On Thu, Mar 21, 2013 at 11:43 AM, Randy Bush <ra...@psg.com> wrote: >>> In our analysis we associate number of CAs in the global RPKI with >>> the number of distinct IP resource holders. >> sure, and as a proxy for that 'AS Operator', it's not a 1:1 >> correlation to be sure but it should be reasonably close, no? > > do we have anything other than conjecture on which to base estimations > of the numbers of CAs or repositories?
no, since there aren't any CA's in existence... we have, or I have, a model that says: "If you want to publish a ROA, you need to have a CA and you need to run a publication point" To me that means at the least every ASN will have a publication point (and this a roa and a CA). >> I jump to 'CA == REPO == AS-Operator == ASN allocated' because lacking >> any direct data otherwise it seems like a good estimation of numbers. > > great example of conjecture. do you have any fact/measurement-based > idea of how many CAs or repositories there might be five or ten years > from now? the only data i have is the small number of IRR repositories > and whois servers. and i suspect/hope that is a poor estimator. I really don't know how to estimate ASIDE from saying: "it seems reasonable that the repo number will track with assigned ASN" I could be wrong, I could also be corrected if someone else has a compelling story... I don't think it's harmful to say "tracks to ASN numbers" though, if it's too large a number we can be surprised by performance... if it's too small, we can also be surprised :) > but i very strongly doubt that any significant portion of the stub ASs, > 84% of the ASs, will run CAs. they may not. they may use a hosted-model product. I suspect that very soon after 'hosted model' comes into being in the large, the operators of these systems will realize that if someone dislikes one of their customers they can't survive as a business if all other customers also disappear. They will be forced to run the system with unique names/ips for each customer (names at a minimum so they can shift problem children away). So, in the above case... CA == ASN == REPO -chris _______________________________________________ sidr mailing list sidr@ietf.org https://www.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/sidr
