Could I offer Singularity-list readers this intellectual challenge: Give an argument supporting the thesis "Any sort of Singularity is very unlikely to occur in this century."
Even if you don't actually believe the point, consider it a debate-club-style challenge. If there is already something on the web somewhere, could you please point me to it.
I've been eager for this piece ever since I learned of the Singularity concept. I know of the "objections" chapter in Kurzweil's Singularity is Near, the relevant parts of Vinge's seminal essay, as well the ideas of Lanier, Huebner, and a few others, but in all the millions of words out there I can't remember seeing a well-reasoned article with the above claim as its major thesis. (Note, I'm looking for "why the Singularity won't happen" rather than "why the Singularity is a bad idea" or "why technology is not accelerating".)
I've been eager for this piece ever since I learned of the Singularity concept. I know of the "objections" chapter in Kurzweil's Singularity is Near, the relevant parts of Vinge's seminal essay, as well the ideas of Lanier, Huebner, and a few others, but in all the millions of words out there I can't remember seeing a well-reasoned article with the above claim as its major thesis. (Note, I'm looking for "why the Singularity won't happen" rather than "why the Singularity is a bad idea" or "why technology is not accelerating".)
Joshua
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