Re: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Iya sih pak Hmin,kayak ggrm naik luar biasa.tapi kok hmsp turun terus ya?logikanya kan ikutan dinaikin bareng yg lain krn ini barang langka. Thx Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 12:56:43 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Comment saya... most of player di BEI adalah teknikal trader..jarang sekali yang invest di BEI (kecuali investor kacilakaan) Sokalau mau ada yang beli ..index harus naik (kalau gak naik teknikal jelek kan :D). Kalau index tiap hari turun 5 point aja selama seminggu..siapa sih yang mau tambah duit di BEI. Jadi...cara paling gampang untuk jualan.. Bikin index naik terus(peduli amat pakai UNVR ASII atau TLKM..yang penting naik..bila perlu BATA atau MLBI dibikin AR atas pakai 1 lot) Nah..selama index naik...naikan saham-saham yang mau dijual barang 1-2 point ..kasih volume yang besar. Selama barang bandar belum habis..jangan harap bisa ada koreksi. So..have fun ajajangan terlalu lihat index kalau tidak mau terjebak...focus on stock... siapa tahu anda melihat saham yang mau digoreng demi menjaga status UPTREND dari BEI. Cougar 2009/7/24 boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. *Background: * - IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.*Technically speaking*, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% *Fibonacci Retracement* (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). - Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. *Arguments:* Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-*discount current price*. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya *Bull Rally* di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3),* jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology*, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam *euphoria *market regional. * So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing?* Please share your opinion. (*you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post*). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Elaine, aku lg belajar intermarket. 2 hari lalu setelah NYSE tutup sore hari EURUSD drop secara tiba2 tanpa alasan yg jelas padahal DJI jg baik2 saja. Sepertinya big money sudah siap2. Deflasi dan Pengangguran jadi problem memang iya. Secara analisa teknikal biasa pun keliatan kalau pengangguran di US ada resisten di 11%. Bahkan di michigan sudah 15%. Aku setuju dengan bearish skenariomu. Yang jadi pertanyaan. Bearish 1000 poin angkanya dapat dari mana? Mengapa tidak 500 poin, 1500 poin, etc. Michigan unemployment tops 15%http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm Thank You 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. * * **NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED WITH THIS PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE COUNTRIES RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET. THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn', 'piracy', 'deforestation', etc etc) ** * *Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( * ** * * *3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS* *If the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and North Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One single incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the above issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I
Bls: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
sumpeee..ente bahlul pak DE.whaaaha Dari: JT™ jsxtra...@yahoo.com Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Terkirim: Jumat, 24 Juli, 2009 21:32:29 Judul: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Pertanyaannya, ente abis nonton bokep apa boss ?? Whahaha. Sent From BullBerry® “TA is not 100% Fool Proof, Never Trade Without Stop Order” -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links Yahoo! Mail Kini Lebih Cepat dan Lebih Bersih. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail.yahoo.com
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
*Dividend analysis. Dividend should be capped at the minimum of the risk-free rate (bank deposit), which is around 5% to 6%. There is no point for investors to invest in a stock that gives lower return than a saving rate. I assume (considering the bad condition in the world biggest market, the US) dividends will be severely affected in the 2H09. For example: Bumi is now at 2000. Even they're the biggest coal exporters in Indonesia, with the dividend of 50 then it returns 2.5% (50 div 2000). Let's say the coal price and the export volume are constant, then we better put the money on goverment bonds or other triple AAA corp bonds which will give return much above 10%. But in reality, of course there are bandars who often manipulate the prices. For BUMI, 1000-1200 is a good start for investment. For IDX, -1000 is rough figure for 50% discount of the overall market (worst case) but I suppose at 1400 level, ppl will start buying again, but I dunno, let's see how far it will stretch. Elaine** * On Sun, Jul 26, 2009 at 3:17 PM, vividtrader vividtra...@gmail.com wrote: Elaine, aku lg belajar intermarket. 2 hari lalu setelah NYSE tutup sore hari EURUSD drop secara tiba2 tanpa alasan yg jelas padahal DJI jg baik2 saja. Sepertinya big money sudah siap2. Deflasi dan Pengangguran jadi problem memang iya. Secara analisa teknikal biasa pun keliatan kalau pengangguran di US ada resisten di 11%. Bahkan di michigan sudah 15%. Aku setuju dengan bearish skenariomu. Yang jadi pertanyaan. Bearish 1000 poin angkanya dapat dari mana? Mengapa tidak 500 poin, 1500 poin, etc. Michigan unemployment tops 15%http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm Thank You 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. * * **NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Okay thank you mam 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com *Dividend analysis. Dividend should be capped at the minimum of the risk-free rate (bank deposit), which is around 5% to 6%. There is no point for investors to invest in a stock that gives lower return than a saving rate. I assume (considering the bad condition in the world biggest market, the US) dividends will be severely affected in the 2H09. For example: Bumi is now at 2000. Even they're the biggest coal exporters in Indonesia, with the dividend of 50 then it returns 2.5% (50 div 2000). Let's say the coal price and the export volume are constant, then we better put the money on goverment bonds or other triple AAA corp bonds which will give return much above 10%. But in reality, of course there are bandars who often manipulate the prices. For BUMI, 1000-1200 is a good start for investment. For IDX, -1000 is rough figure for 50% discount of the overall market (worst case) but I suppose at 1400 level, ppl will start buying again, but I dunno, let's see how far it will stretch. Elaine* * * On Sun, Jul 26, 2009 at 3:17 PM, vividtrader vividtra...@gmail.comwrote: Elaine, aku lg belajar intermarket. 2 hari lalu setelah NYSE tutup sore hari EURUSD drop secara tiba2 tanpa alasan yg jelas padahal DJI jg baik2 saja. Sepertinya big money sudah siap2. Deflasi dan Pengangguran jadi problem memang iya. Secara analisa teknikal biasa pun keliatan kalau pengangguran di US ada resisten di 11%. Bahkan di michigan sudah 15%. Aku setuju dengan bearish skenariomu. Yang jadi pertanyaan. Bearish 1000 poin angkanya dapat dari mana? Mengapa tidak 500 poin, 1500 poin, etc. Michigan unemployment tops 15%http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm Thank You 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. * * **NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, vividtrader vividtra...@... wrote: Okay thank you mam 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui elainesu...@... *Dividend analysis. Dividend should be capped at the minimum of the risk-free rate (bank deposit), which is around 5% to 6%. There is no point for investors to invest in a stock that gives lower return than a saving rate. I assume (considering the bad condition in the world biggest market, the US) dividends will be severely affected in the 2H09. For example: Bumi is now at 2000. Even they're the biggest coal exporters in Indonesia, with the dividend of 50 then it returns 2.5% (50 div 2000). Let's say the coal price and the export volume are constant, then we better put the money on goverment bonds or other triple AAA corp bonds which will give return much above 10%. But in reality, of course there are bandars who often manipulate the prices. For BUMI, 1000-1200 is a good start for investment. For IDX, -1000 is rough figure for 50% discount of the overall market (worst case) but I suppose at 1400 level, ppl will start buying again, but I dunno, let's see how far it will stretch. Elaine* * * On Sun, Jul 26, 2009 at 3:17 PM, vividtrader vividtra...@...wrote: Elaine, aku lg belajar intermarket. 2 hari lalu setelah NYSE tutup sore hari EURUSD drop secara tiba2 tanpa alasan yg jelas padahal DJI jg baik2 saja. Sepertinya big money sudah siap2. Deflasi dan Pengangguran jadi problem memang iya. Secara analisa teknikal biasa pun keliatan kalau pengangguran di US ada resisten di 11%. Bahkan di michigan sudah 15%. Aku setuju dengan bearish skenariomu. Yang jadi pertanyaan. Bearish 1000 poin angkanya dapat dari mana? Mengapa tidak 500 poin, 1500 poin, etc. Michigan unemployment tops 15%http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm Thank You 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui elainesu...@... *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Tanya : Bu Elaine Patokan inestasi untuk returnnya kan BOND AAA Bila Bond AAA = 10 %: kalau 8 % maka untuk saham = ? PER nya atau untuk saham = ? % devidennya dari harga saham . titik temunya dimana ? Lukman On Sun, Jul 26, 2009 at 15:49, Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com wrote: *Dividend analysis. Dividend should be capped at the minimum of the risk-free rate (bank deposit), which is around 5% to 6%. There is no point for investors to invest in a stock that gives lower return than a saving rate. I assume (considering the bad condition in the world biggest market, the US) dividends will be severely affected in the 2H09. For example: Bumi is now at 2000. Even they're the biggest coal exporters in Indonesia, with the dividend of 50 then it returns 2.5% (50 div 2000). Let's say the coal price and the export volume are constant, then we better put the money on goverment bonds or other triple AAA corp bonds which will give return much above 10%. But in reality, of course there are bandars who often manipulate the prices. For BUMI, 1000-1200 is a good start for investment. For IDX, -1000 is rough figure for 50% discount of the overall market (worst case) but I suppose at 1400 level, ppl will start buying again, but I dunno, let's see how far it will stretch. Elaine* * * On Sun, Jul 26, 2009 at 3:17 PM, vividtrader vividtra...@gmail.comwrote: Elaine, aku lg belajar intermarket. 2 hari lalu setelah NYSE tutup sore hari EURUSD drop secara tiba2 tanpa alasan yg jelas padahal DJI jg baik2 saja. Sepertinya big money sudah siap2. Deflasi dan Pengangguran jadi problem memang iya. Secara analisa teknikal biasa pun keliatan kalau pengangguran di US ada resisten di 11%. Bahkan di michigan sudah 15%. Aku setuju dengan bearish skenariomu. Yang jadi pertanyaan. Bearish 1000 poin angkanya dapat dari mana? Mengapa tidak 500 poin, 1500 poin, etc. Michigan unemployment tops 15%http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm Thank You 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
EL,apakah bijak jika kita mulai invest di GOLD,sebagai alternative investasi untuk mengantisipasi efek inflasi ?? --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Elaine Sui elainesu...@... wrote: *Dividend analysis. Dividend should be capped at the minimum of the risk-free rate (bank deposit), which is around 5% to 6%. There is no point for investors to invest in a stock that gives lower return than a saving rate. I assume (considering the bad condition in the world biggest market, the US) dividends will be severely affected in the 2H09. For example: Bumi is now at 2000. Even they're the biggest coal exporters in Indonesia, with the dividend of 50 then it returns 2.5% (50 div 2000). Let's say the coal price and the export volume are constant, then we better put the money on goverment bonds or other triple AAA corp bonds which will give return much above 10%. But in reality, of course there are bandars who often manipulate the prices. For BUMI, 1000-1200 is a good start for investment. For IDX, -1000 is rough figure for 50% discount of the overall market (worst case) but I suppose at 1400 level, ppl will start buying again, but I dunno, let's see how far it will stretch.
