The situation in AGI seems akin to that in space science, where many well-trained researchers in the field tell us that there is no future in human space flight, and that we should limit our dreams to unmanned exploration.
Can anyone suggest historical examples of fields where almost none of the scientific or engineering establishment would accept the possibility of a breakthrough, which nonetheless soon came? What was the situation in nuclear physics in 1935, before the great advances towards the Manhattan Project, or in fluid physics and mechanical engineering in 1895, before the Wright Brothers? Or can someone give some other cases? I am not referring to the usual quotes from isolated skeptical senior scientists, nor to dismissiveness from the lay population, but to a situation where the entire field ignores an upcoming breakthrough. And conversely, what is an area where an entire field recognized the possibility of revolutionary change, which in fact came? General computing of the last 60 years? Spaceflight engineering in 1953? Joshua 2007/3/19, Shane Legg <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
Ben, I think these things go in cycles. AI had its time of big funding, but that didn't produce much and so it stopped. The impression I get with string theory is that pressure is building up to cut it back unless it comes up with better results. At least in the case of string theory they can produce lots of fancy mathematics which counts as a kind of "evidence", or more accurately, it makes it count as "serious science". With the Genome project at least it was clearly a finite goal that would eventually be achieved. Funders like that because they feel confident that what they are funding will eventually be done. With AGI, well a lot of people still seem unsure if it is even possible, and if it is then it might happen in a few hundred years. Funders don't like that story much. Of course some of us believe otherwise... Shane ------------------------------ This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=11983
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