MP:
Am I wrong to believe that the various warning signs are starting to
cluster closer and closer together?
>>>
[mbs] yes.
>>
Worries about energy prices.
[mbs] Prices that are still low by historic standards?
Seems like we're confusing consumer griping with
world-historic conjunct
Max Sawicky wrote:
> I suppose if others predict crisis every six months or so, and I never
> predict one, eventually they'll be right and I'll be wrong. What's the
> opposite of a broken clock that's right once a day? Maybe an electric
> clock that keeps the right time until the lights go out.
A dramatic economic reversal would cause considerable hardship at home.
A continuation of the "boom" will cause considerable hardship world wide
along with some benefits. The longer the neo-liberalism continues, the
harder it will be to reverse in the future.
So, I guess that a slowdown would be
>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 09/25/00 01:18PM >>>
I suppose if others predict crisis every six months or so, and I never
predict one, eventually they'll be right and I'll be wrong. What's the
opposite of a broken clock that's right once a day? Maybe an electric
clock that keeps the right time until the
CB: So do you not feel that there will inevitably , eventurally be a danger
to the economic system as a whole ? Are you saying that capitalism might be
eternal, permanent, unending ?
yup.
mbs
>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 09/26/00 12:08PM >>>
CB: So do you not feel that there will inevitably , eventurally be a danger
to the economic system as a whole ? Are you saying that capitalism might be
eternal, permanent, unending ?
Max: yup.
(
CB: An honest person !
I never lie.
mbs
This thread has drifted away a bit from the signs to the portent.
Some signs:
today's paper says that 13 major cities are in danger of overbuilding
commercial real estate.
today's paper says that for PG&E and So. Calif. Edison, two of the
largest corporations in the world, the deficits from thi
Doug, as one of the dour lefties on the list, I would mostly agree with you
but still ...
Couldn't we just as well ask how an 8 year expansion could have done so
little
Your note about the improbability of the expansion with the growing surplus
is worthy of note, but I think we have some id
Jim, the exchange rate certainly helps to hold inflation in check, but I am not
sure how much it encourages imports. Are we on the same page?
Jim Devine wrote:
> At 07:18 PM 9/27/00 -0700, you wrote:
> >Jim, how important is the exchange rate for imports? I suspect that it is
> >a major influe
Max Sawicky strongly reprimands me
> MP:
> Am I wrong to believe that the various warning signs are starting to
> cluster closer and closer together?
> >>>
>
> [mbs] yes.
>
> >>
> Worries about energy prices.
>
> [mbs] Prices that are still low by historic standards?
> Seems like we'
G'day all,
>MP: Am I wrong to believe that the various warning signs are starting to
>cluster closer and closer together?
>
>[mbs] yes.
Me: Nope.
>Worries about energy prices.
>
>[mbs] Prices that are still low by historic standards?
>Seems like we're confusing consumer griping with
>world-hist
At 01:18 PM 09/25/2000 -0400, you wrote:
>Worries about energy prices.
>
>[mbs] Prices that are still low by historic standards?
>Seems like we're confusing consumer griping with
>world-historic conjunctures.
[jd] real energy prices are low, but the increase was pretty steep, akin to
those of th
Max Sawicky wrote:
> Everyday life might be in crisis, but crisis as a danger
> to the economic system is a whole different story. I think
> the term "crisis" should be reserved for the latter, and we
> should keep our eyes open as to its likelihood. I think overuse
> of the term 'crisis' is
Max Sawicky wrote:
>I do have doubts as to the inevitability of crisis,
>but I don't believe we have reached "permanent prosperity,
>. . . " The latter is a separate matter.
>
>Everyday life might be in crisis, but crisis as a danger
>to the economic system is a whole different story. I think
>
CB: So do you not feel that there will inevitably , eventually
be a danger
to the economic system as a whole ? Are you saying that
capitalism might be
eternal, permanent, unending ?
yup.
mbs
===
But Jean-Luc Piccard says that in the 24th century material gain and
economic prerogati
>I never lie.
>mbs
I, on the other hand, always lie (including this sentence).
Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 09/26/00 12:01PM >>>
A question for our more excitable contributors: is an ordinary
business cycle recession a "crisis"?
CB: I forgot to ask, "crisis for whom ?
I find this a little odd. The U.S. economy has its longest expansion
ever, with many strange features that scream out for analysis (how'd
it happen along with a fiscal tightening - shouldn't Keynesians be
talking about this?; the alleged productivity boom, which accelerated
late in the cycle;
[apropos, Thurow on the stock market; full article @
http://www.crn.com/sections/news/top_news.asp?RSID=CRN&ArticleID=20154#RESTO
FSTORY
CRN_ The tech sector is only 8 percent of GNP but plays a much larger role
in the stock market. How much of a danger is that to the economy, especially
if ear
G'day Doug,
Quoth you:
>The overall poverty rate has
>taken a sharp drop, and the black poverty rate is the lowest ever.
