Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Jed Rothwell]

Axil Axil  wrote:

> This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve
> at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The
> processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general
> intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. . . .
>
Ah, I see what comparison this is. This is roughly the number of brain
synapses multiplied by processing speed. Yes, that has been far ahead of
computers for a long time. The raw speed of some computations that do not
require a large memory has been faster in computers since they were
invented, but that is a different metric.

There was a comparison some time ago of computing power versus the human
brain, with an animated graphic showing how long it would take to full Lake
Michigan if you double the amount of water you add each year. See:

"Welcome, Robot Overlords. Please Don't Fire Us?

Smart machines probably won't kill us all—but they'll definitely take our
jobs, and sooner than you think."

http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation

QUOTES:

Suppose it's 1940 and Lake Michigan has (somehow) been emptied. Your job is
to fill it up using the following rule: To start off, you can add one fluid
ounce of water to the lake bed. Eighteen months later, you can add two. In
another 18 months, you can add four ounces. And so on. Obviously this is
going to take a while.

By 1950, you have added around a gallon of water. But you keep soldiering
on. By 1960, you have a bit more than 150 gallons. By 1970, you have 16,000
gallons, about as much as an average suburban swimming pool. . . .

IF YOU HAVE ANY KIND OF BACKGROUND in computers, you've already figured out
that I didn't pick these numbers out of a hat. I started in 1940 because
that's about when the first programmable computer was invented. I chose a
doubling time of 18 months because of a cornerstone of computer history
called Moore's Law, which famously estimates that computing power doubles
approximately every 18 months. And I chose Lake Michigan because its size,
in fluid ounces, is roughly the same as the computing power of the human
brain measured in calculations per second. . . .


- Jed

Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Axil Axil]

more...

http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-web-within-us-minds-and-machines-become-one

There are many new technologies waiting in the wings that will allow this
to happen. Nanotube circuits, for example, are capable of forming extremely
dense three-dimensional arrays of computing elements. A 1 inch cube of
nanotube circuitry would be at least a million times more powerful than the
human brain. Other experimental technologies include three-dimensional
chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA, and quantum
computing. *By 2019, a $1,000 computer will match the processing power of
the human brain–about 20 million billion calculations per second. By 2029,
your average PC will be equivalent to 1,000 human brains.*

On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 9:13 PM, Axil Axil  wrote:

> http://www.jetpress.org/volume1/moravec.htm
>
> *ABSTRACT*
>
> This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve
> at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The
> processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general
> intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. Based on
> extrapolation of past trends and on examination of technologies under
> development, it is predicted that the required hardware will be available
> in cheap machines in the 2020s.
>
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil
>
>
>
> *Between 1981 and 2002, the processing power, hard disk space and RAM in a
> typical desktop computer increased dramatically because of Moore's Law.
> Extrapolating out to the years 2021 and 2041 shows a startling increase in
> computer power. The point where small, inexpensive computers have power
> approaching that of the human brain is just a few decades away.*
>
>
> http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
>
> On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 8:22 PM, Jed Rothwell 
> wrote:
>
>> Axil Axil  wrote:
>>
>> By 2030, the PC will be 1000 times faster then the human brain.
>>>
>>
>> In what sense? Computers have always been much faster than the human
>> brain for some operations. The first computer, ENIAC, was much faster than
>> the humans it replaced.
>>
>> Computers are now becoming faster at pattern recognition, which is
>> remarkable. A few years ago they were still much slower. The human brain
>> does that sort of thing with parallel processing, comparing an image to all
>> images in the brain simultaneously. In the 1980s, this was done on
>> computers with associative memory. Nowadays I assume it is done with
>> parallel processing.
>>
>>
>>
>>> A PC chip will be planted in the brain that will provide health
>>> monitoring, internet communications, added memory storage and computational
>>> power.
>>>
>>
>> I very much doubt that anyone will learn how to routinely and safely
>> implant a PC chip anytime soon! There are experiments with implanted
>> devices in paraplegic patients. They are promising but dangerous. The
>> equipment is barely capable of sorting out signals, and it can only do a
>> few signals, such as "raise arm."
>>
>> - Jed
>>
>>
>

Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Axil Axil]

http://www.jetpress.org/volume1/moravec.htm

*ABSTRACT*

This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve at
the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The
processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general
intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. Based on
extrapolation of past trends and on examination of technologies under
development, it is predicted that the required hardware will be available
in cheap machines in the 2020s.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil



*Between 1981 and 2002, the processing power, hard disk space and RAM in a
typical desktop computer increased dramatically because of Moore's Law.
Extrapolating out to the years 2021 and 2041 shows a startling increase in
computer power. The point where small, inexpensive computers have power
approaching that of the human brain is just a few decades away.*


http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 8:22 PM, Jed Rothwell  wrote:

> Axil Axil  wrote:
>
> By 2030, the PC will be 1000 times faster then the human brain.
>>
>
> In what sense? Computers have always been much faster than the human brain
> for some operations. The first computer, ENIAC, was much faster than the
> humans it replaced.
>
> Computers are now becoming faster at pattern recognition, which is
> remarkable. A few years ago they were still much slower. The human brain
> does that sort of thing with parallel processing, comparing an image to all
> images in the brain simultaneously. In the 1980s, this was done on
> computers with associative memory. Nowadays I assume it is done with
> parallel processing.
>
>
>
>> A PC chip will be planted in the brain that will provide health
>> monitoring, internet communications, added memory storage and computational
>> power.
>>
>
> I very much doubt that anyone will learn how to routinely and safely
> implant a PC chip anytime soon! There are experiments with implanted
> devices in paraplegic patients. They are promising but dangerous. The
> equipment is barely capable of sorting out signals, and it can only do a
> few signals, such as "raise arm."
>
> - Jed
>
>

Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Jed Rothwell]

Axil Axil  wrote:

By 2030, the PC will be 1000 times faster then the human brain.
>

In what sense? Computers have always been much faster than the human brain
for some operations. The first computer, ENIAC, was much faster than the
humans it replaced.

Computers are now becoming faster at pattern recognition, which is
remarkable. A few years ago they were still much slower. The human brain
does that sort of thing with parallel processing, comparing an image to all
images in the brain simultaneously. In the 1980s, this was done on
computers with associative memory. Nowadays I assume it is done with
parallel processing.



> A PC chip will be planted in the brain that will provide health
> monitoring, internet communications, added memory storage and computational
> power.
>

I very much doubt that anyone will learn how to routinely and safely
implant a PC chip anytime soon! There are experiments with implanted
devices in paraplegic patients. They are promising but dangerous. The
equipment is barely capable of sorting out signals, and it can only do a
few signals, such as "raise arm."

- Jed

Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Axil Axil]

By 2030, the PC will be 1000 times faster then the human brain. A PC chip
will be planted in the brain that will provide health monitoring, internet
communications, added memory storage and computational power. It may be
possible to see out of other people's or robot's eyes and hear what other
people's or robot's hear. What sort of apps can be impliment using a direct
brain/chip interface? Get  jump on the app market, time is growing short.

On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 4:28 PM, Axil Axil  wrote:

> Here is another one
>
> http://internetmedicine.com/dermatology-apps/
>
> there are a lot of them.
>
> There will be a time when your personal computing device will monitor your
> body 24/7/365 and report any developing medical problems.
>
> On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 4:19 PM, Axil Axil  wrote:
>
>> This may be the app
>>
>> http://www.lubax.com/
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 4:18 PM, Axil Axil  wrote:
>>
>>> I heard that there is an iphone app using photo comparison logic that
>>> uses a database of skin cancer photos that generates  a 20% better record
>>> for correct skin cancer diag than can be produced by diag from a skin
>>> doctor.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 3:17 PM, Jed Rothwell 
>>> wrote:
>>>
 Bob Cook  wrote:

 Why does such a data base not already exist?—maybe radiologists are
> afraid of being left out of the picture.
>

 This database does exist. It is being constructed now. It will be a
 while before it can be used clinically.

 - Jed


>>>
>>
>

Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Axil Axil]

Here is another one

http://internetmedicine.com/dermatology-apps/

there are a lot of them.

There will be a time when your personal computing device will monitor your
body 24/7/365 and report any developing medical problems.

