in the context free way 
that's so common these days.

On 10/05/2016 04:18 PM, John Dobson wrote:

> I assume you guys all know about the only time the election has been thrown 
> into the House.  It was 1824 when there were four candidates who won 
> electoral votes, although Andrew Jackson had a pretty large plurality of the 
> popular vote.  John Quincy Adams bitterly hated Jackson and assumed 
> (Clinton/Bush dynasty-like) that he should be the president because his dad 
> had done such a dynamite job as Washington's successor in 1797.

> 

> So, anyway, it was up to the House to select the winner, each state 
> delegation casting one vote.  Adams benefitted because the underpopulated New 
> England States all went

Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-08 Thread John Dobson

Nick,

You inquired about the relative populations of states in 1824.  Actually,
Ohio's population was larger than any New England State including
Massachusetts.  Collectively, New England's six states controlled 51
electoral votes or 19 percent of the national total of 261.  Adams only had
to round up those six and seven more loyal to Clay including Kentucky,
Ohio, Missouri and Louisiana to defeat Jackson when the House voted.

The other monkey wrench in the proceedings was the candidacy of William
Crawford of Georgia.  Even though he suffered a paralytic stroke in 1823,
he racked up more popular votes than Clay and retained the support of four
state delegations when the vote went to the House in early 1825.  Thus
Crawford's support basically kept his electoral and state votes off the
table for either Jackson or Adams.

Four popular candidates, each representing a different region of the
country made for a very contentious ending to the "Era of Good Feelings"
during which there was almost no opposition to electing and re-electing
James Monroe as the Democratic-Republican heir to the Jefferson-Madison
dynasty.

Jackson and his remarkably able campaign chairman, Martin Van Buren,
organized the first truly national party, held the first national party
convention in 1828, and ensured that this sort of foolishness would not
recur.

Fun, fun, fun!

On Fri, Oct 7, 2016 at 7:37 PM, Nick Thompson 
wrote:

> Hi,
>
>
>
> I am just catching up with this debate, so forgive me if I am annoyingly
> irrelevant.
>
>
>
> I confess I am not much of a fan for privatizing Social Security and
> medicate, which I understand Johnson to be.  I am not a libertarian, but
> more a communitarian, which is why the charter school issue is such tough
> one for me.  One the one hand, I believe that intentional education by any
> neighborhood is probably better than education that as seen as inflicted
> the families of the neighborhood, if only because of the placebo effect.
> On the other hand, all the effort by parents of one school to serve the
> kids in their school, makes the schools uneven in just the way that we
> cannot tolerate, and is destructive of the higher order community.  Does
> that make me a hierarchical communitarian.  Geez.   Some of the best
> outcomes are produced when the entire meta-community pulls together, but
> unfortunately that seems to require a war.  Anyway, you Johnson fans can
> take comfort in the fact that Professor Dave will box my ears soundly when
> I turn up at Friam in a week.
>
>
>
> On a historical matter, I was confused by:
>
>
>
> *So, anyway, it was up to the House to select the winner, each state
> delegation casting one vote.  Adams benefitted because the underpopulated
> New England States all went to him*
>
>
>
> I would have thought that in 1824, the population of new England states
> was high compared to much larger states such as Ohio, Kentucky, etc.  So, I
> would have thought that they would be UNDER-represented in a state by state
> poll of the House delegations.  John can box my ears on that one.
>
>
>
> Looking forward to meeting with the Mother Church next Friday at St.
> Johns.
>
>
>
> NIck
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-
> From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of ?glen?
> Sent: Friday, October 07, 2016 12:04 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope?
>
>
>
> Thanks for the story!  I was aware, but only barely, in the context free
> way that's so common these days.
>
>
>
> On 10/05/2016 04:18 PM, John Dobson wrote:
>
> > I assume you guys all know about the only time the election has been
> thrown into the House.  It was 1824 when there were four candidates who won
> electoral votes, although Andrew Jackson had a pretty large plurality of
> the popular vote.  John Quincy Adams bitterly hated Jackson and assumed
> (Clinton/Bush dynasty-like) that he should be the president because his dad
> had done such a dynamite job as Washington's successor in 1797.
>
> >
>
> > So, anyway, it was up to the House to select the winner, each state
> delegation casting one vote.  Adams benefitted because the underpopulated
> New England States all went to him and he made what Jacksonians claimed was
> a "corrupt bargain" with Henry Clay of Kentucky to basically drop out of
> the race and swing his delegation to Adams.  It worked.  Adams won by a
> single vote.  Then he named Clay his secretary of state, the very job he
> was relinqui

Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-07 Thread Nick Thompson

Hi, 

I am just catching up with this debate, so forgive me if I am annoyingly 
irrelevant.  

I confess I am not much of a fan for privatizing Social Security and medicate, 
which I understand Johnson to be.  I am not a libertarian, but more a 
communitarian, which is why the charter school issue is such tough one for me.  
One the one hand, I believe that intentional education by any neighborhood is 
probably better than education that as seen as inflicted the families of the 
neighborhood, if only because of the placebo effect.  On the other hand, all 
the effort by parents of one school to serve the kids in their school, makes 
the schools uneven in just the way that we cannot tolerate, and is destructive 
of the higher order community.  Does that make me a hierarchical communitarian. 
 Geez.   Some of the best outcomes are produced when the entire meta-community 
pulls together, but unfortunately that seems to require a war.  Anyway, you 
Johnson fans can take comfort in the fact that Professor Dave will box my ears 
soundly when I turn up at Friam in a week.  

On a historical matter, I was confused by: 

So, anyway, it was up to the House to select the winner, each state delegation 
casting one vote.  Adams benefitted because the underpopulated New England 
States all went to him

I would have thought that in 1824, the population of new England states was 
high compared to much larger states such as Ohio, Kentucky, etc.  So, I would 
have thought that they would be UNDER-represented in a state by state poll of 
the House delegations.  John can box my ears on that one.  

Looking forward to meeting with the Mother Church next Friday at St. Johns. 

NIck

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

-Original Message-
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of ?glen?
Sent: Friday, October 07, 2016 12:04 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

Thanks for the story!  I was aware, but only barely, in the context free way 
that's so common these days.

On 10/05/2016 04:18 PM, John Dobson wrote:

> I assume you guys all know about the only time the election has been thrown 
> into the House.  It was 1824 when there were four candidates who won 
> electoral votes, although Andrew Jackson had a pretty large plurality of the 
> popular vote.  John Quincy Adams bitterly hated Jackson and assumed 
> (Clinton/Bush dynasty-like) that he should be the president because his dad 
> had done such a dynamite job as Washington's successor in 1797.

> 

> So, anyway, it was up to the House to select the winner, each state 
> delegation casting one vote.  Adams benefitted because the underpopulated New 
> England States all went to him and he made what Jacksonians claimed was a 
> "corrupt bargain" with Henry Clay of Kentucky to basically drop out of the 
> race and swing his delegation to Adams.  It worked.  Adams won by a single 
> vote.  Then he named Clay his secretary of state, the very job he was 
> relinquishing and the cabinet office that was most likely to insure that its 
> incumbent would have the inside track for the succeeding presidential 
> election.

> 

> Of course, Jackson came back strong in 1828 winning the first of two terms 
> outright.  Henry Clay continued to run for President as a Whig into the 1840s 
> but never managed to cash in the corrupt bargain for the top spot.  Given 
> this year's candidates, I think any one of the three---Adams, Jackson, or 
> Clay---would be preferable.  

> 

> Even if Gary Johnson managed to "win" New Mexico, it's not clear what the 
> result in the House would be if each state's delegation had a single vote.  I 
> suppose the Republicans; gerrymandering would work in their favor though as 
> there are more "red" states than blue at this point.

> 

> Having a Ph.D. in American history doesn't help me much in doping out current 
> affairs.

--

␦glen?

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-07 Thread ┣glen┫

Thanks for the story!  I was aware, but only barely, in the context free way 
that's so common these days.

