The Chinese Question and American Labor Historians
The "Chinese Question" and American Labor Historians By Stanford M. Lyman [from New Politics, vol. 7, no. 4 (new series), whole no. 28, Winter 2000] "The general public in this country, unfortunately, does not know or understand the Chinese. This is due partly to the remaining effect of the propaganda against the Chinese during the anti-Chinese agitation here, but primarily to the present prevalence of certain elements in this country, which makes this knowledge and understanding impossible." --J.S. Tow, The Real Chinese in America (1923) "There must be candor in disclosure, honesty in inquiry and resolute determination in attack, or we will fail again, as we have so often failed before." --C. Eric Lincoln, Race, Religion and the Continuing American Dilemma (1999) A SPECTER IS HAUNTING AMERICA'S LABOR HISTORIANS: It is the apparition of the Chinese worker. Long gone from his once insecure place in the fields, factories, industries, mines, and railways on the western frontier, as well as from the shoe and cutlery manufactories where he once served as a short-term strikebreaking laborer in the Northeast, the Asian immigrant from what was once called the Middle Kingdom is today being raised from the ignominious grave to which earlier labor historians had consigned him. But now he serves as a foil in an ongoing debate over whether organized labor's history contains a rich heritage of left-multiracial virtues or a clandestine legacy of right-racist vices. Arrayed on each side of this battlefield of words and documents, accusations and counter-charges, are some of the finest minds and some of the newest Ph.D.-minted members of the historians' profession. Those who seek honor for a non-racist labor heritage are led by the late Herbert Gutman and count among their number Eric Arnesen, Bruce Laurie, Leon Fink, Alan Dawley, Alex Lichtenstein, Daniel Letwin, and numerous other epigoni. Those who examine the patterns and consequences of white working-class racism are a dissident element among labor historians, and include Herbert Hill, Alexander Saxton, David Roediger, Nick Salvatore, Noel Ignatiev, and Gwendolyn Mink, among others. To this force and counterforce must now be added works addressing the role of the Chinese workers and the anti-Chinese movement in the annals of American labor history. In support of the followers of Gutman there has recently appeared Andrew Gyory's Closing the Gate: Race, Politics, and the Chinese Exclusion Act; while several works on labor matters within and affecting America's Chinese by Peter Kwong stand in virtual but unstated opposition to the former's roseate thesis, as do portions of the research conducted by John Kuo Wei Tchen and Herbert Hill. When it comes to bringing the Chinese back into the history of organized labor in America, followers of Gutman must fight on two fronts. For it is an undisputed fact that America's first labor historians took great pride in the role played by organized labor's exclusion of the Chinese worker not only from the United States but also and equally significantly in his (and her) exclusion from trade union membership and eviction from jobs once dearly held. E. Salyer is thus quite correct when she observes, in a blurb written on the back cover of Gyory's book, that "he challenges the standard interpretations which have stood for years and become incorporated into the 'textbook' versions of American history." Although Salyer has exaggerated the extent to which standard textbooks had adopted the outlook of the previous generation's labor annalists, she is referring to Gyory's attempted repudiation of the thesis about Chinese workers and organized labor's response, best represented in a statement made by the much revered Selig Perlman in 1922: "The anti-Chinese agitation in California, culminating as it did in the Exclusion Law passed by Congress in 1882, was doubtless the most important single factor in the history of American labor, for without it the entire country might have been overrun by Mongolian labor and the labor movement might have become a conflict of races instead of one of classes." Whereas Perlman and such other traditional labor historians as John R. Commons and Philip Taft justified the anti-Chinese actions taken by America's incipient trade union movement by treating their only slightly bowdlerized versions of the rhetoric employed by the Sinophobes as part of the Zeitgeist, Gyory -- as the disciple who voluntarily accepted Gutman's challenge that someone accommodate the issues in the Chinese question to the theses central to the "New Labor History" -- insists on denying that white workers and their labor institutions were possessed by a vigorous and pervasive anti-Chinese animus. To simplify his argument, Gyory lumps his opponents into a single category. He passes lightly over Perlman's statement on the matter, and is equally complacent over related comments made by Commons, Taft, and such other labor historians as
Brad's thoughts
I recently received the ECON EXCHANGE, a newsletter of the Econ. Dept. at UC-Berkeley. Much to my surprise, it had a short essay titled "A Long Boom? Commentary on the 'New Economy'" by pen-l's Brad De Long. According to the EXCHANGE, this can be found at www.leadingedge.org, but it's a sign of the limits of the "new economy" that that page can't be found (no DNS Netscape tells me). But something similar can be found at: http://econ161.berkeley.edu/OpEd/virtual/technet/An_E-conomy It's an interesting article. But I think it's notable that Brad focuses totally on the supply side. It's perhaps possible (as Brad notes) that we are now in the beginnings of a new industrial revolution. (Barkley alert!! Barkley alert!! maybe it's a long-wave upswing!!) But what ever happened to aggregate demand? There was a "kink" in labor productivity around 1919, so that faster labor productivity growth continued until the 1970s. But somehow demand failed, causing some unpleasantness during the 1930s. Is Say's Law (on a world scale) going to save us from a replay of the 1930s? Is Alan Greenspan going to do it instead? Can he arrange international coordination of monetary policy going in the reflationary direction, deal with excessive consumer debt, and deal with the rising and increasingly unsustainable US external debt? Will he do it in time to prevent severe recession These are questions that Brad should think about. And they should be asking St. Alan these questions at today's Congressional Canonization. (My spell-checker asked if I wanted to replace "UC-Berkeley" with "Austerely." Does this say something?) Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://clawww.lmu.edu/~JDevine