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
So El where will be the fund flow when that you say happened? In commodity again or other else? Thx --- On Sat, 7/25/09, Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com wrote:From: Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.comSubject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comDate: Saturday, July 25, 2009, 8:38 PM I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah , but here's my comments:1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this:"In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country." - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes. Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed.The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED WITH THIS PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE COUNTRIES RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET. THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn', 'piracy', 'deforestation', etc etc) Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( 3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISISIf the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and North Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One single incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the above issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I believe this has low chance to happen, unless, US default their debts, China gets angry, and tells his little brother Kim to sneak in. (Perhaps I read too much Tom Clancy's book hee ) 4. UNFAVORED ELECTION RESULT Too sensitive to discuss. Pass. I don't know anything.5. H1N1 SWINE FLU OUTBREAK Thailand economy already got hit with this pandemy, and potentially millions can d
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Dear Elaine, Can I ask why you said that reuters is neutral, while bloomberg and cnbc are not so neutral? All these while I thought those 3 sources are pretty credible. Please share your thoughts. Regards, AW -Original Message- From: Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com Date: Sun, 26 Jul 2009 03:38:52 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah , but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes. Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED WITH THIS PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE COUNTRIES RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET. THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn', 'piracy', 'deforestation', etc etc) Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( 3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS If the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and North Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One single incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the above issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I believe this has low chance to happen, unless, US default their debts, China gets angry, and tells his little brother Kim to sneak in. (Perhaps I read too much Tom Clancy's book hee ) 4. UNFAVORED ELECTION RESULT Too sensitive to discuss. Pass. I don't know anything. 5. H1N1
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Duluuu sekali saya pernah posting soal US vs China (mungkin ada yang inget, pake english juga), tampaknya China bakalan menang neh. Tapi apakah China bisa tetap berjaya kalau US kolaps,... ini yang bahaya. Paling diusahakan US tetap survive, tapi dibuat miskin kali ya. (sekarang juga udah bisa dibilang miskin, wong utangnya segaban) Iya lah, tektok aja dulu. Sesuaikan strategi dengan besar dana anda. Kalo dananya diatas 100T, boleh lah pusing macam miss EL. Kalo cuman kroco mumet ya trading sajalah... Regards, DE 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com
Re: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Tal! P hmin posting pas weekend gini.. Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 05:56:43 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Comment saya... most of player di BEI adalah teknikal trader..jarang sekali yang invest di BEI (kecuali investor kacilakaan) Sokalau mau ada yang beli ..index harus naik (kalau gak naik teknikal jelek kan :D). Kalau index tiap hari turun 5 point aja selama seminggu..siapa sih yang mau tambah duit di BEI. Jadi...cara paling gampang untuk jualan.. Bikin index naik terus(peduli amat pakai UNVR ASII atau TLKM..yang penting naik..bila perlu BATA atau MLBI dibikin AR atas pakai 1 lot) Nah..selama index naik...naikan saham-saham yang mau dijual barang 1-2 point ..kasih volume yang besar. Selama barang bandar belum habis..jangan harap bisa ada koreksi. So..have fun ajajangan terlalu lihat index kalau tidak mau terjebak...focus on stock... siapa tahu anda melihat saham yang mau digoreng demi menjaga status UPTREND dari BEI. Cougar 2009/7/24 boyz m457...@yahoo. mailto:m457...@yahoo.com.sg com.sg Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional * To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) * To change settings via email: mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Emang ritel signifikan di bej pak?? Saya rasa dengan hanya 270 rb an nasabah dibanding dana reksadana yang puluhan triliun tidak ada apa2nya.. Nd Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -Original Message- From: Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 12:56:43 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Comment saya... most of player di BEI adalah teknikal trader..jarang sekali yang invest di BEI (kecuali investor kacilakaan) Sokalau mau ada yang beli ..index harus naik (kalau gak naik teknikal jelek kan :D). Kalau index tiap hari turun 5 point aja selama seminggu..siapa sih yang mau tambah duit di BEI. Jadi...cara paling gampang untuk jualan.. Bikin index naik terus(peduli amat pakai UNVR ASII atau TLKM..yang penting naik..bila perlu BATA atau MLBI dibikin AR atas pakai 1 lot) Nah..selama index naik...naikan saham-saham yang mau dijual barang 1-2 point ..kasih volume yang besar. Selama barang bandar belum habis..jangan harap bisa ada koreksi. So..have fun ajajangan terlalu lihat index kalau tidak mau terjebak...focus on stock... siapa tahu anda melihat saham yang mau digoreng demi menjaga status UPTREND dari BEI. Cougar 2009/7/24 boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. *Background: * - IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.*Technically speaking*, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% *Fibonacci Retracement* (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). - Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. *Arguments:* Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-*discount current price*. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya *Bull Rally* di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3),* jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology*, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam *euphoria *market regional. * So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing?* Please share your opinion. (*you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post*). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
jadi besok reversal ya :e 2009/7/25 Peter Alimin milis...@live.com Tal! P hmin posting pas weekend gini.. Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 05:56:43 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Comment saya... most of player di BEI adalah teknikal trader..jarang sekali yang invest di BEI (kecuali investor kacilakaan) Sokalau mau ada yang beli ..index harus naik (kalau gak naik teknikal jelek kan :D). Kalau index tiap hari turun 5 point aja selama seminggu..siapa sih yang mau tambah duit di BEI. Jadi...cara paling gampang untuk jualan.. Bikin index naik terus(peduli amat pakai UNVR ASII atau TLKM..yang penting naik..bila perlu BATA atau MLBI dibikin AR atas pakai 1 lot) Nah..selama index naik...naikan saham-saham yang mau dijual barang 1-2 point ..kasih volume yang besar. Selama barang bandar belum habis..jangan harap bisa ada koreksi. So..have fun ajajangan terlalu lihat index kalau tidak mau terjebak...focus on stock... siapa tahu anda melihat saham yang mau digoreng demi menjaga status UPTREND dari BEI. Cougar 2009/7/24 boyz m457...@yahoo. mailto:m457...@yahoo.com.sg com.sg Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Kalo lg bullish, teriak2 minta koreksi atau kalo perlu crash skalian.. Pas bearish, teriak2 minta naik.. Hehe.. Ciri2 ktinggalan kereta.. Peace.. Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL, Nyambung Teruuusss...! -Original Message- From: Ajo Ramon ajo.ra...@yahoo.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:18:46 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Guys, kita membutuhkan correction ini supaya bisa tetap make money di market,,,soalnya saya juga lihat bahwa market udah fully retraced 423.6% (perhitungan ini dimulai dr wave 2 dengan highest di 1472 - 1244 periode Jan-Mar). Mau soft atau hard landing yang penting skor akhir ada dimana? Kuncinya adalah level 1888, apakah kuat atau tidak, kalo gak kuat maka bisa tunggu di 1730. All of this assessment is only based on TA. From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Saturday, July 25, 2009 9:21:17 AM Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, artomoro9 artomo...@.. . wrote: Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. mmm... Sekali lagi, mengacu pada 1st and 2nd line: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Diskusi ini tidak dimaksudkan untuk hal negatif, spt: debat kusir, saling memaksakan opini ataupun memprovokasi. Tapi, dimaksudkan untuk membuka wawasan pemikiran, sehingga kita bisa lebih bijaksana melihat persoalan dari beberapa sudut pandang, dari beberapa fakta yang ada dan dari beberapa measured assumptions. Sehingga kita-kita lebihcomfort dalam melewati lorong waktu masa depan yang masih gelap/samar2 (atau lebih objektif dalam mengambil keputusan investasi/trading) . Let's see other perspectives, let's see other facts, let's see other assumptions ... nanti setelah itu, each one of us, pada akhirnya akan bisa menyimpulkan untuk dirinya masing-masing. .. apakah Soft landing, Hard landing, ... or NO landing at all :) Salam,