On 10/05/2016 04:18 PM, John Dobson wrote:
> I assume you guys all know about the only time the election has been thrown 
> into the House.  It was 1824 when there were four candidates who won 
> electoral votes, although Andrew Jackson had a pretty large plurality of the 
> popular vote.  John Quincy Adams bitterly hated Jackson and assumed 
> (Clinton/Bush dynasty-like) that he should be the president because his dad 
> had done such a dynamite job as Washington's successor in 1797.
> 
> So, anyway, it was up to the House to select the winner, each state 
> delegation casting one vote.  Adams benefitted because the underpopulated New 
> England States all went to him and he made what Jacksonians claimed was a 
> "corrupt bargain" with Henry Clay of Kentucky to basically drop out of the 
> race and swing his delegation to Adams.  It worked.  Adams won by a single 
> vote.  Then he named Clay his secretary of state, the very job he was 
> relinquishing and the cabinet office that was most likely to insure that its 
> incumbent would have the inside track for the succeeding presidential 
> election.
> 
> Of course, Jackson came back strong in 1828 winning the first of two terms 
> outright.  Henry Clay continued to run for President as a Whig into the 1840s 
> but never managed to cash in the corrupt bargain for the top spot.  Given 
> this year's candidates, I think any one of the three---Adams, Jackson, or 
> Clay---would be preferable.  
> 
> Even if Gary Johnson managed to "win" New Mexico, it's not clear what the 
> result in the House would be if each state's delegation had a single vote.  I 
> suppose the Republicans; gerrymandering would work in their favor though as 
> there are more "red" states than blue at this point.
> 
> Having a Ph.D. in American history doesn't help me much in doping out current 
> affairs.


-- 
␦glen?


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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-05 Thread John Dobson

I assume you guys all know about the only time the election has been thrown
into the House.  It was 1824 when there were four candidates who won
electoral votes, although Andrew Jackson had a pretty large plurality of
the popular vote.  John Quincy Adams bitterly hated Jackson and assumed
(Clinton/Bush dynasty-like) that he should be the president because his dad
had done such a dynamite job as Washington's successor in 1797.

So, anyway, it was up to the House to select the winner, each state
delegation casting one vote.  Adams benefitted because the underpopulated
New England States all went to him and he made what Jacksonians claimed was
a "corrupt bargain" with Henry Clay of Kentucky to basically drop out of
the race and swing his delegation to Adams.  It worked.  Adams won by a
single vote.  Then he named Clay his secretary of state, the very job he
was relinquishing and the cabinet office that was most likely to insure
that its incumbent would have the inside track for the succeeding
presidential election.

Of course, Jackson came back strong in 1828 winning the first of two terms
outright.  Henry Clay continued to run for President as a Whig into the
1840s but never managed to cash in the corrupt bargain for the top spot.
Given this year's candidates, I think any one of the three---Adams,
Jackson, or Clay---would be preferable.

Even if Gary Johnson managed to "win" New Mexico, it's not clear what the
result in the House would be if each state's delegation had a single vote.
I suppose the Republicans; gerrymandering would work in their favor though
as there are more "red" states than blue at this point.

Having a Ph.D. in American history doesn't help me much in doping out
current affairs.

John Dobson

On Wed, Oct 5, 2016 at 3:36 PM, Eric Charles  wrote:

> "all this assumes that the debates have any real impact."
>
> Well, yes... but not in the same way one would assume it would work for
> the "major" party candidates. I suspect the opportunity offered to a third
> party candidate (for good or ill) by being on the debate stage is much more
> than for the candidates who already have neigh-ubiquitous media saturation.
>
> "what if a third-party candidate can win at least one state?"
>
> As an odd quirk of the system, they don't necessarily even have to win a
> state. Though it is extremely rare, some states do not bind their electoral
> college delegates, and it is thus possible for some delegates to cast votes
> for anyone they choose. In 1972, a year after it was founded, the
> Libertarian Party received a vote from one of the Virginia delegates
> (making their VP candidate, Tonie Nathan, the first woman and the first Jew
> to ever receive an electoral vote). My understanding is that such an action
> would qualify the recipient for consideration. Well at least, the *top
> three* electoral vote getters would qualify for consideration by the
> House of Representatives, even if the top three vote getters had not all
> run public campaigns up to that point.
>
>
>
>
> ---
> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
> Supervisory Survey Statistician
> U.S. Marine Corps
> 
>
> On Wed, Oct 5, 2016 at 3:15 PM, glen ☣  wrote:
>
>> On 10/03/2016 05:18 PM, Robert Wall wrote:
>>
>>> If they are not in those debates, it is argued that it is
>>> near-impossible for them to win much in the Electoral College.
>>>
>>
>> Of course, all this assumes that the debates have any real impact.  I
>> think most of the evidence shows the 1st debate mattered in the poll
>> results (even if only 1-2 % points).  But the map between polls and votes
>> is complex, too.  It's reasonable to think that only people who pay
>> attention to politics at all care about the debates.  And those are also
>> the people who respond to polls.  So, there's a leap of faith that the
>> debates matter at all.
>>
>> Barring any serious gaffes, my guess is the effect from advertisements
>> swamps that from the debates.
>>
>> Now, under this "possible" scenario, any other third-party candidate
>>> would have to be considered if they win any state; that is if I understand
>>> the rules for this heretofore unprecedented event. So, if this is so, what
>>> if a third-party candidate can win at least one state?
>>>
>>
>> I suppose because Trump is so despised by so many Republicans, it's
>> reasonable to think Johnson would have a chance in the House election.  But
>> the populist backlash would be yuuuge.  Such a scenario would lend more
>> credence to the worries about riots and domestic terrorism after the
>> election.  So, my guess would be that if the House has to vote, they'll
>> vote for Trump or Clinton.  Since Clinton is basically a neocon right along
>> the lines of Bush'43, respectable House Republicans will be able to justify
>> a vote for her over Johnson.
>>
>> According to /Merriam-Webster/, plausible means "appearing worthy of
>>> belief ."  Maybe this year many things that didn't seem credible in the
>>> past could be worthy of our belief this cycle

Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-05 Thread Eric Charles

"all this assumes that the debates have any real impact."

Well, yes... but not in the same way one would assume it would work for the
"major" party candidates. I suspect the opportunity offered to a third
party candidate (for good or ill) by being on the debate stage is much more
than for the candidates who already have neigh-ubiquitous media saturation.

"what if a third-party candidate can win at least one state?"

As an odd quirk of the system, they don't necessarily even have to win a
state. Though it is extremely rare, some states do not bind their electoral
college delegates, and it is thus possible for some delegates to cast votes
for anyone they choose. In 1972, a year after it was founded, the
Libertarian Party received a vote from one of the Virginia delegates
(making their VP candidate, Tonie Nathan, the first woman and the first Jew
to ever receive an electoral vote). My understanding is that such an action
would qualify the recipient for consideration. Well at least, the *top
three* electoral vote getters would qualify for consideration by the House
of Representatives, even if the top three vote getters had not all run
public campaigns up to that point.

---
Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
Supervisory Survey Statistician
U.S. Marine Corps

On Wed, Oct 5, 2016 at 3:15 PM, glen ☣  wrote:

> On 10/03/2016 05:18 PM, Robert Wall wrote:
>
>> If they are not in those debates, it is argued that it is near-impossible
>> for them to win much in the Electoral College.
>>
>
> Of course, all this assumes that the debates have any real impact.  I
> think most of the evidence shows the 1st debate mattered in the poll
> results (even if only 1-2 % points).  But the map between polls and votes
> is complex, too.  It's reasonable to think that only people who pay
> attention to politics at all care about the debates.  And those are also
> the people who respond to polls.  So, there's a leap of faith that the
> debates matter at all.
>
> Barring any serious gaffes, my guess is the effect from advertisements
> swamps that from the debates.
>
> Now, under this "possible" scenario, any other third-party candidate would
>> have to be considered if they win any state; that is if I understand the
>> rules for this heretofore unprecedented event. So, if this is so, what if a
>> third-party candidate can win at least one state?
>>
>
> I suppose because Trump is so despised by so many Republicans, it's
> reasonable to think Johnson would have a chance in the House election.  But
> the populist backlash would be yuuuge.  Such a scenario would lend more
> credence to the worries about riots and domestic terrorism after the
> election.  So, my guess would be that if the House has to vote, they'll
> vote for Trump or Clinton.  Since Clinton is basically a neocon right along
> the lines of Bush'43, respectable House Republicans will be able to justify
> a vote for her over Johnson.
>
> According to /Merriam-Webster/, plausible means "appearing worthy of
>> belief ."  Maybe this year many things that didn't seem credible in the
>> past could be worthy of our belief this cycle.  I mean, how credible is it
>> that Donald Trump would have become the GOP's champion candidate for
>> POTUS?  Everything seems upside-down this time.  Yes?
>>
>
> Heh, well some of us believe in things like virgin births, chiropracty,
> transubstantiation, telekinesis, chemtrails, and acupuncture ... So, it's
> plausible that the word "plausible" is a completely useless word. 8^)
>
>
> --
> ☣ glen
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-05 Thread glen ☣