Re: Brad's thoughts
Is Alan Greenspan going to do it instead? Hope so... Can he arrange international coordination of monetary policy going in the reflationary direction, deal with excessive consumer debt, and deal with the rising and increasingly unsustainable US external debt? Will he do it in time to prevent severe recession? Stay tuned for the next episode of "The Twenty-First Century World Economy." Same time, same channel... More seriously, every single serious *domestic* recession since World War II has come about when the Federal Reserve decides that it needs to (and has the political running room to) fight inflation even at severe output and employment cost. That scenario still seems to be some distance away Brad DeLong
Re: Re: Brad's thoughts
Brad De Long wrote: More seriously, every single serious *domestic* recession since World War II has come about when the Federal Reserve decides that it needs to (and has the political running room to) fight inflation even at severe output and employment cost. That scenario still seems to be some distance away So why did the Fed push up short rates by 75 bp last year, and why are they almost certain to push them up another 50 bp in the next few months? Victor Zarnowitz writes in a recent NBER working paper (which includes the note "The paper benefited greatly from careful reading by Brad De Long..."): On the other hand, those who suspect more systematic instability doubt that the story of the Fed killing each of the recent U.S. expansions is the right and full one. They can point to many domestic and foreign recessions that originated mainly in market developments. Just to take the latest few years, overconfidence, overborrowing, and overinvestment contributed to severe business downturns, financial crises, and incipient deflation overseas, presenting the U.S. economy with new challenges. [...] Much of the time, monetary policies are accommodating, reactive or passive. Even when the Fed seeks to assert active control, its policies operate with long and variable lags. Contrary to what might be called the central bankers' theory of business cycles, economic expansions do not necessarily generate excessive inflation to be countered by tight monetary policies. Also, contrary to some of their critics, the moves of central bankers to raise interest rates to prevent or cool a boom do not necessarily either cause or explain recessions. Zarnowitz has an old-fashioned theory - he cites Kalecki, though it looks like Marx's specter is haunting the paper - that overinvestment followed by disappointment has a lot to do with recessions. The "Fed moves in to cool inflation" story of bizcycles misses that point. You disagree? Doug
Re: Brad's thoughts
Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] 01/26/00 12:20PM I It's an interesting article. But I think it's notable that Brad focuses totally on the supply side. It's perhaps possible (as Brad notes) that we are now in the beginnings of a new industrial revolution. CB: Would this sort of be like a scientific and technological revolution ? What defines a revolution ? Is it a leap instead of a gradual change as in an evolution ? Has there been an industrial evolution for almost two centuries ? What would define a leap today ?
When the Rich Get Even Richer
A series of letters written in response to the "Why Decry Wealth" article published in the NYT two days ago: January 26, 2000 When the Rich Get Even Richer __ To the Editor: W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm ask, "Why Decry the Wealth Gap?" (Op-Ed, Jan. 24). First, inequality is correlated with political instability, one of the strongest findings of cross-national research. Second, inequality is correlated with violent crime. Third, economic inequality is correlated with reduced life expectancy, shown by a large and growing body of public health research. A fourth reason? Simple justice. There is no moral justification for chief executives' being paid hundreds of times more than ordinary employees. Social policies that reduce inequality, like progressive taxation and living wages, should be strengthened and expanded for the health and well-being of those not at the top of the pyramid. RICHARD HUTCHINSON Ogden, Utah, Jan. 24, 2000 The writer is an assistant professor of sociology, Weber State University. * To the Editor: Re "Why Decry the Wealth Gap?" (Op-Ed, Jan. 24): Americans need to make a public choice about the standard of living that we believe the least among us should enjoy. We should be able to reach a consensus -- rough and fractious, to be sure -- on minimal acceptable levels for housing, nutrition, health care, education and other essentials. Most of us will live well above those basic standards, and that likely reflects personal qualities and good fortune rather than injustice. We can also pursue voluntary actions and public policies to make sure that our neighbors remain part of the community by not dropping below those minimal levels. NEIL J. SULLIVAN New York, Jan. 24, 2000 The writer is a professor of public affairs at Baruch College, CUNY. * To the Editor: W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm (Op-Ed, Jan. 24) assert that artificial efforts to curb inequality do more harm than good and that Americans ought to care more about growth than inequality. But this overlooks the fact that people of wealth and privilege are in a position to pass great advantages on to their children, while the children of the poor, lacking in resources, fall further behind. Would Mr. Cox and Mr. Alm consider Social Security an "artificial" attempt to curb inequality? It is one of America's most successful and popular programs. Do they think more good would be done by eliminating it? One by-product of economic inequality is its debilitating effect on social cohesion. Studies show that states and nations with great inequality often have reduced levels of social involvement and trust. These, in turn, are correlated with higher rates of illness and death. GERALD KLOBY Upper Montclair, N.J., Jan. 24, 2000 The writer is coordinator of the Institute for Community Studies, Montclair State University. _ Home | Site Index | Site Search | Forums | Archives | Marketplace Quick News | Page One Plus | International | National/N.Y. | Business | Technology | Science | Sports | Weather | Editorial | Op-Ed | Arts | Automobiles | Books | Diversions | Job Market | Real Estate | Travel Help/Feedback | Classifieds | Services | New York Today Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company [pixel.gif] [pixel.gif]