>Yeah, I can make a list of all the things that are wrong - from
>incarceration madness to an obscene wealth distribution - but this is
>just a bit too gloomy even for me.
Michael Perelman wrote:
>Also, the more secure job part still seems suspect. Do you have much to go
>on beside the Stephanie Schmit (sp?) paper? Do you have a URL for the
>paper?
It wasn't on the Milken Institute website. But her point was that
perceptions of the general risk of job loss were
Doug:
>"The island" is the place you & I & most PEN-Lers live. It's the
>dominant power in the world. I sometimes think that obsession with
>life off the island is a rationalization for disengagement from what
>goes on on it.
The US is important. My only point is that it has no lessons to offe
Michael Perelman wrote:
>I wasn't predicting, just asking.
And not hoping?
Doug
Warning signs of what? A slowdown in U.S. growth to 3%? To 0%? To
-10%? Is any of it meant to be good news?
Doug
All you fans of crisis: what's the political benefit been of Japan's
decade of stagnation? Of Latin America's two decades of polarization
punctuated by depression, and of Africa's two decades of depression
and social crisis? The next president of Mexico is going to be a
morally conservative ec
>A question for our more excitable contributors: is an ordinary business
>cycle recession a "crisis"?
Not really, though "crisis theory" (a.k.a. Marxian macroeconomics, which
has a heavy infusion from Keynes) helps us understand it.
In a real crisis, either there'd be a major change of course
Doug,
Michael has made the same comment several times, going back a couple of
years at least. And I do think each of us should contribute. I'm going
to make something up, cause I haven't felt smart about any of this.
Gene Coyle
Doug Henwood wrote:
> I find this a little odd. The U.S. economy
I think that Doug's questions are excellent.
The coexistence of low unemployment and low inflation seems to have its
roots in the control of the labor force through access to cheap labor
abroad and cheap imports. I'm not sure about the extent of the
productivity boom, but it may play a role.
Fi
Rob Schaap wrote:
>Yeah, Doug, but is it appropriate to discuss unemployment and poverty in
>such parochial terms?
Yes I know all this. I write about it a lot even. What stuns me,
though, is the apparent inability of left economists to acknowledge
that some half-decent things have happened to
The 10 year data can be interepreted in another way. Let me use the same example
I used earlier. Every member of our department with tenure or tenure track has
been here more than 10 years. Few new jobs are opening up, so the old hang on. A
larger percentage of our courses are taught by part t
>Real wages fell under Reagan; they've risen in the last 5 years. The
>black poverty rate barely budged in the 1980s; it's fallen sharply in
>the 1990s. Despite the constancy of the underheel. But I guess the
>U.S. working class doesn't matter, because they're the bought-off
>dupes of imperial
Doug Henwood wrote:
> Forstater, Mathew wrote:
>
> >This is "as good as it gets." There is a certain kind of fed-upedness that
> >should come with that.
>
> Yup. Which is one of the reasons I keep saying that "good times" may
> be better for left politics than bad times.
That's my assumption
>the pause in the narrowing of the gender gap...
This I do not understand at all...
Brad DeLong
>All you fans of crisis: what's the political benefit been of Japan's
>decade of stagnation? Of Latin America's two decades of polarization
>punctuated by depression, and of Africa's two decades of depression
>and social crisis? The next president of Mexico is going to be a
>morally conservati
>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 09/27/00 02:24PM >>>
I find this a little odd. The U.S. economy has its longest expansion
ever, with many strange features that scream out for analysis (how'd
it happen along with a fiscal tightening - shouldn't Keynesians be
talking about this?; the alleged productivity
Michael P. wrote:
>I think that Doug's questions are excellent.
>
>The coexistence of low unemployment and low inflation seems to have its
>roots in the control of the labor force through access to cheap labor
>abroad and cheap imports. I'm not sure about the extent of the
>productivity boom,
I'm going to risk an idea on Doug's questions, with all humility.
I think the pathetically slow pace of the recovery in the early '90s
played a role. It seemed pretty clear that the economy had turned up, yet
it wasn't growing much and wasn't doing anything for unemployment. At the
same tim
Doug, here are my questions:
1. Isn't this an "exhilirationist" expansion, marked by very high rates of
gross capital formation?
2. As such, doesn't it depend on and reproduce greater income inequality?
(Depend on, because capital goods must be purchased; reproduce because of the
rapid run-up in
Hi again, Doug,
>Yes I know all this. I write about it a lot even.
