--- Mike Tintner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > AG: The mid-point of the singularity > window could be as close as 2009. A rediculously > pessimistic prediction > would put it around 2012.
We're pretty far off from having any kind of Singularity as it stands now. What do you think is going to happen in 2009-2012 that will qualify as a Singularity? > That would have to assume > that some large > external event has caused massive social disruption Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve under Reagan, puts the chance of such an event at 75% in the next five years. > and the people who > actually work on these algorithms are utter > blockheads who can't see > what it can truly do. The people working on the algorithms are smart; this does not imply they will succeed quickly or easily. It took the Manhattan Project, which had the pick of the country's top people, four years to engineer the bomb. All Singularity projects to date are much smaller and more poorly funded than the Manhattan was. > On the short side, we could > literally be hours > away from a hard takeoff (yes, I realize it's almost > August of 2007). >From where? Is there some kind of almost-to-completion AGI or nanotech effort that's being kept secret from all the transhumanist discussion lists? > Nuts. And ditto all such predictions or, er, > fantasies. > > Here are AG and others predicting when an AGI will, > so to speak, leap tall > buildings and fly, and AGI hasn't got to square one > - can't even crawl let > alone, stand up or take a first step. By the time the AGI has enough intelligence to say "Hi!", I'm betting that at least 50% of the work will already be done. > There isn't an > AGI system that has > shown, in even the most modest way, higher > adaptivity - the capacity, in any > given activity, to find new kinds of paths, or take > new kinds of steps, to > its goals - which are, by definition, not derived > from its original > programming. The capacity, say, to find a new kind > of path through a maze or > forest. Pathfinding programs, to my knowledge, are actually quite advanced (due primarily to commerical investment). Open up a copy of Warcraft III or any other modern computer game and click to make a character go from one end of the map to the other. How does it find a correct route? Pathfinding AIs. > From that will come the capacity to learn > new kinds of activities, > without preprogramming. (Put that another way - > there isn't a single system > that can transcend its programming). What do you mean by "transcend" here? If we get an AGI that's smart enough to predictably modify its own programming, that is very, very dangerous. > Make a reasoned prediction about AGI taking that > first step or crawl - point > me to who's going to do it and roughly how and when. > And then maybe, we can > talk about when superAGI's will fly.. Otherwise it's > all mathematical > masturbation. You could say that about just about any branch of science, up to and including Newton's theory of gravity (when it was first developed). Name one immediate, practical application of Newtownian mechanics. > > > > ----- > This list is sponsored by AGIRI: > http://www.agiri.org/email > To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: > http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; > - Tom ____________________________________________________________________________________ Be a better Heartthrob. Get better relationship answers from someone who knows. Yahoo! Answers - Check it out. http://answers.yahoo.com/dir/?link=list&sid=396545433 ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&id_secret=26931542-089597