Re: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Sependapat pak. Di BEI investor nya mostly HF/FM, reksadana dan danapensiun. Retail mostly sebagai greese yang membuat harga harian naik/turun. Tentang skenario IHSG Q3, feeling saja, akan softlanding sd 18-19xx. Q4 bullish lagi untuk window dressing ke 25-28xx. Cheers Sent from my BearBerry® powered by ISAT TLKM -Original Message- From: ND nyariduit...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 06:35:46 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Emang ritel signifikan di bej pak?? Saya rasa dengan hanya 270 rb an nasabah dibanding dana reksadana yang puluhan triliun tidak ada apa2nya.. Nd Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -Original Message- From: Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 12:56:43 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Comment saya... most of player di BEI adalah teknikal trader..jarang sekali yang invest di BEI (kecuali investor kacilakaan) Sokalau mau ada yang beli ..index harus naik (kalau gak naik teknikal jelek kan :D). Kalau index tiap hari turun 5 point aja selama seminggu..siapa sih yang mau tambah duit di BEI. Jadi...cara paling gampang untuk jualan.. Bikin index naik terus(peduli amat pakai UNVR ASII atau TLKM..yang penting naik..bila perlu BATA atau MLBI dibikin AR atas pakai 1 lot) Nah..selama index naik...naikan saham-saham yang mau dijual barang 1-2 point ..kasih volume yang besar. Selama barang bandar belum habis..jangan harap bisa ada koreksi. So..have fun ajajangan terlalu lihat index kalau tidak mau terjebak...focus on stock... siapa tahu anda melihat saham yang mau digoreng demi menjaga status UPTREND dari BEI. Cougar 2009/7/24 boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. *Background: * - IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.*Technically speaking*, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% *Fibonacci Retracement* (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). - Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. *Arguments:* Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-*discount current price*. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya *Bull Rally* di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3),* jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology*, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam *euphoria *market regional. * So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing?* Please share your opinion. (*you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post*). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Tambahan lagi nih. Jumat 31 July ada pengumuman GDP US ? Lalu minggu depan akan ada banjir LK 1H 09 dari BEI. Just imaginebagaimana seandainya LK pada bagus semua..dan GDP US unexpected plus ?? Kata unexpected semestinya sudah jadi expected...karena secara bandarmology..harus plus Masih mau koreksi sebelum hari jumat ?? Kalau senin 3 Agustus mungkin lain cerita :D Btwwalaupun index tidak koreksi bukan berarti saham anda aman dari hajaran bandar 2009/7/25 Matt Nowo inf...@gmail.com Sependapat pak. Di BEI investor nya mostly HF/FM, reksadana dan danapensiun. Retail mostly sebagai greese yang membuat harga harian naik/turun. Tentang skenario IHSG Q3, feeling saja, akan softlanding sd 18-19xx. Q4 bullish lagi untuk window dressing ke 25-28xx. Cheers Sent from my BearBerry® powered by ISAT TLKM -- *From*: ND *Date*: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 06:35:46 + *To*: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject*: Re: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Emang ritel signifikan di bej pak?? Saya rasa dengan hanya 270 rb an nasabah dibanding dana reksadana yang puluhan triliun tidak ada apa2nya.. Nd Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -- *From*: Cougar Boy *Date*: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 12:56:43 +0700 *To*: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject*: Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Comment saya... most of player di BEI adalah teknikal trader..jarang sekali yang invest di BEI (kecuali investor kacilakaan) Sokalau mau ada yang beli ..index harus naik (kalau gak naik teknikal jelek kan :D). Kalau index tiap hari turun 5 point aja selama seminggu..siapa sih yang mau tambah duit di BEI. Jadi...cara paling gampang untuk jualan.. Bikin index naik terus(peduli amat pakai UNVR ASII atau TLKM..yang penting naik..bila perlu BATA atau MLBI dibikin AR atas pakai 1 lot) Nah..selama index naik...naikan saham-saham yang mau dijual barang 1-2 point ..kasih volume yang besar. Selama barang bandar belum habis..jangan harap bisa ada koreksi. So..have fun ajajangan terlalu lihat index kalau tidak mau terjebak...focus on stock... siapa tahu anda melihat saham yang mau digoreng demi menjaga status UPTREND dari BEI. Cougar 2009/7/24 boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. *Background: * - IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.*Technically speaking*, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% *Fibonacci Retracement* (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). - Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. *Arguments:* Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-*discount current price* . Tapi melihat baru dimulainya *Bull Rally* di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3),* jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology*, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam *euphoria *market regional. * So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing?* Please share your opinion. (*you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post*). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
mantap makanya dpt gelar jendral 2009/7/24 artomoro9 artomo...@yahoo.co.id Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. Dean Earwicker wrote: Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,.. . Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo. com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, quot;Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail.yahoo.comquot; http://id.mail.yahoo.com%22/
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Memangnya kalo orang teriak2 minta turun atau naik ada efeknya? Saya rasa adalah hak masing2 orang utk menyampaikan pendapatnya baik bullish, bearish maupun sidewayish selama tidak melanggar peraturan milis. So, cool aja tidak perlu emosi ataupun memposting tulisan yg mengejek/menghina siapapun, walaupun itu El. 2009/7/25 hexam...@yahoo.com Kalo lg bullish, teriak2 minta koreksi atau kalo perlu crash skalian.. Pas bearish, teriak2 minta naik.. Hehe.. Ciri2 ktinggalan kereta.. Peace..
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe.. Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan... :) Regards, DE Pada 25 Juli 2009 18:52, Vernichtunggambler@gmail.com menulis: Memangnya kalo orang teriak2 minta turun atau naik ada efeknya? Saya rasa adalah hak masing2 orang utk menyampaikan pendapatnya baik bullish, bearish maupun sidewayish selama tidak melanggar peraturan milis. So, cool aja tidak perlu emosi ataupun memposting tulisan yg mengejek/menghina siapapun, walaupun itu El.
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau ikutan nge tippt DAX silahkan - http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1151952-1-10/dax-tipp-spiel-fuer-montag-den-27-07-2009 Reg dulu di wallstreet-online Tipps nya paling lambat jam 12:00 [+5 jam Jakarta] yg dihitung penutupan DAX-Xetra system pembagian mirip F1 [10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1] 8 teratas dapet point 3 jawara pertama dapet Paket Wein dari Chianti [anno 2001] a' 65,35 Euro [ongkos kirim luar DE tanggung sendiri] Rang sementara nya: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/produkte/dax-tipp.html Viel Spass! --- Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com schrieb am Sa, 25.7.2009: Von: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Betreff: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? An: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Datum: Samstag, 25. Juli 2009, 12:02 Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe. . Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan.. . :) Regards, DE Pada 25 Juli 2009 18:52, Vernichtunggambler.bej@ gmail.com menulis: Memangnya kalo orang teriak2 minta turun atau naik ada efeknya? Saya rasa adalah hak masing2 orang utk menyampaikan pendapatnya baik bullish, bearish maupun sidewayish selama tidak melanggar peraturan milis. So, cool aja tidak perlu emosi ataupun memposting tulisan yg mengejek/menghina siapapun, walaupun itu El.