On 10/03/2016 05:18 PM, Robert Wall wrote:

If they are not in those debates, it is argued that it is near-impossible for 
them to win much in the Electoral College.


Of course, all this assumes that the debates have any real impact.  I think 
most of the evidence shows the 1st debate mattered in the poll results (even if 
only 1-2 % points).  But the map between polls and votes is complex, too.  It's 
reasonable to think that only people who pay attention to politics at all care 
about the debates.  And those are also the people who respond to polls.  So, 
there's a leap of faith that the debates matter at all.

Barring any serious gaffes, my guess is the effect from advertisements swamps 
that from the debates.


Now, under this "possible" scenario, any other third-party candidate would have 
to be considered if they win any state; that is if I understand the rules for this 
heretofore unprecedented event. So, if this is so, what if a third-party candidate can 
win at least one state?


I suppose because Trump is so despised by so many Republicans, it's reasonable 
to think Johnson would have a chance in the House election.  But the populist 
backlash would be yuuuge.  Such a scenario would lend more credence to the 
worries about riots and domestic terrorism after the election.  So, my guess 
would be that if the House has to vote, they'll vote for Trump or Clinton.  
Since Clinton is basically a neocon right along the lines of Bush'43, 
respectable House Republicans will be able to justify a vote for her over 
Johnson.


According to /Merriam-Webster/, plausible means "appearing worthy of belief ."  
Maybe this year many things that didn't seem credible in the past could be worthy of our 
belief this cycle.  I mean, how credible is it that Donald Trump would have become the 
GOP's champion candidate for POTUS?  Everything seems upside-down this time.  Yes?


Heh, well some of us believe in things like virgin births, chiropracty, 
transubstantiation, telekinesis, chemtrails, and acupuncture ... So, it's plausible that 
the word "plausible" is a completely useless word. 8^)

--
☣ glen


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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-04 Thread Gillian Densmore

hey man I can down a beer get to level 10 in pokemon, and (eventually) make
it to wedtech :P
Plus the wedtech rants and raves are at least interesting
Choosing between a  dysfunctional robot or neurotic robot is a little less
so

On Tue, Oct 4, 2016 at 10:22 AM, cody dooderson  wrote:

> If Glen is talking about what I think he is. It takes me roughly 14 hours,
> after eating an enchilada, to get a homogeneous result from my simulation
> of this year's election, but I have a particularly slow moving large
> intestine.
>
>
>
>
>
> Cody Smith
>
> On Mon, Oct 3, 2016 at 8:38 PM, Steven A Smith  wrote:
>
>> no shit sherlock!
>>
>>
>> what a great phrase in an auspicious time?
>>
>> On 10/3/16 5:29 PM, glen ☣ wrote:
>>
>>> I liked the point as made by this post:
>>>
>>> http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/09/28/debate-nights-biggest
>>> -lie-was-told-by-lester-holt/
>>>
>>> But even if we admit that the only purpose for the peripheral candidates
>>> is to influence the actual candidates, we still have an argument for
>>> allowing them to debate.  So, the answer to the question of why they're not
>>> in the debate really is because it's _bipartisan_ not nonpartisan.  It's
>>> just another example of how the expressivity of your language biases what
>>> you do/can understand.
>>>
>>> On 10/03/2016 04:21 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>>
 Gary Johnson is not plausible.  Didn't 538 say his odds were 2 in 100?