Re: Re: Re: Brad's thoughts
Brad De Long wrote: More seriously, every single serious *domestic* recession since World War II has come about when the Federal Reserve decides that it needs to (and has the political running room to) fight inflation even at severe output and employment cost. That scenario still seems to be some distance away So why did the Fed push up short rates by 75 bp last year, and why are they almost certain to push them up another 50 bp in the next few months? Trying to offset very powerful wealth effects, I think. But you're right. There is a danger that they will conclude that their mission is to control asset prices rather than maintain a high-pressure economy... Victor Zarnowitz writes in a recent NBER working paper (which includes the note "The paper benefited greatly from careful reading by Brad De Long..."): On the other hand, those who suspect more systematic instability doubt that the story of the Fed killing each of the recent U.S. expansions is the right and full one. They can point to many domestic and foreign recessions that originated mainly in market developments. Just to take the latest few years, overconfidence, overborrowing, and overinvestment contributed to severe business downturns, financial crises, and incipient deflation overseas, presenting the U.S. economy with new challenges. I will take credit for making Victor Zarnowitz explain himself more clearly. I have never yet seen an "overinvestment" cycle: wrong kinds of capital, yes; deficient demand, yes; inflation control, yes; but not "overinvestment"--after all, enough monetary expansion can push interest rates low enough to make *any* investment that is at all productive profitable... Brad Delong -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- "Now 'in the long run' this [way of summarizing the quantity theory of money] is probably true But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. **In the long run** we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again." --J.M. Keynes -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- J. Bradford De Long; Professor of Economics, U.C. Berkeley; Co-Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives. Dept. of Economics, U.C. Berkeley, #3880 Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 (510) 643-4027; (925) 283-2709 phones (510) 642-6615; (925) 283-3897 faxes http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: When the Rich Get Even Richer
If anyone has any references on the relationship between inequality and 'social dysfunction' in the USA (and Australia?), I would be most grateful. Also the dynamic relationship between inequality and growth. I know the list has touched on the latter before, but my filing system is not the best! In case you haven't guessed, it is research grant application time here Down Under! Thanks in anticipation. Martin Watts Stephen E Philion wrote: A series of letters written in response to the "Why Decry Wealth" article published in the NYT two days ago: January 26, 2000 When the Rich Get Even Richer __ To the Editor: W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm ask, "Why Decry the Wealth Gap?" (Op-Ed, Jan. 24). First, inequality is correlated with political instability, one of the strongest findings of cross-national research. Second, inequality is correlated with violent crime. Third, economic inequality is correlated with reduced life expectancy, shown by a large and growing body of public health research. A fourth reason? Simple justice. There is no moral justification for chief executives' being paid hundreds of times more than ordinary employees. Social policies that reduce inequality, like progressive taxation and living wages, should be strengthened and expanded for the health and well-being of those not at the top of the pyramid. RICHARD HUTCHINSON Ogden, Utah, Jan. 24, 2000 The writer is an assistant professor of sociology, Weber State University. * To the Editor: Re "Why Decry the Wealth Gap?" (Op-Ed, Jan. 24): Americans need to make a public choice about the standard of living that we believe the least among us should enjoy. We should be able to reach a consensus -- rough and fractious, to be sure -- on minimal acceptable levels for housing, nutrition, health care, education and other essentials. Most of us will live well above those basic standards, and that likely reflects personal qualities and good fortune rather than injustice. We can also pursue voluntary actions and public policies to make sure that our neighbors remain part of the community by not dropping below those minimal levels. NEIL J. SULLIVAN New York, Jan. 24, 2000 The writer is a professor of public affairs at Baruch College, CUNY. * To the Editor: W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm (Op-Ed, Jan. 24) assert that artificial efforts to curb inequality do more harm than good and that Americans ought to care more about growth than inequality. But this overlooks the fact that people of wealth and privilege are in a position to pass great advantages on to their children, while the children of the poor, lacking in resources, fall further behind. Would Mr. Cox and Mr. Alm consider Social Security an "artificial" attempt to curb inequality? It is one of America's most successful and popular programs. Do they think more good would be done by eliminating it? One by-product of economic inequality is its debilitating effect on social cohesion. Studies show that states and nations with great inequality often have reduced levels of social involvement and