On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 4:19 PM, Axil Axil  wrote:

> This may be the app
>
> http://www.lubax.com/
>
>
>
> On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 4:18 PM, Axil Axil  wrote:
>
>> I heard that there is an iphone app using photo comparison logic that
>> uses a database of skin cancer photos that generates  a 20% better record
>> for correct skin cancer diag than can be produced by diag from a skin
>> doctor.
>>
>> On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 3:17 PM, Jed Rothwell 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Bob Cook  wrote:
>>>
>>> Why does such a data base not already exist?—maybe radiologists are
 afraid of being left out of the picture.

>>>
>>> This database does exist. It is being constructed now. It will be a
>>> while before it can be used clinically.
>>>
>>> - Jed
>>>
>>>
>>
>

Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Axil Axil]

This may be the app

http://www.lubax.com/



On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 4:18 PM, Axil Axil  wrote:

> I heard that there is an iphone app using photo comparison logic that uses
> a database of skin cancer photos that generates  a 20% better record for
> correct skin cancer diag than can be produced by diag from a skin doctor.
>
> On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 3:17 PM, Jed Rothwell 
> wrote:
>
>> Bob Cook  wrote:
>>
>> Why does such a data base not already exist?—maybe radiologists are
>>> afraid of being left out of the picture.
>>>
>>
>> This database does exist. It is being constructed now. It will be a while
>> before it can be used clinically.
>>
>> - Jed
>>
>>
>

Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Axil Axil]

I heard that there is an iphone app using photo comparison logic that uses
a database of skin cancer photos that generates  a 20% better record for
correct skin cancer diag than can be produced by diag from a skin doctor.

On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 3:17 PM, Jed Rothwell  wrote:

> Bob Cook  wrote:
>
> Why does such a data base not already exist?—maybe radiologists are afraid
>> of being left out of the picture.
>>
>
> This database does exist. It is being constructed now. It will be a while
> before it can be used clinically.
>
> - Jed
>
>

Re: [Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Jed Rothwell]

Bob Cook  wrote:

Why does such a data base not already exist?—maybe radiologists are afraid
> of being left out of the picture.
>

This database does exist. It is being constructed now. It will be a while
before it can be used clinically.

- Jed

[Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Bob Cook]

Why does such a data base not already exist?—maybe radiologists are afraid of 
being left out of the picture.

Bob Cook

From: Axil Axil 
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2016 9:13 AM
To: vortex-l 
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

One advancement is global data "accumulation and application". A demetoligent 
or radiologist automaton will accumulate a global data base which contains all 
the images of shin cancer or the  x-rays associated with a given condition from 
all over the world over many decades. an AI will use that data (billions of 
cases) to make a diagnosis. The diagnosis will be far more accurate based on 
this data base than any experience that a human can provide by many orders of 
magnitude.

On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 11:09 AM, Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com> wrote:

  Ludwik Kowalski <kowals...@mail.montclair.edu> wrote:

We believed that in the next economic system, Communism,  people will be 
receiving goods "according to their needs, not according to their work.


  In the distant future, hundreds of years from now, it is certain that things 
will work out this way, because there will be no need for any human labor, and 
because the technology for things like robots will be in the public domain and 
available to everyone at no cost. I mean that patents will have expired, and 
the technology will be so cheap with automatic replication machines that there 
will be no way to charge anyone for it. Cold fusion may be the first technology 
to reduce a major world-scale expense to zero, but others will surely follow.

  People will eventually have all the food they want for free, or nearly for 
free, from small automated farms. See:

  http://www.freightfarms.com/


  http://www.freightfarms.com/features/


  These may even be built into houses. You see them in some Japanese 
restaurants already. When you order a salad, the waitress cut the lettuce from 
a glass automated greenhouse next to you.

  Two hundred years from now, trying to charge the customer for the use of cold 
fusion or for a new robot would be like trying to charge a person nowadays for 
gathering sticks and making a bonfire, or trying to charge a person for 
gathering rocks on his own property and making a stone wall in Pennsylvania. 
Fire and simple stone construction techniques are millions of years old. No one 
controls them.

  In Pennsylvania, a skilled person can charge a lot of money to gather rocks 
and build a stone retaining wall in a barn. This takes a great deal of skill, 
special tools, mortar and so on. The rocks may come from the property owner's 
own land a few meters away, but you can still charge for the labor. However, in 
the distant future, a large robot will download the skills needed to do this, 
and it will do the job for free. There may still be some incidental expenses 
for mortar, specialized tools, a building permit and so on.