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.c...@... wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau ikutan nge tippt DAX silahkan - http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1151952-1-10/dax-tipp-spiel-f\ uer-montag-den-27-07-2009 Reg dulu di wallstreet-online Tipps nya paling lambat jam 12:00 [+5 jam Jakarta] yg dihitung penutupan DAX-Xetra system pembagian mirip F1 [10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1] 8 teratas dapet point 3 jawara pertama dapet Paket Wein dari Chianti [anno 2001] a' 65,35 Euro [ongkos kirim luar DE tanggung sendiri] Rang sementara nya: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/produkte/dax-tipp.html Viel Spass! --- Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@... schrieb am Sa, 25.7.2009: Von: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@... Betreff: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? An: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Datum: Samstag, 25. Juli 2009, 12:02 Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe. . Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan.. . :) Regards, DE
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.c...@... wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau ikutan nge tippt DAX silahkan - http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1151952-1-10/dax-tipp-spiel-f\ uer-montag-den-27-07-2009 Reg dulu di wallstreet-online Tipps nya paling lambat jam 12:00 [+5 jam Jakarta] yg dihitung penutupan DAX-Xetra system pembagian mirip F1 [10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1] 8 teratas dapet point 3 jawara pertama dapet Paket Wein dari Chianti [anno 2001] a' 65,35 Euro [ongkos kirim luar DE tanggung sendiri] Rang sementara nya: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/produkte/dax-tipp.html Viel Spass! --- Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@... schrieb am Sa, 25.7.2009: Von: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@... Betreff: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? An: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Datum: Samstag, 25. Juli 2009, 12:02 Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe. . Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan.. . :) Regards, DE
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.sa...@... wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@... Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau ikutan nge tippt DAX silahkan - http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1151952-1-10/dax-tipp-spiel-f\ \ uer-montag-den-27-07-2009 Reg dulu di wallstreet-online Tipps nya paling lambat jam 12:00 [+5 jam Jakarta] yg dihitung penutupan DAX-Xetra system pembagian mirip F1 [10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1] 8 teratas dapet point 3 jawara pertama dapet Paket Wein dari Chianti [anno 2001] a' 65,35 Euro [ongkos kirim luar DE tanggung sendiri] Rang sementara nya: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/produkte/dax-tipp.html Viel Spass! --- Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ schrieb am Sa, 25.7.2009: Von: Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ Betreff: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? An: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Datum: Samstag, 25. Juli 2009, 12:02 Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe. . Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan.. . :) Regards, DE
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Setuju pak.. No offense sama sekali.. It's just joke.. Mhn maaf klo ada misperception.. Lg pula, pndapat sy cnderung bearish (correction) kok.. Thanks.. Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL, Nyambung Teruuusss...! -Original Message- From: Vernichtung gambler@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 18:52:47 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Memangnya kalo orang teriak2 minta turun atau naik ada efeknya? Saya rasa adalah hak masing2 orang utk menyampaikan pendapatnya baik bullish, bearish maupun sidewayish selama tidak melanggar peraturan milis. So, cool aja tidak perlu emosi ataupun memposting tulisan yg mengejek/menghina siapapun, walaupun itu El. 2009/7/25 hexam...@yahoo.com Kalo lg bullish, teriak2 minta koreksi atau kalo perlu crash skalian.. Pas bearish, teriak2 minta naik.. Hehe.. Ciri2 ktinggalan kereta.. Peace..
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Owww...kiraiin yang embah berikan predikat ADVISORY TEAM OB khususnya yang Macro Economy, Fundamental dan Bandarmology adalah pakar² yang bisa memprediksi ke depan... Kalau mau lebih spesific mungkin harus dibedaiin yang mana yang berani berpendapat (sharing) dan yang mana yang keep it to him or herself. Kalau Technical Analist khan ngak bisa salah karena selalu didukung dengan chart :D Pak Boyz cocoknya dengan kategori mana? Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 14:25:30 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.sa...@... wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@... Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau ikutan nge tippt DAX silahkan - http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1151952-1-10/dax-tipp-spiel-f\ \ uer-montag-den-27-07-2009 Reg dulu di wallstreet-online Tipps nya paling lambat jam 12:00 [+5 jam Jakarta] yg dihitung penutupan DAX-Xetra system pembagian mirip F1 [10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1] 8 teratas dapet point 3 jawara pertama dapet Paket Wein dari Chianti [anno 2001] a' 65,35 Euro [ongkos kirim luar DE tanggung sendiri] Rang sementara nya: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/produkte/dax-tipp.html Viel Spass! --- Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ schrieb am Sa, 25.7.2009: Von: Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ Betreff: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? An: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Datum: Samstag, 25. Juli 2009, 12:02 Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe. . Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan.. . :) Regards, DE
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, boyz m457...@... wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau ikutan nge tippt DAX silahkan - http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1151952-1-10/dax-tipp-spiel-f\ \ uer-montag-den-27-07-2009 Reg dulu di wallstreet-online Tipps nya paling lambat jam 12:00 [+5 jam Jakarta] yg dihitung penutupan DAX-Xetra system pembagian mirip F1 [10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1] 8 teratas dapet point 3 jawara pertama dapet Paket Wein dari Chianti [anno 2001] a' 65,35 Euro [ongkos kirim luar DE tanggung sendiri] Rang sementara nya: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/produkte/dax-tipp.html Viel Spass! --- Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ schrieb am Sa, 25.7.2009: Von: Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ Betreff: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? An: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Datum: Samstag, 25. Juli 2009, 12:02 Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe. . Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan.. . :) Regards, DE
[ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence
Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, billy_wta60 billybudima...@... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau ikutan nge tippt DAX silahkan - http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1151952-1-10/dax-tipp-spiel-f\ \ uer-montag-den-27-07-2009 Reg dulu di wallstreet-online Tipps nya paling lambat jam 12:00 [+5 jam Jakarta] yg dihitung penutupan DAX-Xetra system pembagian mirip F1 [10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1] 8 teratas dapet point 3 jawara pertama dapet Paket Wein dari Chianti
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence
pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin. Apa saham2 mining posisinya sama spt sekarang? Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: billy_wta60 billybudima...@yahoo.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 16:31:48 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, billy_wta60 billybudima...@... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Jika boleh saya tambahkan, yang perlu masuk dalam list Mbah atau boyz's list adalah Data Saham dan Bandar Bola karena mereka mampu memberi peringatan dini ke OBers agar tidak menjadi korban dari gerombolan liar (memijam istilah pak Jack Cowok). Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® Whether there is self or not, it's attachment to self that perpetuates suffering. -Original Message- From: [ M S ] mimpi.sa...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 15:35:08 To: Milis OBobrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Owww...kiraiin yang embah berikan predikat ADVISORY TEAM OB khususnya yang Macro Economy, Fundamental dan Bandarmology adalah pakar² yang bisa memprediksi ke depan... Kalau mau lebih spesific mungkin harus dibedaiin yang mana yang berani berpendapat (sharing) dan yang mana yang keep it to him or herself. Kalau Technical Analist khan ngak bisa salah karena selalu didukung dengan chart :D Pak Boyz cocoknya dengan kategori mana? Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 14:25:30 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.sa...@... wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@... Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus. u/ yg mau ikutan nge tippt DAX silahkan - http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1151952-1-10/dax-tipp-spiel-f\ \ uer-montag-den-27-07-2009 Reg dulu di wallstreet-online Tipps nya paling lambat jam 12:00 [+5 jam Jakarta] yg dihitung penutupan DAX-Xetra system pembagian mirip F1 [10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1] 8 teratas dapet point 3 jawara pertama dapet Paket Wein dari Chianti [anno 2001] a' 65,35 Euro [ongkos kirim luar DE tanggung sendiri] Rang sementara nya: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/produkte/dax-tipp.html Viel Spass! --- Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ schrieb am Sa, 25.7.2009: Von: Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ Betreff: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? An: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Datum: Samstag, 25. Juli 2009, 12:02 Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe. . Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan.. . :) Regards, DE
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence
Bill, could you please post one chart to show what you mean by negative divergence, preferably INDF. Thank Before Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: billy_wta60 billybudima...@yahoo.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 16:31:48 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, billy_wta60 billybudima...@... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil nya. lihat deh nr. 21 A. kiri jalan. lapak nya siapa tuh? megah. asri. bagus deh. top markotop. cuma di sana parkir nya memang setengah mampus