trust. These, in turn, are correlated with higher rates of illness and death. GERALD KLOBY Upper Montclair, N.J., Jan. 24, 2000 The writer is coordinator of the Institute for Community Studies, Montclair State University. _ Home | Site Index | Site Search | Forums | Archives | Marketplace Quick News | Page One Plus | International | National/N.Y. | Business | Technology | Science | Sports | Weather | Editorial | Op-Ed | Arts | Automobiles | Books | Diversions | Job Market | Real Estate | Travel Help/Feedback | Classifieds | Services | New York Today Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company [pixel.gif] [pixel.gif] -- Martin Watts Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE) Department of Economics University of Newcastle New South Wales 2308 Australia Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Office: (61) 2 4921-5069 (Phone) Office: (61) 2 4921-6919 (Fax) Home: (61) 2 4981-8124 (Fax) Home: (61) 2 4982-9158 (Phone)
Re: Re: Re: When the Rich Get Even Richer
Michael, Many thanks. Martin Michael Perelman wrote: Martin, here are a couple of sections from my new book Transcending the Economy: On the Potential of Passionate Labor the Wastes of the Market, which is supposed to appear in a couple of months. == Inequality and Growth The study of Alesina and Perotti, covering a sample of 71 countries for the period 1960-85 confirms the negative association between inequality and economic growth (Alesina and Perotti 1996). Derek Bok, who should know about such matters from the vantage point of his previous experience as president of Harvard University, observed: ##The ultimate reason why we cannot ignore unjustified wealth is that it weakens the public's faith in the fairness of the economic system. Such faith is essential if we are to maintain support for the social order and inspire individuals to observe the laws, undertake the duties of citizenship, and extend the minimum of trust toward institutions necessary for communities to prosper. [Bok 1993, p. 231] Samuel Bowles and Herbert Gintis, two prolific graduates of Harvard's doctoral program in economics, offered a few examples of how inequality makes society work less well, noting: ##Inequality fosters conflicts ranging from lack of trust in exchange relationships and incentive problems in the workplace to class warfare and regional clashes. These conflicts are costly to police. Also, they often preclude the cooperation needed for low-cost solutions to coordination problems. Since states in highly unequal societies are often incapable of or have little incentive to solve coordination problems, the result is not only the proliferation of market failures in the private economy, but a reduced capacity to attenuate these failures through public policy. [Bowles and Gintis 1995, p. 409] Bowles and Gintis expanded their analysis of the costs of inequality even further, writing: ##Enforcement activities in the private sector may also be counted as costs of reproducing unequal institutions. Enforcement costs of inequality may thus take the form of high levels of expenditure on work supervision, security personnel, police, prison guards, and the like. Indeed, one might count unemployment itself as one of the enforcement costs of inequality, since the threat of job loss may be necessary to discipline labor in a low-wage economy In the United States in 1987, for example, the above categories of "guard labor" constituted over a quarter of the labor force, and the rate of growth of guard labor substantially outstripped the rate of growth of the labor force in the previous two decades. [Bowles and Gintis 1995, p. 410] A host of recent studies has borne out Tawney's assertion that a more unequal distribution of income causes the economy to grow more slowly (Alesina and Rodrik 1994, p. 485; Alesina and Perotti 1996; Persson and Tabellini 1994). One study estimated that a reduction in inequality from one standard deviation above the mean to one standard deviation below the mean would increase the long-term growth rate by approximately 1.3 percent per annum; however, the measure may be biased toward zero. Using a different technique, the increase would be 2.5 percent (Clarke 1995, p. 423). While a change of a little over a percentage point might not seem very significant, such differences in growth rates compounded over a couple of decades result in a gap in the level of incomes. For example, if in 1960 the Republic of Korea had Brazil's level of inequality, Korean per-capita income in 1985 would have been 15 percent lower, representing a loss of about two years' growth (Birdsall, Ross, and Sabot 1995, p. 496). To my knowledge, the existence of this weak spot in the theory of trickle-down economics has not entered into public debates about inequality. Instead, the bulk of the economics profession echoes the virtues of trickle-down economics, adding that the inordinate rewards that the fortunate few can enjoy will spur the rest to emulate them. For example, Finis Welch, who gave the prestigious Richard T. Ely lecture at the 1999 meeting of the American Economic Association entitled his talk, "In Defense of Inequality." Welch proclaimed: ##I believe inequality is an economic "good" that has received too much bad press Wages play many roles in our economy; along with time worked, they determine labor income, but they also signal relative scarcity and abundance, and with malleable skills, wages provide incentives to render the services that are most highly valued Increasing dispersion can offer increased opportunities for specialization and increased opportunities to mesh skills and activities. [Welch 1999, pp. 1 and 15] == Social Problems as Symptoms of Inequality Earlier, I discussed the inordinate magnitude of the economic losses due to crime, especially to drugs. At the present time, cocaine seems
Re: Re: Re: When the Rich Get Even Richer
