This argument was one of the many exposed by John Horgan in his "The
End of Science" in the 90s. And there is a more recent and highly
controversial article that claims it is already happening:
http://tinyurl.com/n6zsk
Interesting article, thanks. I think he's half right.
That is, we have passed a peak, but not because we're approaching the ultimate economic limits of technology. What's happened is that we've fully developed industrial technology, and good-enough data processing, but we're still a long way yet from the next stages of being able to get computers to be smart about handling data, and start building molecular machinery; so basically we're trekking across a long dry plateau and hoping to make it to the other side. Doesn't mean there won't be major innovations coming down the pipeline if and when we do get to the other side.
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