3 Agustus 09 Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence
Dah tunggu aja 3 Agustus 09 Bil FTA saya (Feeling Teknikal Analisis) bilang settingan momentum BEI di tanggal itu Alasan : - LK 1H 09 keluar semua... dan HARUS BAGUS - 31 July 09 ada laporan GDP 1H US.. dan HARUS BAGUS 2009/7/25 billy_wta60 billybudima...@yahoo.com Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, billy_wta60 billybudima...@... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming soon tuh. apropos Artomoro. u/ yg suka kelayapan di Kemang Timur mungkin familiär. next time kalo lewat situ lg pelan2 in mobil
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence
Kayanya INDF ga div negatif deh..kan dah pernah koreksi tgl 23 Jun 09 n skrg mulai naik lg.CMIIW From: [ M S ] mimpi.sa...@gmail.com To: Milis OB obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Sunday, July 26, 2009 12:08:57 AM Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence Bill, could you please post one chart to show what you mean by negative divergence, preferably INDF. Thank Before Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT From: billy_wta60 Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 16:31:48 - To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, billy_wta60 billybudiman20@ ... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la
Re: 3 Agustus 09 Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence
Ada apa dg 3aug? Apa spt judgment day market mau terus ke utara ato balik keselatan ? Pls share Thx On 7/26/09, Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com wrote: Dah tunggu aja 3 Agustus 09 Bil FTA saya (Feeling Teknikal Analisis) bilang settingan momentum BEI di tanggal itu Alasan : - LK 1H 09 keluar semua... dan HARUS BAGUS - 31 July 09 ada laporan GDP 1H US.. dan HARUS BAGUS 2009/7/25 billy_wta60 billybudima...@yahoo.com Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, billy_wta60 billybudima...@... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Hehehe you got a point there, tapi yg dimaksud disini pasti yg lain deh. Btw El juga dilawan tuh saat ini, kelihatannya sih suara rame2 yg menang deh di ob ini (pengecualian utk admin/owner hehehe) mainnya keroyokan. 2009/7/25 Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Tidak ada efeknya, kecuali untuk: 1. Artomoro9 2. Jsx-Consultant 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng Ini statistik loh. Menurut pengamatan saya selama di OB, ke empat orang ini adalah sedulur papat. Yang kalima pancernya adalah si BOZZ...hehe.. Pak Edwin, silahkan dijabarkan... :) Regards, DE
Re: 3 Agustus 09 Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence
Jadi tgl. 3 itu yg menentukan arah IHSG selanjutnya secara signifikan ya pak Halim? 2009/7/26 Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com Dah tunggu aja 3 Agustus 09 Bil FTA saya (Feeling Teknikal Analisis) bilang settingan momentum BEI di tanggal itu Alasan : - LK 1H 09 keluar semua... dan HARUS BAGUS - 31 July 09 ada laporan GDP 1H US.. dan HARUS BAGUS 2009/7/25 billy_wta60 billybudima...@yahoo.com Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, billy_wta60 billybudima...@... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top markotop. Also Frederick Schubert ... miss in action. Hehehe... Boyz mah absolutely unqualified untuk masuk hitungan, kerjaannya nyampah and rusuh doang di waroeng mBah. makanya seringan dijewer. Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, Cleopatras Cat cleopatras.cats@ wrote: p DE, sedulur papat artinya apa ya? teman dekat? sahabat dekat? teman karib? atau jawara nya seperti costa nostra? crème de la crème nya OB kan banyak. DE, Boyz, Kang Ocoy. eh. Kang Ocoy coming
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Div
Untuk INDF, MACD yang divergence negative keliatan banget kan, Divergence negatif adalah posisi di mana ketika saham membentuk high baru sedangkan indikator tidak membentuk new high, jadi koreksi 23 juni tidak begitu diperhitungkan Coba lihat link ini http://www.forextradingandeducation.com/images/article_6_macd.gif harga juga sempat koreksi lho, tapi toh tetap turun kan GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, arfian yuddy ayahnyana...@... wrote: Kayanya INDF ga div negatif deh..kan dah pernah koreksi tgl 23 Jun 09 n skrg mulai naik lg.CMIIW From: [ M S ] mimpi.sa...@... To: Milis OB obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Sunday, July 26, 2009 12:08:57 AM Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence Bill, could you please post one chart to show what you mean by negative divergence, preferably INDF. Thank Before Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT From: billy_wta60 Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 16:31:48 - To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, billy_wta60 billybudiman20@ ... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak
Re: 3 Agustus 09 Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence
Pak Hmin, Analis prediksi GDP Q2 US di median -1.5% setelah kontraksi 5.5% di Q1 lalu. Pasar menaruh harapan jika sesuai dengan ekpektasi, maka benar bahwa ekonomi US sudah bottoming di Q2 dan akan mulai positif growth di Q3 atau paling telat Q4. Padahal Bernanke sendiri tidak begitu yakin ya, kalau kita baca dari statement terakhir. Malah Roudini bilang ekonomi akan W recovery dan free fall lagi di late 2011 karena higher commodity price, stagnant credit market etc... -Original Message- From: Cougar Boy boysngi...@gmail.com Date: Sun, 26 Jul 2009 04:53:41 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: 3 Agustus 09 Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios. SOFT landing or HARD? --Beware with Negative Divergence Dah tunggu aja 3 Agustus 09 Bil FTA saya (Feeling Teknikal Analisis) bilang settingan momentum BEI di tanggal itu Alasan : - LK 1H 09 keluar semua... dan HARUS BAGUS - 31 July 09 ada laporan GDP 1H US.. dan HARUS BAGUS 2009/7/25 billy_wta60 billybudima...@yahoo.com Ada yang perhatiin gak, banyak saham blue chip sekarang udah mulai membentuk divergence negatif dengan RSI kebanyakan ? memang secara short term atau 1-2 minggu keliatannya positif, tapi kalau udah 4 minggu biasanya kita lihat ada divergence negatif, Apalagi BDMN tuh, buset RSI, MACD, Stochastic membuat top yang merendah 3 x, sedangkan harga 3 x break high, divergence negatif lha INDF, INTP, UNTR, ASII, BMRI, GGRM, SMGR, PGAS, BBRI, KLBF, Bahkan IHSG kita juga membentuk divergence negative terhadap MACD, RSI, Stochastic, begitu juga dengan LQ45 Yang aneh, saham2 mining tidak divergence negative, ini I lihat mungkin karena koreksi tajam di bulan juni, kalaupun mereka membuat high baru, nampaknya indikator2 ini juga masih akan divergence negative/ pengalaman, pas IHSG sebelum jatuh ke 1,888 dari 2,100 kemarin, kayak gitu juga, banyak yang divergence negatif, tapi karena regional naik, die jadi kependem, pas dow aneh2, divergence bener2 ngehabisin IHSG dari 2,100 ke 1,888 dalam tempo singkat jadi kayaknya divergence yang kayak gini, butuh trigger news, selama masih baik2 aja, ya naik terus, tapi kalau mulai jelek news-nya, bisa dikonfirmasi ama divergence ini, belum lagi ini udah elliot wave 5, tiati aja sih, I gak mau bilang bearish dulu, sekedar ngingetin aja, supaya jangan terlalu terlena dengan kenaikan yang tidak didukung indikator. Jadi bersiap2 aja clear barang, kalau memang ada clear signal juga yang akan mengkonfirmasi divergence ini So, watch the news and sentiment ajalah untuk minggu2 ini, apalagi udah mau masuk agustus, bulan yang scary buat pasar modal,hehehehhee Karena biasanya divergence itu dikonfirmasi : 1. Korporasi emiten 2. Sentiment dari luar Jadi waspadalah dan waspadalah, termasuk I juga, hehehehe GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, billy_wta60 billybudima...@... wrote: Joget ? kayak musik dangdut aja, hahahahahaha, orang pasar modal kan seringnya lagu pop atau jazz, jadi lebih cocok disko daripada joget, hehehhehee GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Itu list yg lain, pak :) List Om DE yg ane tambahin, adalah list oknum-oknum yg kalau 'teriak' bisa bikin pasar atau saham goyang or joget. Hehehe... [:D] Salam, --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, [ M S ] mimpi.saham@ wrote: Pak Boyz included dech...nih postingan mbah: ADVISORY TEAM OB Group Macro Economy: - Sirait Phd - Ekonom Beling Fundamental: - Dean Earwicker - Elaine- Armando - Hendra Bujang - Ocoy - Halim - Irwan Ariston - Yudizz - Meizal - Boyz - Desmon - Adjies Technical: - Alfatih - Jsxtrader - Tasrul - Angelo - Hans - Adit - Ihsg88 - Alx trader - Tirta Bandarmology: - Embah - Oentoeng Rumor/News/researh - Rita Pardede - Felix Liem - Tbumi Miscelaneous - Rully - Fify - Edwin - Bullquote Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m4573rs@ Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 13:53:39 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ane nambahim statistik-nya om DE ... 1. Jsx-Consultant 2. Artomoro9 3. Elaine Sui 4. Oentoeng 5. Jsx Trader 6. Dean Earwicker Potential newcomer 7. Billy TBumi on ANTM... akhir '08. Sekarang dah jarang kasih komando lagi. Kang ocoy dah lama desersi, ane gak masukin list lagi, hehehe. Dulu ada pak BuSur, jendral bintang lima di OB, Master BHSH, lebih lama lagi bertapa-nya, sampai sekarang lom nongol. And juga dulu ada pak Eka Suwandana yang top
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
*I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. * * **NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED WITH THIS PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE COUNTRIES RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET. THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn', 'piracy', 'deforestation', etc etc) ** * *Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( * ** * * *3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS* *If the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and North Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One single incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the above issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I believe this has low chance to happen, unless, US default their debts, China gets angry, and tells his little brother Kim to sneak in. (Perhaps I read too much Tom Clancy's book hee [?] ) * * * *4. UNFAVORED ELECTION RESULT* *Too sensitive to discuss. Pass. I don't know anything. * * * *5. H1N1 SWINE FLU OUTBREAK* *Thailand economy already got hit with this pandemy, and potentially millions can die because of this worldwide. Do not underestimate this issue, live a healthy life today! * * These are my opinions. May or may not happen, God help us all. Don't worry and don't get overreacted like the last time, ada Artomoro bisa kasih so much additional gain, to me and to all of us. [?] Elaine only bisa main saja di OB until end of this