Michael, if it is not too inconvenient,please would you send me the full references for those publications. Thanks. Martin Michael Perelman wrote: Martin, here are a couple of sections from my new book Transcending the Economy: On the Potential of Passionate Labor the Wastes of the Market, which is supposed to appear in a couple of months. == Inequality and Growth The study of Alesina and Perotti, covering a sample of 71 countries for the period 1960-85 confirms the negative association between inequality and economic growth (Alesina and Perotti 1996). Derek Bok, who should know about such matters from the vantage point of his previous experience as president of Harvard University, observed: ##The ultimate reason why we cannot ignore unjustified wealth is that it weakens the public's faith in the fairness of the economic system. Such faith is essential if we are to maintain support for the social order and inspire individuals to observe the laws, undertake the duties of citizenship, and extend the minimum of trust toward institutions necessary for communities to prosper. [Bok 1993, p. 231] Samuel Bowles and Herbert Gintis, two prolific graduates of Harvard's doctoral program in economics, offered a few examples of how inequality makes society work less well, noting: ##Inequality fosters conflicts ranging from lack of trust in exchange relationships and incentive problems in the workplace to class warfare and regional clashes. These conflicts are costly to police. Also, they often preclude the cooperation needed for low-cost solutions to coordination problems. Since states in highly unequal societies are often incapable of or have little incentive to solve coordination problems, the result is not only the proliferation of market failures in the private economy, but a reduced capacity to attenuate these failures through public policy. [Bowles and Gintis 1995, p. 409] Bowles and Gintis expanded their analysis of the costs of inequality even further, writing: ##Enforcement activities in the private sector may also be counted as costs of reproducing unequal institutions. Enforcement costs of inequality may thus take the form of high levels of expenditure on work supervision, security personnel, police, prison guards, and the like. Indeed, one might count unemployment itself as one of the enforcement costs of inequality, since the threat of job loss may be necessary to discipline labor in a low-wage economy In the United States in 1987, for example, the above categories of "guard labor" constituted over a quarter of the labor force, and the rate of growth of guard labor substantially outstripped the rate of growth of the labor force in the previous two decades. [Bowles and Gintis 1995, p. 410] A host of recent studies has borne out Tawney's assertion that a more unequal distribution of income causes the economy to grow more slowly (Alesina and Rodrik 1994, p. 485; Alesina and Perotti 1996; Persson and Tabellini 1994). One study estimated that a reduction in inequality from one standard deviation above the mean to one standard deviation below the mean would increase the long-term growth rate by approximately 1.3 percent per annum; however, the measure may be biased toward zero. Using a different technique, the increase would be 2.5 percent (Clarke 1995, p. 423). While a change of a little over a percentage point might not seem very significant, such differences in growth rates compounded over a couple of decades result in a gap in the level of incomes. For example, if in 1960 the Republic of Korea had Brazil's level of inequality, Korean per-capita income in 1985 would have been 15 percent lower, representing a loss of about two years' growth (Birdsall, Ross, and Sabot 1995, p. 496). To my knowledge, the existence of this weak spot in the theory of trickle-down economics has not entered into public debates about inequality. Instead, the bulk of the economics profession echoes the virtues of trickle-down economics, adding that the inordinate rewards that the fortunate few can enjoy will spur the rest to emulate them. For example, Finis Welch, who gave the prestigious Richard T. Ely lecture at the 1999 meeting of the American Economic Association entitled his talk, "In Defense of Inequality." Welch proclaimed: ##I believe inequality is an economic "good" that has received too much bad press Wages play many roles in our economy; along with time worked, they determine labor income, but they also signal relative scarcity and abundance, and with malleable skills, wages provide incentives to render the services that are most highly valued Increasing dispersion can offer increased opportunities for specialization and increased opportunities to mesh skills and activities. [Welch 1999, pp. 1 and 15] == Social Problems as Symptoms of Inequality Earlier, I discussed the inordinate magnitude
Re: Re: Brad's thoughts
I wrote: It's an interesting article. But I think it's notable that Brad focuses totally on the supply side. It's perhaps possible (as Brad notes) that we are now in the beginnings of a new industrial revolution. CB asks: Would this sort of be like a scientific and technological revolution ? What defines a revolution ? Is it a leap instead of a gradual change as in an evolution ? Has there been an industrial evolution for almost two centuries ? What would define a leap today ? revolution = qualitative change = new paradigm = leap = significant structural change evolution = quantitative change = "normal science" = movement on the same level = working within the system, with minor reforms (small structural changes). the problem is that while it's easy to define the difference _in theory_, in practice it's usually hard to tell. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://clawww.lmu.edu/~JDevine
Re: Re: Brad's thoughts