That's where I get half of it. Just reminding you, is all. Ordered your
new book, too. At current cross-rates, they should be able to complete the
payments out of my estate ...
>What stuns me,
>though, is the apparent inabi
Michael Perelman wrote:
>The 10 year data can be interepreted in another way. Let me use the
>same example
>I used earlier. Every member of our department with tenure or
>tenure track has
>been here more than 10 years. Few new jobs are opening up, so the
>old hang on. A
>larger percentage
Louis Proyect wrote:
>Doug seems to care little about what exists beyond the island,
"The island" is the place you & I & most PEN-Lers live. It's the
dominant power in the world. I sometimes think that obsession with
life off the island is a rationalization for disengagement from what
goes on
Brad DeLong wrote:
>>the pause in the narrowing of the gender gap...
>
>This I do not understand at all...
Theories, none proven as far as I know: 1) welfare reform; 2) growth
in IT jobs, in which women are underrepresented; 3) male employment
is more procyclical than female; 4) weakening of a
Someone recently posted an article from the Wall Street Journal, I believe, to
the effect that if unemployment has declined so little over such a long
expansion, it would be sure to skyrocket with an economic slowdown.
Eugene Coyle wrote:
> I'm going to risk an idea on Doug's questions, with all
Jim, how important is the exchange rate for imports? I suspect that it is a
major influence on exports since U.S. goods compete directly with those from
other similar countries. We have our largest trade imbalance with China.
Chinese wages are so low that an increase in the relative costs would
Rob Schaap:
>I wouldn't begin to know how to save anyone. Jusy having a good look around
>me, is all. Stuff's happening that's never happened before. What else is
>different? The mode of imperialism, I'd say is one. IT, and the
>booster-nonsense surrounding it, is another. America is complet
I don't see the inconsistency. Massive waves of downsizing eliminated lots of good
jobs (instability). Later, those that could clung to their good jobs. The second
stage may not represent instability, but it does not reflect any progress either.
Doug Henwood wrote:
> Michael Perelman wrote:
>
Schaapster,
>That's where I get half of it. Just reminding you, is all. Ordered your
>new book, too. At current cross-rates, they should be able to complete the
>payments out of my estate ...
You should check to make sure the size of your Sutton holdings haven't been
figured into the amount y
At 07:18 PM 9/27/00 -0700, you wrote:
>Jim, how important is the exchange rate for imports? I suspect that it is
>a major influence on exports since U.S. goods compete directly with those
>from other similar countries. We have our largest trade imbalance with
>China. Chinese wages are so low
Michael Perelman wrote:
>Someone recently posted an article from the Wall Street Journal, I believe, to
>the effect that if unemployment has declined so little over such a long
>expansion, it would be sure to skyrocket with an economic slowdown.
I think the argument was about productivity, not u
Louis Proyect wrote:
>The US economy expanded under Reagan's
>Rooseveltian deficit spending, while it expanded just as impressively under
>Clinton's Hooverite economics. What is the constant? Keeping the rest of
>the world under the heel of American corporations.
Real wages fell under Reagan; th
Michael Perelman wrote:
>I don't see the inconsistency. Massive waves of downsizing
>eliminated lots of good
>jobs (instability). Later, those that could clung to their good
>jobs. The second
>stage may not represent instability, but it does not reflect any
>progress either.
The glass is a
I was writing in response to what Gene Coyle mentioned: the anemic rate of growth.
I was merely suggesting that if the fall in unemployment has been so modest -- in
terms of rate of change rather than the absolute value -- over such a long
expansion, than a sharp downward turn could create massive
tember 28, 2000 11:21 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:2435] Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: re warning signs
Michael Perelman wrote:
>Someone recently posted an article from the Wall Street Journal, I believe, to
>the effect that if unemployment has declined so little over such a long
>exp
At 12:20 PM 9/28/00 -0400, you wrote:
>I think the argument was about productivity, not unemployment. But still -
>what are you talking about? The U.S. unemployment rate is the lowest since
>January 1970, and the employment/pop ratio just a bit off being the
>highest in history.
of course, a r
Forstater, Mathew wrote:
>But I do think you have to consider this: the African American overall
>unemployment rate is still at a rate that would be considered a
>recession if it
>held for the overall economy. That means that in the "best of times" the best
>that African Americans can expect is
certain kind of fed-upedness that
should come with that.
Mat
-Original Message-
From: Doug Henwood [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2000 2:10 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L:2452] Re: RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: re warning signs
Forstater, Mathew wrote:
>
Forstater, Mathew wrote:
>This is "as good as it gets." There is a certain kind of fed-upedness that
>should come with that.
Yup. Which is one of the reasons I keep saying that "good times" may
be better for left politics than bad times.
Doug
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