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
El punya rencana ngadain training ga? Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com Date: Sun, 26 Jul 2009 10:38:52 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. * * **NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED WITH THIS PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE COUNTRIES RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET. THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn', 'piracy', 'deforestation', etc etc) ** * *Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( * ** * * *3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS* *If the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and North Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One single incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the above issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I believe this has low chance to happen, unless, US default their debts, China gets angry, and tells his little brother Kim to sneak in. (Perhaps I read too much Tom Clancy's book hee [?] ) * * * *4. UNFAVORED ELECTION RESULT* *Too sensitive to discuss. Pass. I don't know anything. * * * *5. H1N1 SWINE FLU OUTBREAK* *Thailand economy already got hit with this pandemy, and potentially millions can die because of this worldwide. Do
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Brp target elaine utk IDX ? - VF - -Original Message- From: Elaine Sui elainesu...@gmail.com Date: Sun, 26 Jul 2009 10:38:52 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country. - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. * * **NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED WITH THIS PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE COUNTRIES RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET. THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn', 'piracy', 'deforestation', etc etc) ** * *Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( * ** * * *3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS* *If the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and North Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One single incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the above issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I believe this has low chance to happen, unless, US default their debts, China gets angry, and tells his little brother Kim to sneak in. (Perhaps I read too much Tom Clancy's book hee [?] ) * * * *4. UNFAVORED ELECTION RESULT* *Too sensitive to discuss. Pass. I don't know anything. * * * *5. H1N1 SWINE FLU OUTBREAK* *Thailand economy already got hit with this pandemy, and potentially millions can die because of this worldwide. Do not underestimate this issue, live a healthy life today! * * These are my
[ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Kl wave 5 ato masi wave 3 gw kurang ngerti.. (*Bu rokaya tolong share dong..) Gw jg liat bakal koreksi seh.. Disc on.. (*prof JT boleh dong minta chartnya.. ) Tp kl hard ato soft kaga tau deh... Gw pilih middle Hard landing aja.. Heheee... Tp mungkin jg ada skenario lain.. Dibikin panic buying dulukah? Ato sdh panic buying.. Yg pasti gw blm liat panic selling.. Heeehee.. (*mbah scr bandarmologi gmn ya) - VF - -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 13:57:25 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Kalo nubie diijinkan berpendapat, seminggu ke depan IHSG kok cuma naik turun enggak jelas..alasannya karena memang dana asing masih belum ada kesempatan untuk masuk, masih banyak yang ketinggalan keretaselain faktor external, faktor internal pun juga adem ayem --- On Fri, 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg wrote: From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Friday, July 24, 2009, 9:57 AM Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31).Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Pertanyaannya, ente abis nonton bokep apa boss ?? Whahaha. Sent From BullBerry® “TA is not 100% Fool Proof, Never Trade Without Stop Order” -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional * To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) * To change settings via email: mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
haahhahhaahha buset d Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Itu mah hard core prof... Hahaaa... Piktor.net banget neh.. - VF - -Original Message- From: JT™ jsxtra...@yahoo.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:32:29 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Pertanyaannya, ente abis nonton bokep apa boss ?? Whahaha. Sent From BullBerry® “TA is not 100% Fool Proof, Never Trade Without Stop Order” -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional * To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) * To change settings via email: mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Completely agree with you sir... Para peserta di bursa akan diberikan harapan2 rebound - koreksi ringan sampai suatu saat dimana harapan itu akan dihancurkan secara total agar tercipta fear dimana akan terjadi akumulasi besar2an. 2009/7/24 Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?..
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Kalau analisa Billy sih masih sama kayak kemaren soal correction scenarios ini. Lebih ke soft landing kayaknya IHSG pas pula kena itung2an asal I di 2,199, dimana secara itung2an kasar tapi logis, boss udah gain 100 % based on fundamental kan EL lihat ada ancaman deflasi, nuklir, dsb, Sip, itu logis banget, apalagi US defisit 1 trilliun ampe mau cari pinjeman ke UEA, china dll, cetak uang pula, waduhhh, hehehehee untuk technical, I yakin FM macem EL punya Technicalist kelas international, dan banyak dari kita kan berpendapat ini wave 5 betul gak ? target kan kira2 2,200-2,250, kebanyakan analisa technicalist punya pendapat seperti itu sekarang IHSG 2,160, berarti memang sudah limited profit, about 40 point aja dan kalau dihitung kasar, bozz udah make profit 100 % kalau IHSG ke 2,178, Benernya sih udah 300%an kali ya, hehehehe kenapa 100 % ? karena low IHSG 1,089 X 2 = 2,178, anggaplah si boss kena fee jual-beli 0,25 % - 0,35 %, at least untuk dapetin cuan 100 %, bolehlah + 1 % lagi (untuk nutup fee beli jual, bayar SOPIR, wkwkwkwkwkw, listrik, komputer, internet, dll, wkwkwkwkkww) jadi 2,178 X 101 % = 2,199 -- 2,200 So, tinggal 40 point lagi based on technical, itung2 profit bozz, dan fundamental Maaf ya, ini semua cuma itung2an dan analisa newbie banget, bisa aja salah, karena semua prediksi bisa berubah di lapangan HOPE FOR THE BEST and PREPARE FOR THE WORST GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, lim_anasta...@... wrote: haahhahhaahha buset d Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@... Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@... wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
I see rising wedge.. Disklemer on.. - VF - -Original Message- From: billy_wta60 billybudima...@yahoo.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:16:21 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Kalau analisa Billy sih masih sama kayak kemaren soal correction scenarios ini. Lebih ke soft landing kayaknya IHSG pas pula kena itung2an asal I di 2,199, dimana secara itung2an kasar tapi logis, boss udah gain 100 % based on fundamental kan EL lihat ada ancaman deflasi, nuklir, dsb, Sip, itu logis banget, apalagi US defisit 1 trilliun ampe mau cari pinjeman ke UEA, china dll, cetak uang pula, waduhhh, hehehehee untuk technical, I yakin FM macem EL punya Technicalist kelas international, dan banyak dari kita kan berpendapat ini wave 5 betul gak ? target kan kira2 2,200-2,250, kebanyakan analisa technicalist punya pendapat seperti itu sekarang IHSG 2,160, berarti memang sudah limited profit, about 40 point aja dan kalau dihitung kasar, bozz udah make profit 100 % kalau IHSG ke 2,178, Benernya sih udah 300%an kali ya, hehehehe kenapa 100 % ? karena low IHSG 1,089 X 2 = 2,178, anggaplah si boss kena fee jual-beli 0,25 % - 0,35 %, at least untuk dapetin cuan 100 %, bolehlah + 1 % lagi (untuk nutup fee beli jual, bayar SOPIR, wkwkwkwkwkw, listrik, komputer, internet, dll, wkwkwkwkkww) jadi 2,178 X 101 % = 2,199 -- 2,200 So, tinggal 40 point lagi based on technical, itung2 profit bozz, dan fundamental Maaf ya, ini semua cuma itung2an dan analisa newbie banget, bisa aja salah, karena semua prediksi bisa berubah di lapangan HOPE FOR THE BEST and PREPARE FOR THE WORST GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, lim_anasta...@... wrote: haahhahhaahha buset d Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@... Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@... wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Tapi, mungkin optimasi om tasrul tuh yang tahu sebenarnya low average IHSG berapa sih ? --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, billy_wta60 billybudima...@... wrote: Kalau analisa Billy sih masih sama kayak kemaren soal correction scenarios ini. Lebih ke soft landing kayaknya IHSG pas pula kena itung2an asal I di 2,199, dimana secara itung2an kasar tapi logis, boss udah gain 100 % based on fundamental kan EL lihat ada ancaman deflasi, nuklir, dsb, Sip, itu logis banget, apalagi US defisit 1 trilliun ampe mau cari pinjeman ke UEA, china dll, cetak uang pula, waduhhh, hehehehee untuk technical, I yakin FM macem EL punya Technicalist kelas international, dan banyak dari kita kan berpendapat ini wave 5 betul gak ? target kan kira2 2,200-2,250, kebanyakan analisa technicalist punya pendapat seperti itu sekarang IHSG 2,160, berarti memang sudah limited profit, about 40 point aja dan kalau dihitung kasar, bozz udah make profit 100 % kalau IHSG ke 2,178, Benernya sih udah 300%an kali ya, hehehehe kenapa 100 % ? karena low IHSG 1,089 X 2 = 2,178, anggaplah si boss kena fee jual-beli 0,25 % - 0,35 %, at least untuk dapetin cuan 100 %, bolehlah + 1 % lagi (untuk nutup fee beli jual, bayar SOPIR, wkwkwkwkwkw, listrik, komputer, internet, dll, wkwkwkwkkww) jadi 2,178 X 101 % = 2,199 -- 2,200 So, tinggal 40 point lagi based on technical, itung2 profit bozz, dan fundamental Maaf ya, ini semua cuma itung2an dan analisa newbie banget, bisa aja salah, karena semua prediksi bisa berubah di lapangan HOPE FOR THE BEST and PREPARE FOR THE WORST GBU --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, lim_anastasia@ wrote: haahhahhaahha buset d Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwicker@ Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m4573rs@ wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
kalo di liat dari pattern harder harder itu sih biasanya jepun style, ummm miyabi kali ya ...wkwkkwkwkwkwk On Fri, Jul 24, 2009 at 9:32 PM, JT™ jsxtra...@yahoo.com wrote: Pertanyaannya, ente abis nonton bokep apa boss ?? Whahaha. Sent From BullBerry® “TA is not 100% Fool Proof, Never Trade Without Stop Order” -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?..