quoting me: Is Alan Greenspan going to do it [avoid the recession/depression] instead? Brad wrote:Hope so... Can he arrange international coordination of monetary policy going in the reflationary direction, deal with excessive consumer debt, and deal with the rising and increasingly unsustainable US external debt? Will he do it in time to prevent severe recession? ... More seriously, every single serious *domestic* recession since World War II has come about when the Federal Reserve decides that it needs to (and has the political running room to) fight inflation even at severe output and employment cost. That scenario still seems to be some distance away you mean like next Tuesday Wednesday, when the FOMC [Fed Open Market Committee] meets? More seriously, I agree with Doug: the Fed is not the only source of recessions. The Fed might have done more to fight the one that began in 1929, but it wasn't the cause. (If I remember correctly, Brad's colleague, Christy Romer, blames the US recession on a fall in consumer spending due to the popping of the stock-market bubble.) BTW, the amount of inflation during the 1920s was nil. Frankly (and when have I not been frank?), I think the cult of St. Alan (i.e., the view that what happens with the US economy is due to Fed policy) is irrational. The current boom has little to do with the Fed's policies, though the Fed could have prevented it, I guess. On the supply side, the falling of the inflation barrier (the NAIRU) to low levels of unemployment, or even the disappearance of the NAIRU, was a total surprise to the Fed (as to everyone else). The Fed was flying blind. (Mixing metaphors, they don't know _when_ to take away the punch bowl, since they don't know when the party is going to get wild. They also don't want to smash the stock market.) On the demand side, real interest rates have been at historically high levels since 1990. This should have deterred private investment, but didn't do so since the government and employers have pushed wages down relative to labor productivity, boosting the rate of profit, which boosts investment. Private consumption has risen due to debt accumulation, led by the rich folks' optimism about the stock market bubble and the poorer folks' need to make ends meet, keep commitments, and stay up with the Joneses in the face of generally stagnant real wages. These forces have swamped the recessionary effects of fiscal austerity (budget surpluses) and the trade deficit -- so far. All of this "bubble economy" has a heavy component of irrational optimism. None of this is due to St. Alan. In fact, the Greenspan cult is partly _based_ on the irrational exuberance (as is the exaggerated emphasis on the stock market). If it's forces outside the Fed that have caused the boom, I see no reason why those same forces couldn't easily cause a recession that the Fed can't handle. Cutting rates doesn't do much if people are squashed under exorbitant debts and if corporations are dominated by idle capacity and rising debt/asset ratios and therefore become pessimistic. (At the ASSA convention, MIT's Ricardo Caballero told us that with lots of unused capacity, the "user cost of capital" and thus interest rates become irrelevant to determining private investment.) Cutting rates may drive the dollar down, helping the net export situation, but that simply broadcasts recession to the rest of the world. Again, I think it's worth reading Wynne Godley (at the Jerome Levy web-site) or Robert Blecker (at the EPI web-site) or Tom Palley (in the most recent issue of CHALLENGE). In a separate missive, Brad writes: ... I have never yet seen an "overinvestment" cycle: wrong kinds of capital, yes; deficient demand, yes; inflation control, yes; but not "overinvestment"... Over-investment is defined as too much investment from the perspective of capital as a whole: there's either too much to maintain a sufficiently high profit rate or too much to allow a stable growth process and thus the stability of profit income. This "or" corresponds to the two sorts of over-investment that I have found for the rich countries (in my research): (I) A kind of over-investment relative to supply occurs when fast accumulation (associated with high demand for labor-power) pulls up wages, which squeezes profits. This is associated with raw material prices being pulled up and excessively high capital/output ratios. It happens in what I call a "labor scarce economy" such as the US economy in the 1960s and helps explain the fall of the profit rate in the late 1960s. Of course, the story is more complicated: expansionary fiscal policy (due to Lyndon Johnson's war against Vietnam and his fear of domestic opposition) kept the boom going for a long time, so that profit-rate-depressing imbalances could accumulate. Bob Brenner's recent book points to another dimension of this: increasing international competition among the rich capitalist countries meant that there was
Re: Re: Re: Brad's thoughts
Would Frank Devine be so kind as to provide the reference for Ricardo Caballero's talk? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Re: Re: Re: Brad's thoughts
Ricardo Caballero "Aggregate Investment: Lessons from the Previous [sic] Millennium" at the ASSA session "In Memoriam: Robert Eisner" (H3) at 10:15 am on January 8, 2000 in Boston (Marriott, Salon A B). It will probably show up in the AEA PAPERS PROCEEDINGS in May 2000. He didn't give us a paper to read. He was talking about Eisner's emphasis on the accelerator theory of aggregate investment. Of all the speakers, he was the least apt to "bury Eisner rather than praise him." Though he was basically neoclassical, he discussed the new wave of very complicated models of investment that imply that having a lot of unused capacity prevents the realization of the neoclassical model. It works out that in practice, the accelerator model that Eisner emphasized wasn't too bad, since it is difficult to torture the data to see interest rates as playing a big role. It was pretty obvious to me, a return to common-sense Keynesianism (as opposed to the so-called "new Keynesianism" of Mankiw et al, which should be called "neo-monetarism"). The standard model has Investment as a partial adjustment of the actual capital stock to the desired one. What happens if the desired capital stock equals (or is below) the actual one? The neoclassical business about the user cost of capital, etc., drops out of the equation. As capacity utilization rate rise, so does investment, along with the role of interest rates. The Eisner session was pretty bad after Caballero's talk, with the exception of Benjamin Friedman's talk (he admitted that the orthodoxy had been repeatedly surprised during the 1990s). Alan Sinai trashed Eisner up and down. At 03:55 PM 1/26/00 -0800, you wrote: Would Frank Devine be so kind as to provide the reference for Ricardo Caballero's talk? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901 Earnest Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://clawww.lmu.edu/~JDevine
Re: Re: When the Rich Get Even Richer