  - Jed

[Vo]:Re: Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs

[Bob Cook]

Just like the single payer insurance system, save money by allowing people to 
have a Federal Reserve Bank Account and receive loans, if qualified, from the 
Fed as a rate a rate equal to 2% above  the 30 year treasury note on the day of 
the loan.  That would make 2% of the monies otherwise loaned to banks at a 
lower rate.  Make the loans for schooling and home purchase at the same rate as 
the 30 year note.  Do away with the bank middle man and the excessive profits 
made by banks.  In other words treat normal biological persons just like 
corporate bank persons are treated with nice low interest rate on Federal 
Reserve Money.  This would be consistent with the equal treatment of persons 
under the constitution at least with respect to loan provisions.  

Also make the natural resources of the country that are sold for development 
purposes, for example oil properties, the property of the people to be shared 
as it is in Alaska.  Provide incentives for the use of the natural resources 
within the country and with a value added tax to supplement the basic income.  
Lastly negotiate the the absolutely unreasonable royalty rate of 12.5 % to a 
fare rate reflecting a 10% margin on costs to create a product that makes use 
of the particular natural resource.  Return taxes to where they were in the 
1950’s on corporate income  from manufacturing outside the country.   Tax the 
use of robots to add to the employment tax base—Medicare and SS funds. 

I can think of many other things to improve the income to support the BI 
government cost.   One would be to provide a single national provider of 
electrical energy at a single national rate.  This would put high cost energy 
sources out of business and encourage efficiency and environmental goodness in 
accordance with government policies.  It would allow the negotiation power of 
the government on obtaining the best rates for the nation and cause the rapid 
phasing out of the expensive grid system.  It would take the place of the 
various state-by-state commissions that negotiate rates and who know what else. 
 Any given state system of providing electricity would be allowed, if it were 
cheaper than the Fed. Govt. rate.  

There’s some progressive if not socialist ideas for consideration.

Bob Cook





From: H LV 
Sent: Monday, February 15, 2016 9:05 AM
To: vortex-l@eskimo.com 
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Intelligent robots threaten millions of jobs



On Mon, Feb 15, 2016 at 10:57 AM, a.ashfield <a.ashfi...@verizon.net> wrote:



  Many prominent European social scientists have now come out in favor of basic 
income - among them two Nobel laureates in economics.  Alaska has a modest UBI 
instituted by a Republican governor, based on the profits from oil from Prudhoe 
Bay.  This amounts to $300 - $2000 a year for every resident of more than six 
months. Switzerland will have a referendum on whether to have a $2,400/month 
UBI in 2015 that looks unlikely to pass.  Perhaps a full UBI could be tried 
experimentally in a State or even a city, substituting for all welfare 
payments, to find out the problems. 


​​If you haven't heard already, the Netherlands and Finland are going to 
conduct basic income trials in the near future.​ ​


  The main objection to UBI is how to pay for it.  Savings could come from 
replacing the present 80 government welfare departments, that has the advantage 
of requiring little administration.  Legalizing drugs to drop the prison 
population. A one payer medical system and of course, getting out of the habit 
of wars.  That alone will not provide enough money, so perhaps changing the 
sales tax to manufacturers, rather than sellers, would capture some of the 
profits from advanced technology instead of it being winner takes all.





​Covering the cost of a BI program will likely require a variety of methods, 
but they can be divided into two main approaches. The funding approach is 
usually considered first. This involves various cost saving measures and 
taxation schemes for the redistribution of wealth. However there is also a 
finance approach which would involve the reform of the central banks. See 
_Economic Sustainability of Basic Income Under a Citizen-centered Monetary 
Regime_
http://www.basicincome.org/bien/pdf/munich2012/Inoue.pdf ​

​Abstract: This paper outlines the historical transformation from 
“administration-centered monetary regimes” to “bank-centered monetary regimes.” 
It reveals three defects in the latter: (1) difficulty overcoming recessions, 
(2) a tendency to create bubbles, and (3) opaque distribution of seigniorage. 
This study proposes a “citizen-centered monetary regime” and confirms that 
providing citizens a basic income financed by seigniorage is sustainable under 
the citizen-centered regime. ​

Harry