(holy giant text batman!)

On Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 8:50 PM, Oleg Muravskiy <o...@ripe.net> wrote:
>
> Christopher Morrow wrote:
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 21, 2013 at 6:09 AM, Oleg Muravskiy <o...@ripe.net> wrote:
>
>
> Hi Christopher,
>
> Christopher Morrow wrote:
>
>
> Comment 1 (also related with 44): I agree that ISPs may operate caches in
> behalf end-users ASNs, but also I think that more than 1 cache may be
> operated by a single ISP. Imagine a global ASN operator with routers in
> several places. Are they going to have just one master cache? Or are they
> have one or two (backup), and just in one location? Considering this, even
> the 40k clients may be low as worse case IMHO. oops, so... we need to be
> clear in terminology here there are at least: o publication points -
> places/machines AS Operators would make their authoritative information
> available to the world.
>
>
> In our analysis we associate number of CAs in the global RPKI with the
> number of distinct IP resource holders.
>
>
> sure, and as a proxy for that 'AS Operator', it's not a 1:1 correlation to
> be sure but it should be reasonably close, no?
>
>
> Well, I don't see why resource holders should correlate to AS operators.
> Maybe... But see below.
>

ah! I made you look :)

>
> You seem to associate publication points (that directly relate to CAs) with
> AS Operators. Since it's a second place where publication points are
> associated with AS Operators (another is the "RPKI rsync Download Delay
> Modeling" presentation), I wonder if I miss something?
>
>
> most likely you are not... I think I jump to 'CA == REPO == AS-Operator ==
> ASN allocated' because lacking any direct data otherwise it seems like a
> good estimation of numbers. Essentially each ASN allocated is going to be a
> repository that needs to be gathered, right? If there are 10% more
> repositories due to EndSite allocations without an ASN also allocated to
> them I think it's still in the ballpark to say "number of Repos == ASN
> allocation number". I could be wrong.
>
>
> Ok, then I'll continue with mine line of thinking.
> From the RIR stats files that RIRs publish daily we could get the numbers of
> distinct resource holders. They are:
>
> AFRINIC  1310
> APNIC    7957
> ARIN     35380
> LACNIC   4278
>
> For the RIPE NCC you could not get this data from stats files, and the exact
> number is difficult to get because of our model of provider-independent end
> users. But in our registry I could count that it is at least 28912.
> That brings the total to 77837.
>
> Now, these are only the first level resource holders under RIRs. They all
> *must* have their own CAs in order to participate in RPKI. However, many of
> these first-level resource holders are NIRs or LIRs, who distribute
> resources further down to their clients. They could choose to manage their
> clients' RPKI objects within their single CA, but could also give their
> clients  own certificates, creating next level of CA hierarchy. I find it
> difficult to estimate how many LIRs will do this, and for how many of their
> clients. But for RIPE NCC I could see that the number of organisation
> objects in RIPE DB is 70746, and that should be the upper bound of the

cool! so already the number of repositories could be north of 100k
(given the other 5 regions)... 'could be'. In the end I think it'd be
nice of the models (some of them at least) had the ability to see
'what if 5 repos? what if 500? 500,000?' which I think is what Capitan
Kent got to in his last mail.... "yes, it's a parameter we can
twiddle".

Some of the more real-world measurement, which Admiral Bush is after,
is indeed harder to do this with (I think), but knowing behaviour of
the current system should help to extrapolate I would think.

> number of CAs in our region. I don't have that number for other regions, and
> don't know if it's applicable in the same way, especially where NIRs are
> present.
>
> Hope that's clear and helps.
>

yes! thanks.

-chris

> --
> Oleg Muravskiy
> RIPE NCC
>
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