Martin: There is certainly material in the health inequality literature. You might take a look at a look at several articles on the subject in The American Journal of Public Health, September 1997 (Vol 87.#9), especially the article by Ichiro Kawachi et al, on "Social Capital, Income Inequality, and Mortality." Good luck. Joel Blau Martin Watts wrote: If anyone has any references on the relationship between inequality and 'social dysfunction' in the USA (and Australia?), I would be most grateful. Also the dynamic relationship between inequality and growth. I know the list has touched on the latter before, but my filing system is not the best! In case you haven't guessed, it is research grant application time here Down Under! Thanks in anticipation. Martin Watts
Re: Re: Re: When the Rich Get Even Richer
Here is the abstract of the article. Also, be sure to check out Richard Wilkenson's book. Abstracts of Journal Articles Social Capital, Income Inequality,and Mortality I. Kawachi, B.P. Kennedy, K. Lochener, D. Prothrow-Stith American Journal of Public Health,Vol. 87. No. 9:1491-1498, September 1997 Objectives. Recent studies have demonstrated that income inequality is related to mortality rates. It was hypothesized, in this study, that income inequality is related to reduction in social cohesion and that disinvestment in social capital is in turn associated with increased mortality. Methods. In this cross-sectional ecologic study based on data from 39 states, social capital was measured by weighted responses to two items from the General Social Survey: per capita density of membership in voluntary groups in each state and level of social trust, as gauged by the proportion of respondents in each state who believed that people could be trusted. Age-standardized total and cause-specific mortality ram in 1990 were for each state. Results. Income inequality was strongly correlated with both per capita group membership (r = -.46) and lack of social trust (r = .76). In turn, both social trust and group membership were associated with total mortality, as well as rates of death from coronary heart disease, malignant neoplasms, and infant mortality. Conclusions. These data support the notion that income inequality leads to in mortality via disinvestment in social capital. Publications List: Ichiro Kawachi, M.D., Ph.D. and Bruce Kennedy, Ed.D. Joel Blau wrote: Martin: There is certainly material in the health inequality literature. You might take a look at a look at several articles on the subject in The American Journal of Public Health, September 1997 (Vol 87.#9), especially the article by Ichiro Kawachi et al, on "Social Capital, Income Inequality, and Mortality." Good luck. Joel Blau Martin Watts wrote: If anyone has any references on the relationship between inequality and 'social dysfunction' in the USA (and Australia?), I would be most grateful. Also the dynamic relationship between inequality and growth. I know the list has touched on the latter before, but my filing system is not the best! In case you haven't guessed, it is research grant application time here Down Under! Thanks in anticipation. Martin Watts -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The Internet Anti-Fascist: Tuesday, 25 Jan 2000
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The Internet Anti-Fascist: Tuesday, 25 January 2000
Vol. 4, Number 7 (#381)
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CONTENTS
Action Alerts
AFAA #92: Yahoo hosts violent neo-Nazi club
Hate In the News
David Southwell ([Northwestern] Suburban), "Blizzard of protest drives
Hale from Northwestern University," 22 Jan 00
American Jewish Congress (press release), "Duke's Definition of 'Civil
Rights' Organization Means Civil Wrongs for All Minorities in
America," 21 Jan 00
AP, "Man Charged With Running Hate Site," 18 Jan 00
Martha Irvine (AP), "White Supremacist Wants Equal Time," 22 Jan 00
Nancy Burton (MSNBC), "Hate literature spreads again," 16 Jan 00
Amnesty International On the Pinochet Case
"Briefing on the issue of the medical tests requested by the UK Home
Secretary," 7 Jan 00
"It remains a matter of fair process: Statement by Pierre Sané Secretary
General of Amnesty International," 18 Jan 00
"Letter asks for disclosure of medical reports, as new development adds
to concerns on conduct of tests," 20 Jan
What's Worth Checking: 10 stories
--
ANTI-FASCIST ACTION ALERT #92: Yahoo hosts violent neo-Nazi club
A reader writes that Yahoo is hosting a "club" for the fascist World Church
of the Creator, one of whose members, Benjamin Nathaniel Smith went on a
deadly rampage in Illinois, killing one Black and Korean, and wounding
seven Orthodox Jews.
The URL is http://clubs.yahoo.com/clubs/wcotcandwhitepride
The Yahoo Terms of Service state that "1. ACCEPTANCE OF TERMS: Welcome to
Yahoo!. Yahoo provides its service to you, subject to the following Terms
of Service ("TOS") 6. MEMBER CONDUCT: You agree to not use the Service
to: a. upload, post, email or otherwise transmit any Content that is
unlawful, harmful, threatening, abusive, harassing, tortious, defamatory,
vulgar, obscene, libelous, invasive of another's privacy, hateful, or
racially, ethnically or otherwise objectionable; ... k. intentionally or
unintentionally violate any applicable local, state, national or
international law "
Even a brief glance at the club's postings show it attracts violence-
oriented individuals. One member, skinhead_ss_8814, writes "Hobbies:
STOMPIN ON JEW HEADS,HANGING NIGGERS AND BOOT PARTIES !!!" Another,
wp_cool_chick, lists "Hobbies: keeping niggers away! ... Latest News: i
hung a nigger!!"
If you believe that the WOTC club violates the service contract, you can
complain to Yahoo and ask that they stop providing free services for this
fascist organizing.
"Free speech" involves only governments, not individuals or corporations.
Fascists have no more inherent right to Yahoo's services than they have to
a printer who they do not pay or offices on which they pay no rent.
--
HATE IN THE NEWS
Blizzard of protest drives Hale from Northwestern University
David Southwell ([Northwestern] Suburban)
22 Jan 00
White supremacist Matt Hale was greeted with taunts and snowballs during a
recruiting trip to Northwestern University on Friday, forcing Evanston
police to guide the leader of the World Church of the Creator to safety.