 On Oct 3, 2016 5:05 PM, "Robert Wall"  wrote:


> This simulation ensemble conducted by *FiveThirtyEight *gives some
> plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary
> Johnson--not
> Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some
> non-zero
> plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't
> Johnson
> in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to
> find
> out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? 🤔😁
>
>
>>>
>>>
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>
>
>
> 
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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-04 Thread cody dooderson

If Glen is talking about what I think he is. It takes me roughly 14 hours,
after eating an enchilada, to get a homogeneous result from my simulation
of this year's election, but I have a particularly slow moving large
intestine.





Cody Smith

On Mon, Oct 3, 2016 at 8:38 PM, Steven A Smith  wrote:

> no shit sherlock!
>
>
> what a great phrase in an auspicious time?
>
> On 10/3/16 5:29 PM, glen ☣ wrote:
>
>> I liked the point as made by this post:
>>
>> http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/09/28/debate-nights-biggest
>> -lie-was-told-by-lester-holt/
>>
>> But even if we admit that the only purpose for the peripheral candidates
>> is to influence the actual candidates, we still have an argument for
>> allowing them to debate.  So, the answer to the question of why they're not
>> in the debate really is because it's _bipartisan_ not nonpartisan.  It's
>> just another example of how the expressivity of your language biases what
>> you do/can understand.
>>
>> On 10/03/2016 04:21 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>>
>>> Gary Johnson is not plausible.  Didn't 538 say his odds were 2 in 100?
>>>
>>> On Oct 3, 2016 5:05 PM, "Robert Wall"  wrote:
>>>
>>>
 This simulation ensemble conducted by *FiveThirtyEight *gives some
 plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary
 Johnson--not
 Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some
 non-zero
 plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't
 Johnson
 in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to find
 out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? 🤔😁


>>
>>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-03 Thread Steven A Smith


no shit sherlock!


what a great phrase in an auspicious time?

On 10/3/16 5:29 PM, glen ☣ wrote:

I liked the point as made by this post:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/09/28/debate-nights-biggest-lie-was-told-by-lester-holt/ 



But even if we admit that the only purpose for the peripheral 
candidates is to influence the actual candidates, we still have an 
argument for allowing them to debate.  So, the answer to the question 
of why they're not in the debate really is because it's _bipartisan_ 
not nonpartisan.  It's just another example of how the expressivity of 
your language biases what you do/can understand.


On 10/03/2016 04:21 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Gary Johnson is not plausible.  Didn't 538 say his odds were 2 in 100?

On Oct 3, 2016 5:05 PM, "Robert Wall"  wrote:



This simulation ensemble conducted by *FiveThirtyEight *gives some
plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary 
Johnson--not
Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some 
non-zero
plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't 
Johnson
in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to 
find

out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? 🤔😁








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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-03 Thread Steven A Smith


Glen -

I love the deep ambiguity and late binding of what you just said here!

- Steve


On 10/3/16 1:23 PM, glen ☣ wrote:
I just optimized our code so that drug moving from the heterogeneous 
lobule into the well-mixed body compartment are converted from objects 
to integer counts.  That cut execution time by several orders of 
magnitude... but each experiment still takes ~10-12 hours. 




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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-03 Thread Robert Wall

I often like *Counterpunch *for their opinion.  And they make an
excellent point here
,
as you say, Glen.

My contention for who should be in the presidential debates is that perhaps
notwithstanding the *FiveThirtyEight *simulation results, any candidate on
ballots in *enough *states--where it is possible for them to accrue 270
electoral votes--should be included in the presidential debates.  So under
this criterion, I would argue for the inclusion of both Gary Johnson and
Jill Stein.  If they are not in those debates, it is argued that it is
near-impossible for them to win much in the Electoral College.