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. Dean Earwicker wrote: Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,.. . Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo. com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, quot;Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail.yahoo.comquot;
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Menurut saya, masih bisa naik...selama skrg pada takut index koreksi, koreksi tdk akan terjadi. Lihat hari ini, apa yg kurang coba berita bagusnya? Dow keren, oil keren, reg keren, dll. tapi market kita hari ini kuyrang bergairah...OB aja sepi.Jadi bandar kontrarian...yah, melihat keadaan sekarang koq saya masih lihat index akan naik, jadi sependapat dgn jenderal arto. Disc on tentunya...(anyway saya bukan analis, ngapain mesti kasih disc on ya? hehehe) 2009/7/24 artomoro9 artomo...@yahoo.co.id Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. Dean Earwicker wrote: Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,.. . Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo. com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, quot;Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail.yahoo.comquot; http://id.mail.yahoo.com;
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
ya, tunggu reversal sign di chart aja deh. GBU Jend, ditunggu INDFnya di 2,800, hehehehehheee --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, artomoro9 artomo...@... wrote: Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. Dean Earwicker wrote: Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,.. . Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo. com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, quot;Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail.yahoo.comquot;
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Jend Arto, If no one knows what will happen tomorrow? So, just enjoy the game, live the life to the fullest and embrace what the universe will present to us. Sometimes, we are more than enough to what we need necessarily, but we're always deficient to what we desire for... hehehe. From: artomoro9 artomo...@yahoo.co.id To: dean.earwic...@gmail.com dean.earwic...@gmail.com Cc: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Friday, July 24, 2009 10:46:17 PM Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. Dean Earwicker wrote: Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,.. . Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo. com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, quot;Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail. yahoo.com quot;
Bls: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Pada takut ketinggian Pak Rei :) Dari: Rei highwaysta...@gmail.com Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Terkirim: Jumat, 24 Juli, 2009 22:50:18 Judul: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Menurut saya, masih bisa naik...selama skrg pada takut index koreksi, koreksi tdk akan terjadi. Lihat hari ini, apa yg kurang coba berita bagusnya? Dow keren, oil keren, reg keren, dll. tapi market kita hari ini kuyrang bergairah... OB aja sepi. Jadi bandar kontrarian.. .yah, melihat keadaan sekarang koq saya masih lihat index akan naik, jadi sependapat dgn jenderal arto. Disc on tentunya...( anyway saya bukan analis, ngapain mesti kasih disc on ya? hehehe) 2009/7/24 artomoro9 artomo...@yahoo. co.id Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. Dean Earwicker wrote: Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,.. . Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally. ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo. com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, quot;Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail. yahoo.comquot; Lebih aman saat online. Upgrade ke Internet Explorer 8 baru dan lebih cepat yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! agar Anda merasa lebih aman. Gratis. Dapatkan IE8 di sini! http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer/
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Kalau dengan Fibonacci Retracement apakah bisa diprediksi juga kalau seandainya jatuh, kira² berapa? Berita² yang mengkhawatirkan saat ini (mungkin di blow up) Flu Babi dan earning perusahaan² di eropa banyak yang turun cukup significant. Autoshow kali ini BWM, Mercedes dll ngak ikutada relevansinnya ngak ya? Anyway, kalau lagi ngak punya duit makanannya indomie, jadi mudah² target jend a9 INDF 2.800 bisa terwujudhehehe. Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 13:57:25 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Breakpeak Mountain ..also starring : Ron DE Jeremy and Tom Boys Byron. By Vivid intermedia. (C)july 2009. kindly regards. hepisaham *simple and stress free trading style* -Original Message- From: JT™ jsxtra...@yahoo.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:32:29 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Pertanyaannya, ente abis nonton bokep apa boss ?? Whahaha. Sent From BullBerry® “TA is not 100% Fool Proof, Never Trade Without Stop Order” -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional * To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) * To change settings via email: mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Hua ha ha ha ha On Sat, Jul 25, 2009 at 12:38 AM, hepisaham hepisa...@gmail.com wrote: Breakpeak Mountain ..also starring : Ron DE Jeremy and Tom Boys Byron. By Vivid intermedia. (C)july 2009. kindly regards. hepisaham *simple and stress free trading style* -Original Message- From: JT™ jsxtra...@yahoo.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:32:29 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Pertanyaannya, ente abis nonton bokep apa boss ?? Whahaha. Sent From BullBerry® “TA is not 100% Fool Proof, Never Trade Without Stop Order” -Original Message- From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@gmail.com Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:24:31 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,... Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, artomoro9 artomo...@... wrote: Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. mmm... Sekali lagi, mengacu pada 1st and 2nd line: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Diskusi ini tidak dimaksudkan untuk hal negatif, spt: debat kusir, saling memaksakan opini ataupun memprovokasi. Tapi, dimaksudkan untuk membuka wawasan pemikiran, sehingga kita bisa lebih bijaksana melihat persoalan dari beberapa sudut pandang, dari beberapa fakta yang ada dan dari beberapa measured assumptions. Sehingga kita-kita lebih comfort dalam melewati lorong waktu masa depan yang masih gelap/samar2 (atau lebih objektif dalam mengambil keputusan investasi/trading). Let's see other perspectives, let's see other facts, let's see other assumptions ... nanti setelah itu, each one of us, pada akhirnya akan bisa menyimpulkan untuk dirinya masing-masing... apakah Soft landing, Hard landing, ... or NO landing at all :) Salam,
Re: Bls: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Iya sih pak, saya juga takut/was2 kalo sdh ketinggian...naik pun saya rasa juga sdh tidak bisa terlalu banyak tapi ya ujung2nya terserah Bozz [?] 2009/7/24 Charles Atmaja charles_3...@yahoo.com Pada takut ketinggian Pak Rei :) -- *Dari:* Rei highwaysta...@gmail.com *Kepada:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Terkirim:* Jumat, 24 Juli, 2009 22:50:18 *Judul:* Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Menurut saya, masih bisa naik...selama skrg pada takut index koreksi, koreksi tdk akan terjadi. Lihat hari ini, apa yg kurang coba berita bagusnya? Dow keren, oil keren, reg keren, dll. tapi market kita hari ini kuyrang bergairah... OB aja sepi. Jadi bandar kontrarian.. .yah, melihat keadaan sekarang koq saya masih lihat index akan naik, jadi sependapat dgn jenderal arto. Disc on tentunya...( anyway saya bukan analis, ngapain mesti kasih disc on ya? hehehe) 2009/7/24 artomoro9 artomo...@yahoo. co.id artomo...@yahoo.co.id Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. Dean Earwicker wrote: Soft landing, but as time passes by it's getting deeper, ...faster,.. . Uuh... Harder...and harder...then finally ... ... ... Eh, maaf tadi pertanyaannya apa yah?.. On 7/24/09, boyz m457...@yahoo. com.sg wrote: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam, quot;Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT.. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail. yahoo.comquot; http://id.mail.yahoo.com%22/ -- Coba Yahoo! Mail baru yang LEBIH CEPAT. Rasakan bedanya sekarang! http://id.mail.yahoo.com 360.gif