Hale claimed to have added five new members to his organization before his
rally on Sheridan Road was cut short by the scuffle with protesters.
As Hale professed his message "of love for white people," he was pelted by
a flurry of snowballs that dislodged his fogged-up glasses.
Demonstrators then closed in around him, shouting profanities and forcing
him across the sidewalk and toward the street before police intervened and
took him into protective custody.
"We will not be rejected just because one person committed a crime," Hale
said, referring to Benjamin Smith, who police say killed two people and
wounded nine others in a racist killing spree last summer. Smith was at one
time a member of the World Church. One of those killed was Ricky Byrdsong,
former basketball coach at the Evanston-based university.
Officers arrested three Chicago men--who were not Northwestern students--
in the crowd of several hundred.
"I'm insulted," said one of the protesters, sophomore Ryan Swift of
Deerfield. "It's disturbing and dangerous. To have a group like this on
campus would be scary."
But Hale claimed he was invited by five Northwestern students who joined
his group, though he refused to divulge names. He called the event a
"success."
"We don't preach white supremacy. We're not interested in oppressing
anyone," Hale said. "We're into separation of races."
A peace gathering was held across campus during Hale's appearance, but many
students gravitated to Hale to send their own message.
Freshman Laura Storz, an Atlanta
new infectious diseases
/* Written 3:20 PM Jan 23, 2000 by [EMAIL PROTECTED] in bitl.ecolog */ /* -- "Emerging infectious diseases of wild animals" -- */ Emerging infectious diseases of wild animals are a threat to biodiversity and human health, according to new report 20 JANUARY 2000 Contact: Peter Daszak [EMAIL PROTECTED] 706-583-0527 University of Georgia Emerging infectious diseases of wild animals are a threat to biodiversity and human health, according to new report ATHENS, Ga. - Newly discovered infectious diseases of free-living wild animals may pose an increasing and significant threat to human health and to global biodiversity, according to a just-published report. While emerging human diseases such as Ebola have grabbed headlines in recent years, similar diseases in wildlife have been understudied, and few regulations concerning exotic disease threats to wild animals or systems for surveillance are in place to prevent their spread. "With a new wave of globalization on an unprecedented level, we don't even know what the greatest threats are in terms of emerging infectious diseases of wildlife," said Dr. Peter Daszak of the University of Georgia's Institute of Ecology and department of botany. "The problem has largely been ignored by policy makers and the threat that these wildlife pose to human, directly or indirectly, should be taken far more seriously." A new report on the scope of the problem was published today in the journal Science. Co-authors of the paper are Dr. Andrew Cunningham of the Zoological Society of London and Dr. Alex Hyatt of the Australian Animal Health Laboratory. Human history is filled with the catastrophic consequences of emerging infectious diseases. The introduction of smallpox, typhus and measles by the conquistadores in the 15th and 16th centuries resulted in a staggering 50 million deaths among native South Americans. Despite suspicious that disease may have caused similar effects on wildlife, systematic studies of emerging infectious diseases of wild animals and their effect on human populations have been few and far between. That all changed with the discovery that wild animals can act as natural reservoirs for diseases that can be extremely virulent among humans. The influenza virus, for example, causes pandemics in humans following the periodic exchange of genes between the viruses of wild and domestic birds, pigs and humans. The report by Daszak and his colleagues points out that many emerging infectious diseases of wildlife are associated with the "spill-over" of pathogens from domestic animals to wildlife populations; with the translocation of host or parasites by human intervention; and with events that have no human or domestic animal involvement, such as global warming or floods. Whatever the reason, these diseases have spread just as human diseases did. "In the same way that Spanish conquistadores introduced smallpox and measles to the Americas, the movement of domestic and other animals during colonization introduced their own pathogens," said Daszak. The first major method of animal disease transmission, "spill-over," refers to the spread of infectious agents from reservoir animal species (often domestic animals) to wildlife. Outbreaks of "spill-over" diseases represent a serious threat to wildlife and domestic animals, Daszak said. For instance, a disease called brucellosis was probably co-introduced to America with cattle. The presence of the disease in bison of Yellowstone National Park is thus considered a potential threat to domesticated cattle grazing at the park's boundaries. The problem has led to considerable tension between conservationists and cattlemen and the shooting by farmers of bison that graze near domesticated herds, even though thre is little evidence of cattle becoming infected, according to Daszak. The translocation of wildlife species - the second method of spreading emerging infectious diseases - occurs often in conservation efforts or for agriculture or hunting. "The introduction of animals to new geographic regions and the co-introduction of their pathogens is a serious problem," said Daszak. "For example, avian malaria on Hawaii is thought to have caused the extinction of a number of native species and was originally introduced with exotic, alien birds." The emergence of infectious diseases without overt human involvement is among the thornier issues facing conservationists. For instance, weather patterns can cause changes in the prevalence of certain parasites that are deadly to some species of sheep. Researchers are finding new diseases even in sites considered pristine. A newly discovered fungal disease has recently been identified as the cause of amphibian mortality in the Central American and Australian rain forests, areas scientists thought were beyond the reach of human environmental change. Whatever the source of infectious wildlife diseases, both human health and global biodiversity are being
biodiversity treaty
The U.S. seems to have won in the biodiversity negotiations. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