Now, Nate Silver makes a different argument for an event with
non-zero probability, but one that would involve Congress making the final
choice.  I mean forget for a moment what success any third-party candidate
may have in the Electoral College, this
"not-getting-to-270-by-any-candidate" scenario  is much more likely given
the way the polls are showing an inexplicable near dead heat between the
two major-party candidates. Of course, this would require a good showing by
the third-party candidates in the Electoral College.

Now, under this "possible" scenario, any other third-party candidate would
have to be considered if they win any state; that is if I understand the
rules for this heretofore unprecedented event. So, if this is so, what if a
third-party candidate can win at least one state? And, this possibility
becomes more plausible for a third-party candidate, the more states that
have them on their ballot.  I am, of course, ruling out the effect of the
corporate-controlled media bias for shirking their role of informing the
electorate that there are more than two candidates for consideration and
the strength of the two-party hegemony in this country.  And, I won't get
into the idea of developing an *epistocracy *to replace all of this, but
it's a good discussion to be had ... 😎

According to *Merriam-Webster*, plausible means "appearing worthy of
belief ."  Maybe this year many things that didn't seem credible in the
past could be worthy of our belief this cycle.  I mean, how credible is it
that Donald Trump would have become the GOP's champion candidate for
POTUS?  Everything seems upside-down this time.  Yes?

On Mon, Oct 3, 2016 at 5:29 PM, glen ☣  wrote:

> I liked the point as made by this post:
>
> http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/09/28/debate-nights-biggest
> -lie-was-told-by-lester-holt/
>
> But even if we admit that the only purpose for the peripheral candidates
> is to influence the actual candidates, we still have an argument for
> allowing them to debate.  So, the answer to the question of why they're not
> in the debate really is because it's _bipartisan_ not nonpartisan.  It's
> just another example of how the expressivity of your language biases what
> you do/can understand.
>
> On 10/03/2016 04:21 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
>> Gary Johnson is not plausible.  Didn't 538 say his odds were 2 in 100?
>>
>> On Oct 3, 2016 5:05 PM, "Robert Wall"  wrote:
>>
>>
>>> This simulation ensemble conducted by *FiveThirtyEight *gives some
>>> plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary
>>> Johnson--not
>>> Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some non-zero
>>> plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't
>>> Johnson
>>> in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to find
>>> out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? [image: 🤔][image: 😁]
>>>
>>>
>
> --
> [image: ☣] glen
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-03 Thread Robert Wall

Hi Frank,

I should have used scare quotes.  Sorry.  It is difficult to get your
tongue in cheek to show enough in a forum post.

[image: Inline image 1]

😁

On Mon, Oct 3, 2016 at 5:21 PM, Frank Wimberly  wrote:

> Gary Johnson is not plausible.  Didn't 538 say his odds were 2 in 100?
>
> Frank
>
> Frank Wimberly
> Phone (505) 670-9918
>
> On Oct 3, 2016 5:05 PM, "Robert Wall"  wrote:
>
>> Thanks, Glen.  Quite interesting.
>>
>> This simulation ensemble conducted by *FiveThirtyEight *gives some
>> plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary Johnson--not
>> Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some non-zero
>> plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't Johnson
>> in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to find
>> out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? [image: 🤔][image: 😁]
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Oct 3, 2016 at 1:23 PM, glen [image: ☣] 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Election Update: The Craziest End To The 2016 Campaign Runs Through New
>>> Mexico
>>> http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craz
>>> iest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/
>>>
>>> "In 20,000 simulations of our polls-only model this morning, cases in
>>> which neither Clinton nor Trump received a majority of electoral votes and
>>> Johnson received at least one came up just 30 times, putting the chances at
>>> 0.15 percent."
>>>
>>> I _wish_ I could run 20k simulations in one morning! 8^)  I just
>>> optimized our code so that drug moving from the heterogeneous lobule into
>>> the well-mixed body compartment are converted from objects to integer
>>> counts.  That cut execution time by several orders of magnitude... but each
>>> experiment still takes ~10-12 hours.
>>>
>>> --
>>> [image: ☣] glen
>>>
>>> 
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>
>>
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>
>
> 
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>

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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-03 Thread glen ☣


I liked the point as made by this post:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/09/28/debate-nights-biggest-lie-was-told-by-lester-holt/

But even if we admit that the only purpose for the peripheral candidates is to 
influence the actual candidates, we still have an argument for allowing them to 
debate.  So, the answer to the question of why they're not in the debate really 
is because it's _bipartisan_ not nonpartisan.  It's just another example of how 
the expressivity of your language biases what you do/can understand.