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Ikut sumbang pendapat: 1. World rally sekarang ini lebih karena overliquid dimana banks dan financial institusi yg sudah diinject harus window dressing Lap Keu mereka seakan (sudah) mulai sehat dengan banyak bermain di treasury dan stock market. Stock naik, revenue mereka naik 2. Ini tidak selamanya akan terjadi karena banks sudah harus fokus ke consumer dan lending, bukan hanya stock. Kalau tidak, ekonomi tidak akan bergerak. Tetapi weak ekonomi masih dillema 3. Asumsi saya, sekarang ini market dibuat menarik supaya terjadi panik buying, sehingga dana short term bisa keluar dan digantikan dana fresh dari masyarakat yg masih trauma, supaya suistainability akan terbentuk 4. Saat ini sedang pembentukan opini bahwa hanya stock market yang lebih profitable, dipancing dengan semua berita bagus bersamaan dengan membaiknya laporan keuangan 2Q 5. Masa transisi ini, tentu akan terjadi time lagging dimana dana short term yang keluar bisa saja tidak sepenuhnya tergantikan dengan dengan dana masyarakat. Ini akan menimbulkan koreksi Jadi kesimpulannya, hanya terjadi koreksi. Tetapi pada masa ini tergantung dengan situasi kedepan, jika cuma persepsi yg terbentuk tidak diikuti oleh fundamental yang memburuk, maka boleh dikatakan yg terjadi adalah soft landing dan menuju W recovery di stock market. Tetapi kalau banyak kejadian yg diluar dugaan, bisa U, atau malah L as worst scenario. Maaf kalau salah, soalnya cuma analisa tong kosong nyaring bunyinya. Rgds, Yuta -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 13:57:25 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Pak Yuta, Laporan keuangan yang dimaksud bisa lihat di mana pak? Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: YUTA yuta.tizi...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 03:09:35 To: Obrolan Bandarobrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ikut sumbang pendapat: 1. World rally sekarang ini lebih karena overliquid dimana banks dan financial institusi yg sudah diinject harus window dressing Lap Keu mereka seakan (sudah) mulai sehat dengan banyak bermain di treasury dan stock market. Stock naik, revenue mereka naik 2. Ini tidak selamanya akan terjadi karena banks sudah harus fokus ke consumer dan lending, bukan hanya stock. Kalau tidak, ekonomi tidak akan bergerak. Tetapi weak ekonomi masih dillema 3. Asumsi saya, sekarang ini market dibuat menarik supaya terjadi panik buying, sehingga dana short term bisa keluar dan digantikan dana fresh dari masyarakat yg masih trauma, supaya suistainability akan terbentuk 4. Saat ini sedang pembentukan opini bahwa hanya stock market yang lebih profitable, dipancing dengan semua berita bagus bersamaan dengan membaiknya laporan keuangan 2Q 5. Masa transisi ini, tentu akan terjadi time lagging dimana dana short term yang keluar bisa saja tidak sepenuhnya tergantikan dengan dengan dana masyarakat. Ini akan menimbulkan koreksi Jadi kesimpulannya, hanya terjadi koreksi. Tetapi pada masa ini tergantung dengan situasi kedepan, jika cuma persepsi yg terbentuk tidak diikuti oleh fundamental yang memburuk, maka boleh dikatakan yg terjadi adalah soft landing dan menuju W recovery di stock market. Tetapi kalau banyak kejadian yg diluar dugaan, bisa U, atau malah L as worst scenario. Maaf kalau salah, soalnya cuma analisa tong kosong nyaring bunyinya. Rgds, Yuta -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 13:57:25 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Guys, kita membutuhkan correction ini supaya bisa tetap make money di market,,,soalnya saya juga lihat bahwa market udah fully retraced 423.6% (perhitungan ini dimulai dr wave 2 dengan highest di 1472 - 1244 periode Jan-Mar). Mau soft atau hard landing yang penting skor akhir ada dimana? Kuncinya adalah level 1888, apakah kuat atau tidak, kalo gak kuat maka bisa tunggu di 1730. All of this assessment is only based on TA. From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Saturday, July 25, 2009 9:21:17 AM Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, artomoro9 artomo...@.. . wrote: Bentar lagi pasti chaos cuma karena soft or hard landing. Kok ga ada pilihan soft or hard take off? yakin sudah mau landing? Kalo memang mau landing pasti terjadi, cuma mulai kapan? Brapa lama? Berapa besar? Atau mau lanjut fly to the sky...? ihsg sudah tembus peak nya hepi pada posisi 2168. So what? I m BHSH. Take profit? Monggo saja. No body know for tomorrow. mmm... Sekali lagi, mengacu pada 1st and 2nd line: Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Diskusi ini tidak dimaksudkan untuk hal negatif, spt: debat kusir, saling memaksakan opini ataupun memprovokasi. Tapi, dimaksudkan untuk membuka wawasan pemikiran, sehingga kita bisa lebih bijaksana melihat persoalan dari beberapa sudut pandang, dari beberapa fakta yang ada dan dari beberapa measured assumptions. Sehingga kita-kita lebihcomfort dalam melewati lorong waktu masa depan yang masih gelap/samar2 (atau lebih objektif dalam mengambil keputusan investasi/trading) . Let's see other perspectives, let's see other facts, let's see other assumptions ... nanti setelah itu, each one of us, pada akhirnya akan bisa menyimpulkan untuk dirinya masing-masing. .. apakah Soft landing, Hard landing, ... or NO landing at all :) Salam,
Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Bisa dicari di Internet atau kalau ada akses ke teman yang kerja di perusahaan tsb. Kalau tidak salah, earnings untuk financial sector di US naik 8%, terbesar dibanding yang lain, termasuk mengalahkan technology yg cuma 6% (cmiiw). Earnings Q2 naik karena dibantu juga oleh cost cutting (lay off, close down offices, restructuring some of business unit etc.). Tapi jika dari segi cost sudah tidak bisa disqueeze sedangkan revenue/earning tidak bisa naik atau malah turun, ini yang harus diamati -Original Message- From: [ M S ] mimpi.sa...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 03:29:54 To: Milis OBobrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Pak Yuta, Laporan keuangan yang dimaksud bisa lihat di mana pak? Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: YUTA yuta.tizi...@gmail.com Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2009 03:09:35 To: Obrolan Bandarobrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Ikut sumbang pendapat: 1. World rally sekarang ini lebih karena overliquid dimana banks dan financial institusi yg sudah diinject harus window dressing Lap Keu mereka seakan (sudah) mulai sehat dengan banyak bermain di treasury dan stock market. Stock naik, revenue mereka naik 2. Ini tidak selamanya akan terjadi karena banks sudah harus fokus ke consumer dan lending, bukan hanya stock. Kalau tidak, ekonomi tidak akan bergerak. Tetapi weak ekonomi masih dillema 3. Asumsi saya, sekarang ini market dibuat menarik supaya terjadi panik buying, sehingga dana short term bisa keluar dan digantikan dana fresh dari masyarakat yg masih trauma, supaya suistainability akan terbentuk 4. Saat ini sedang pembentukan opini bahwa hanya stock market yang lebih profitable, dipancing dengan semua berita bagus bersamaan dengan membaiknya laporan keuangan 2Q 5. Masa transisi ini, tentu akan terjadi time lagging dimana dana short term yang keluar bisa saja tidak sepenuhnya tergantikan dengan dengan dana masyarakat. Ini akan menimbulkan koreksi Jadi kesimpulannya, hanya terjadi koreksi. Tetapi pada masa ini tergantung dengan situasi kedepan, jika cuma persepsi yg terbentuk tidak diikuti oleh fundamental yang memburuk, maka boleh dikatakan yg terjadi adalah soft landing dan menuju W recovery di stock market. Tetapi kalau banyak kejadian yg diluar dugaan, bisa U, atau malah L as worst scenario. Maaf kalau salah, soalnya cuma analisa tong kosong nyaring bunyinya. Rgds, Yuta -Original Message- From: boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2009 13:57:25 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. Background: * IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.Technically speaking, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). * Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. Arguments: Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-discount current price. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya Bull Rally di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3), jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam euphoria market regional. So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing? Please share your opinion. (you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
Bullish IHSG... Sideways stock price ..Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Comment saya... most of player di BEI adalah teknikal trader..jarang sekali yang invest di BEI (kecuali investor kacilakaan) Sokalau mau ada yang beli ..index harus naik (kalau gak naik teknikal jelek kan :D). Kalau index tiap hari turun 5 point aja selama seminggu..siapa sih yang mau tambah duit di BEI. Jadi...cara paling gampang untuk jualan.. Bikin index naik terus(peduli amat pakai UNVR ASII atau TLKM..yang penting naik..bila perlu BATA atau MLBI dibikin AR atas pakai 1 lot) Nah..selama index naik...naikan saham-saham yang mau dijual barang 1-2 point ..kasih volume yang besar. Selama barang bandar belum habis..jangan harap bisa ada koreksi. So..have fun ajajangan terlalu lihat index kalau tidak mau terjebak...focus on stock... siapa tahu anda melihat saham yang mau digoreng demi menjaga status UPTREND dari BEI. Cougar 2009/7/24 boyz m457...@yahoo.com.sg Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in here. This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic debate. *Background: * - IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.*Technically speaking*, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% *Fibonacci Retracement* (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). - Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. *Arguments:* Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-*discount current price*. Tapi melihat baru dimulainya *Bull Rally* di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI memasuki wave 3),* jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market psychology*, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam *euphoria *market regional. * So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? Soft Landing or Hard Landing?* Please share your opinion. (*you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of this post*). Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. Salam,
