Joshua Fox wrote:
The situation in AGI seems akin to that in space science, where many
well-trained researchers in the field tell us that there is no future in
human space flight, and that we should limit our dreams to unmanned
exploration.
Can anyone suggest historical examples of fields where almost none of
the scientific or engineering establishment would accept the possibility
of a breakthrough, which nonetheless soon came?
What was the situation in nuclear physics in 1935, before the great
advances towards the Manhattan Project, or in fluid physics and
mechanical engineering in 1895, before the Wright Brothers? Or can
someone give some other cases? I am not referring to the usual quotes
from isolated skeptical senior scientists, nor to dismissiveness from
the lay population, but to a situation where the entire field ignores an
upcoming breakthrough.
And conversely, what is an area where an entire field recognized the
possibility of revolutionary change, which in fact came? General
computing of the last 60 years? Spaceflight engineering in 1953?
Joshua
It sounds like you might be asking about paradigm shifts in the
technical sense of that term. Have you read Kuhn and Lakatos?
But then, it is extremely hard to generalize about such stuff. Remember
N-Rays.
Richard Loosemore
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