On 10/03/2016 04:21 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:

Gary Johnson is not plausible.  Didn't 538 say his odds were 2 in 100?

On Oct 3, 2016 5:05 PM, "Robert Wall"  wrote:



This simulation ensemble conducted by *FiveThirtyEight *gives some
plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary Johnson--not
Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some non-zero
plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't Johnson
in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to find
out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? 🤔😁




--
☣ glen


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-03 Thread Frank Wimberly

Gary Johnson is not plausible.  Didn't 538 say his odds were 2 in 100?

Frank

Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Oct 3, 2016 5:05 PM, "Robert Wall"  wrote:

> Thanks, Glen.  Quite interesting.
>
> This simulation ensemble conducted by *FiveThirtyEight *gives some
> plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary Johnson--not
> Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some non-zero
> plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't Johnson
> in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to find
> out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? 🤔😁
>
>
> On Mon, Oct 3, 2016 at 1:23 PM, glen ☣  wrote:
>
>> Election Update: The Craziest End To The 2016 Campaign Runs Through New
>> Mexico
>> http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craz
>> iest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/
>>
>> "In 20,000 simulations of our polls-only model this morning, cases in
>> which neither Clinton nor Trump received a majority of electoral votes and
>> Johnson received at least one came up just 30 times, putting the chances at
>> 0.15 percent."
>>
>> I _wish_ I could run 20k simulations in one morning! 8^)  I just
>> optimized our code so that drug moving from the heterogeneous lobule into
>> the well-mixed body compartment are converted from objects to integer
>> counts.  That cut execution time by several orders of magnitude... but each
>> experiment still takes ~10-12 hours.
>>
>> --
>> ☣ glen
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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Re: [FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-03 Thread Robert Wall

Thanks, Glen.  Quite interesting.

This simulation ensemble conducted by *FiveThirtyEight *gives some
plausibility to New Mexico becoming the new Florida with Gary Johnson--not
Jill Stein--playing the part of Ralph Nader.  It also gives some non-zero
plausibility to Gary Johnson becoming the next POTUS.  So why isn't Johnson
in the debates?  Isn't plausibility the real criterion?  We need to find
out more about this potential next POTUS.  Yes? 🤔😁

On Mon, Oct 3, 2016 at 1:23 PM, glen ☣  wrote:

> Election Update: The Craziest End To The 2016 Campaign Runs Through New
> Mexico
> http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craz
> iest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/
>
> "In 20,000 simulations of our polls-only model this morning, cases in
> which neither Clinton nor Trump received a majority of electoral votes and
> Johnson received at least one came up just 30 times, putting the chances at
> 0.15 percent."
>
> I _wish_ I could run 20k simulations in one morning! 8^)  I just optimized
> our code so that drug moving from the heterogeneous lobule into the
> well-mixed body compartment are converted from objects to integer counts.
> That cut execution time by several orders of magnitude... but each
> experiment still takes ~10-12 hours.
>
> --
> [image: ☣] glen
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

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[FRIAM] Hope?

2016-10-03 Thread glen ☣


Election Update: The Craziest End To The 2016 Campaign Runs Through New Mexico
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/

"In 20,000 simulations of our polls-only model this morning, cases in which neither 
Clinton nor Trump received a majority of electoral votes and Johnson received at least 
one came up just 30 times, putting the chances at 0.15 percent."

I _wish_ I could run 20k simulations in one morning! 8^)  I just optimized our 
code so that drug moving from the heterogeneous lobule into the well-mixed body 
compartment are converted from objects to integer counts.  That cut execution 
time by several orders of magnitude... but each experiment still takes ~10-12 
hours.

--
☣ glen


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